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Commerzbank德国商业Das slog步履维艰The second-biggest bank in Europes strongest economy still faces an uphill task欧洲最强经济体的第二大仍然面对提高业绩任务。Jul 27th 2013 | Berlin |From the print editionCOMMERZBANKS marketing materials show a woman running in a grey, hooded jumper, headphones in her ears. Her eyes are locked on the path ahead in determination to finish her workout. This is probably meant to flatter the banks customers as gritty and hard-working. But it is a better metaphor for the bank itself. It is on a long, hard road back to health, a journey that exemplifies the painful reshaping of Europes troubled banking system to be smaller, safer and more domestic.德国商业的营销材料上画着一名女子,身穿灰色衣跑步,带着连衣帽,耳朵里塞着耳机。眼神坚毅,死死盯着前方的路,志在完成自己的锻炼计划。这可能是在讨好自己的客户,暗指他们都是坚韧不拔,工作勤奋。但是这个隐喻或许更贴合自身的实际。德国商业离回到良性发展还有很长的路。这是欧洲陷入危机的体系转向更小,更安全和更本土化的痛苦转型的很好的例。Commerzbanks initial trajectory through the crisis resembles that of another European lender, Britains Lloyds Banking Group (LBG). Like LBG, it was a big bank but not the biggest in the country—Deutsche Bank is Germanys colossus. Like Lloyds, it undertook a disastrous domestic transaction at the worst possible time, buying Dresdner Bank in the summer of 2008 just weeks before LBG gobbled up HBOS. And like the British bank, it quickly ended up tapping state coffers to survive.德国商业度过危机的初始轨迹很想另一家欧洲,英国的劳埃德斯集团。跟劳埃德斯一样,德国商业是本国的一家大型,但却不是最大的,德国最大的是德意志。德国商业同样经历了一次灾难性的国内收购。它在2008年夏天买下了德累斯顿,这是在劳埃德斯吞并苏格兰哈利法斯克几周之后。同样的,很快以向国库求救自保结束。The parallels between the two are less obvious now. LBGs shares have risen by 33% in the past three months, and by 133% in the past year. The banks share price hovers just below the price the British government paid to buy its 39% stake, which will soon be sold. Things look far less fizzy at Commerzbank. At the time of the rescue deal the banks boss, Martin Blessing, declared that state ownership should last a maximum of 36 months. More than four years on, its shares still lag the broader index of European banks; its price-to-book ratio is one of the lowest on the continent (see chart). Its 2012 net profit came in at a mere 6m euros(7.7m dollars).两者现在的处境有所不同。劳埃德斯的股价在过去的三个月中上涨了33%,在去年上涨了133%。该的股价稍稍低于英国政府购买其39%股份时的价格,英国政府很快就会将这笔股份卖掉。德国商业的处境则要惨得多。德国政府救助与其交易的时候,老板Martin Blessing说,国有权最多持续36个月。而现在,四年过去了,其股价仍旧低于欧洲的大盘指数。其市净率在欧洲处于最低水平。而在2012年的净利润也只有600万欧(770万美元)。Rumours that the German government might sell its 17% stake to a foreign bank were scotched this week. Newspapers speculate whether the bank might exit the DAX, the countrys benchmark stockmarket index, leaving Deutsche as the only member bank. Deutsche itself still labours to plump up its own thin capital cushion.本周,德国政府出售其控股的17%给一家外国的谣言四起。媒体纷纷推测德国商业会不会退出德国DAX指数,这样该指数就只剩德意志一家股了。德意志也忙着增加其缓冲资金。Commerzbank can point to several forces beyond its control. The euro-zone crisis weighs heavily. The restructuring of Greek government debt handed it a big loss. Historically low interest rates have depressed income. Competition from Germanys many small savings banks and co-operatives puts pressure on fees; online banks are adding to the pressure. A downturn in shipbuilding has hit Commerzbanks big portfolio of loans in that industry. The Basel 3 rules have prompted the bank to retain capital rather than dole it out to shareholders. (The bank estimates that its Tier-1 core capital ratio under Basel 3 is 8.4% after a May capital-raising.)德国商业能将原因归咎于几个它无法控制的因素。欧元区危机无疑是最大的因素。希腊政府债务重组给其造成了重大损失。史上最低的利率也减少了其收入。来自德国的许多小型储蓄的竞争也使其降低自身费用,网上也增加了其压力。造船业的衰退也使得其在造船业德组合贷款业务受到沉重打击。巴塞尔3资本规定使得德国商业只能保留资本,而不能发放给股东。(估计,在巴塞尔3规定下,其一级核心资本比率在五月融资之后达到8.4%)For one bank to have had so much bad luck prompts the question of just how much carelessness, not misfortune, is to blame. Like many European banks, both Commerzbank and Dresdner invested in subprime-mortgage-backed assets before the crisis. And like many of its continental peers, the bank was also a big international lender against chunky assets in areas like shipping, aviation and property. About a quarter of its 18.3 billion euros shipping portfolio is non-performing; it is expected to take a charge against lending in Detroit when it next reports results.对于一家来说,这么多倒霉事儿遇到一起,只能怪其太粗心,而不能说太不幸了。跟许多其他欧洲一样,德国商业和德累斯顿在危机之前都投资了次贷资产。这个也借贷给船舶业,航空业和房地产业。其在船舶业投资达183亿欧,其中有四分之一毫无收益,等下次报告出来该行有可能向底特律的借贷提起指控。Analysts want Commerzbank to keep shedding these “non-core” assets, which stood at 151 billion euros at the end of 2012. Some are easier to offload than others. Holdings of peripheral euro-zone government bonds can be gently unwound by letting them run off. But shipping and property loans are longer-term and less liquid, which is why they are now being treated more harshly under the Basel 3 rules. Commerzbank did this month at last manage to sell the British operations of EuroHypo, its commercial-property arm.分析员希望德国商业能放弃非核心资产,这些在2012年底占到1510亿欧。有些很容易脱手。所持欧元区其他国家政府的债券会轻微受损。但是船舶业和房地产业的贷款是长期的,流动性也差,这也是在巴塞尔3规则下更严厉的原因。德国商业这个月末最终准备卖掉欧洲抵押的英国公司,其商业地产分。As Commerzbank slims down these parts of its balance-sheet, a more Germanic lender is slowly emerging. The strategy is plausible. The combination with Dresdner gave Commerzbank an enviably big retail-branch network and customer base in Europes strongest economy. The Mittelstandsbank, the division lending to Germanys small and medium-sized, mostly family-owned businesses, is in decent health: 30% of Mittelstand companies are customers, and the pre-tax return on equity in this unit was 28.6% in 2012, against 3.1% for the group overall. As these firms go into global markets, where savings banks cannot follow, Commerzbank has a shot at boosting its business with them. Expansion in Poland looks sensible.随着德国商业将这些从资产负债表中除去,一个更德国的借贷者出现了。这个战略看起来是有效的。跟德累斯顿的合并会使得德国商业在欧洲最强经济体拥有一个令人羡慕的大型零售网络和顾客基础。中小企业掌管德国的中小企业贷款业务,这些中小企业中很多都是家族企业,2012年,这一业务的税前回报为28.6%,整体业务只有3.1%的回报。随着这些企业的国际化,储蓄就无能为力了。德国商业有意拓展跟他们的业务。在波兰的扩张看起来很有用。Yet the bank is still some way from turning this vision into reality. A banking consultant quips that the maths of the Dresdner deal amount to “one plus one equals one”. And a domestic focus has its downsides. Fierce local competition from the savings banks and co-operatives will not go away. Nor will the drag from the euro zones economic prospects: interest rates will remain low as long as inflation stays subdued.然而,德国商业还是应该回到现实。一个业顾问指出,这次的德累斯顿交易是一次亏本买卖。国内的重点业务呈下降趋势。来自储蓄的激烈的本地竞争不会停止。欧元区的经济预期是只要通货膨胀得到抑制,利率将会持续走低。这也会拖累复兴。So Mr Blessing and his team have little choice but to concentrate on the nuts and bolts. That includes making more cuts in branches and staff (branches have aly fallen from about 1,500 to 1,200), controlling their tempo so that the bank can reap savings without battering its franchise. One part of this is greater flexibility in the offerings at each branch. Not every location needs an expert in everything; more advice can be given online or over the phone. Another is growth in its online division, comdirect. Commerzbank has the scale to build a sophisticated offering; savings banks and co-operatives may not.因此,Blessing先生跟他的团队没有多大选择,只能是集中精力做好细节工作。包括减少分机构,裁员(分机构已经从1500个减少到1200个了),控制好节奏,只有这样才能从存款中获利,并且不影响其经营。这在各分有很大的灵活性。不是每个地方都需要专家,可以通过电话或者网络提供建议。还有一个是网上分的增加。德国商业能提供各种复杂的务,但是储蓄则不能。Such strengths should eventually return Commerzbank to fitness. But the miserable share price suggests that investors expect a period of plodding before it is back to running at full tilt.这些措施应该最终能使得德国商业回到正轨。但是其可怜的股价意味着投资者期望其走出困境之前有一段时间的辛勤工作。 /201308/250788Business商业报道Myanmar gets y for business缅甸努力为外国投资做好准备Opening soon正在开放Big opportunities and big problems for firms in Myanmar对于投资缅甸的企业来说,巨大的机遇与巨大的风险并存IT DOESNT happen every day that a country of 60m people in the most dynamic region of the world is suddenly open for business,在世界上最有活力的地区内,具有六千万人口的国家一夜之间就放开了商业上的限制,这种事儿可不常见。argues Hans Vriens, a consultant in Singapore.新加坡国顾问汉森威尔森如此说道。He is describing the prospects in Myanmar, as the once isolated country moves from a military dictatorship to something less ghastly.他所描述的正是缅甸国内发生的变化,一个曾经封闭的国家从军官独裁之恐怖局势中解脱出来的过程。Rich in teak, minerals, oil, gas and much else, half a century ago Myanmar was one of the more prosperous countries in the region.凭借着丰富的柚树、石油、天然气和其他资源,缅甸半个世纪以前曾是东南亚区域内相对富有的国家之一。Decades of state socialism, oppression and sanctions put paid to that.但是国内数十年不成功的社会主义化进程,以及来做国外的压迫、制裁却使得这些优势消耗殆尽。But now Myanmar seems to be rejoining the real world. The army has relaxed its grip somewhat,不过现在,缅甸看起来又要重新回到世界舞台了。and the government is angling for foreign investment. Will the economy regain its former lustre?军方已一定程度上放松了对国家的控制,政府也尽力争取国外的投资。那么,缅甸国的经济能否重新恢复往日的光呢?Myanmars reforms may win diplomatic rewards.缅甸的改革也许可以赢来外交上的回报。America and the European Union imposed sweeping economic sanctions in the 1990s to punish the regime for stealing elections and jailing opponents.美国和欧盟曾在20世纪90年代向缅甸实行全面的经济制裁以对其无视选民的选举权利并且关押反对派人士的行为做出惩罚;These may be lifted.缅甸改革以后,这些制裁都有可能被取消,That would allow foreign firms, and particularly Western ones, to pour in.进而海外的尤其是来自西方国家的企业,将大量进入缅甸市场。Some countries are moving aly.有一些国家已经开始行动。America is allowing IMF and World Bank teams to visit the country in part to help the government modernise its sclerotic financial system.现在美国正允许世界货币基金组织以及世界的工作组在一些领域内访问缅甸以帮助该国政府扭转僵化的金融系统、实现现代化。The EU has abolished visa restrictions on leading government members and is expected to announce further relaxations in April.欧盟则已经针对主要的政府成员解除了签限制,并有预测指出四月份,更多的限制会被放宽。Western firms are excited by the countrys big population, abundant natural resources and palpable demand for modern products and services.缅甸国的巨大人口,丰富的自然资源以及对现代化产品和务的明确需求都让西方企业激动不已。Myanmars clocks stopped some time in the early 1960s, after the generals took over, so its citizens are hungry for just about everything.20世纪60年代军官独占统治权后,缅甸的社会曾经一度停止发展,因而现在,缅甸人民对即将到来的一切都如饥似渴。Few people own cars and the gleaming malls and supermarkets that infest much of Asia are largely absent.目前缅甸国内几乎无人拥有汽车,大多数亚洲国家内都成批出现的豪华购物中心或豪华超市也都在缅甸国内不见踪影。Mr Vriens says investors see opportunities everywhere, from finance to hotels to food processing.威尔森先生说投资者在金融,酒店乃至食品加工等各个领域内都可以看到机会。Myanmars new government is embracing Western investors.缅甸的新政府非常欢迎西方国家的投资者。During the years of sanctions, the main large investors were Chinese firms keen to extract oil, timber and other natural resources.在多年制裁后,现在主要的大规模投资者是将目光放在石油,木材等自然资源上的中国企业。Few of these firms did much for local workers, or paid much heed to the environment. Now Myanmar has other options.但是大部分这些企业都既不关注当地环境,也没有帮助改善当地工人的生活状况。现在,缅甸国有其他选择了。To make the country more attractive to foreign investors, the government is trying to rush through broad reforms of its legal and economic system in just a year.当国政府正努力加紧在一年内完成从法律系统到经济系统的广泛改革。New land and investment laws are being drafted, special economic zones created and advice solicited from all quarters.新的国土与投资法律正在起草之中,经济特区已划好,更多的建议也从不同的地区被征集。Officials are painting the country as the strategic nexus between China, India and South-East Asia,中国、印度与东南亚是当下世界范围内增长速度最快的三大市场,with easy access to the three fastest-growing markets in the world.凭借着通向这些市场的绿色通道,缅甸官员正努力将缅甸建设为中国、印度与东南亚之间的战略纽带。However, it will still be a hard place in which to do business.但是,当下缅甸依然不是投资的理想环境。First, the exchange rate is rigged.首先,该国汇率受到操控。The official rate is 6 kyat to the dollar;官方利率是6缅元对1美元;the more realistic black-market rate is about 800.但黑市上的利率却是800:1,这一比率更真实。The country lacks a proper banking system.其次,该国也缺少真正的系统。In the new spirit of openness, officials concede that corruption is endemic.在开放的战略下,官方终于承认腐败现象在地方盛行。That is putting it mildly:如下事实以温和的方式表述了现状:Transparency International, a watchdog, ranks it 180th out of 183 countries. Building a functioning legal system could take a long time.监管机构透明国际,将该国在全部183个国家中放到了第180个位置。显然缅甸国想建立起真正发挥作用的法律系统还尚需时日。A few firms have done well in Myanmar for years, despite sanctions.尽管制裁政策的存在,依然有一些企业对在缅甸的国商业投资上表现不错。Total, a French oil firm, is used to doing business in nasty places.道达尔,一家法国石油公司,就曾经在使人不悦的土地上成功投资。DHL, a German delivery company, has profited from the absence of a reliable postal service.敦豪快运公司,一家德国物流企业,也曾经在缺少可靠邮政务的情况下顺利盈利。But these are exceptions.但是这些公司都是特例。If Myanmar wants to join the broad-based Asian boom, it will have to keep reforming for years to come.如果缅甸想要在亚洲广泛的增长局势中分一杯羹,它还需先经历多年改革才行。 /201305/242085Business商业报道Solar power in India印度太阳能Waiting for the sun等待着艳阳Is the sun the answer to Indias energy problems?太阳能是印度能源问题的解决办法吗?ON A salt plain near the border with Pakistan lies half a billion dollars worth of solar-energy kit paid for by firms from all over the world.靠近巴基斯坦边界的一块盐地,安装了来自全球的公司价值五亿美元的太阳能设备。A million panels stretch as far as the eye can see.目所能及的就有一百万块太阳能板了。Past a dishevelled brass band is a tent crammed with 5,000 people who cheer when Narendra Modi, the chief minister of Gujarat, declares the solar park open:穿过一群散乱的铜管乐队就是一个挤满了正在欢庆的5000人帐篷区,此时,古吉拉特邦的首席部长纳伦德拉·莫迪宣布太阳能电厂正式运行,I pray, sun god, that today Gujarat will show the way to the rest of the world for solar energy.我希望太阳神庇护我们,今天古吉拉特邦将向世界其他地方展示通向太阳能的道路。Despite the uncomfortable cult of personality around Mr Modi, Gujarat is an easy place to do business.除了对莫迪的个人崇拜令人感到不舒外,古吉拉特邦还是一个容易经商的地方。And solar power would appear to be an obvious winner for India.而太阳能仿佛令印度成为了最大的赢家。The country has plenty of sun and flat, idle land.印度境内有充沛的阳光和许多平坦闲置的用地。India is energy-hungry, but electricity supply is sporadic.而它又是一个能源缺乏的国家,电力供应时常不足。Costly diesel generators are popular. Solar power could replace them.连昂贵的柴油发电机在这里也很畅销。And solar parks, which look like giant Lego kits, are easier to build than conventional power plants.这方面太阳能可以替代。至于看上去像巨大的乐高积木桶的太阳能发电厂,比起建造传统的发电厂要容易多。The new park, in a place called Charanka, has just over 200 megawatts of capacity running, making it the biggest site in India.最新的电厂,建在Charanka,拥有超过200兆瓦发电量,使其成为印度最大的电力厂。It took 16 months to build. No one builds nuclear power stations nearly that fast.它花了16个月去建造,没有人能用这速度建造出原子能发电站。Two other factors make an Indian solar boom seem possible.还有两个原因使印度的太阳能得到广泛使用成为可能。Conventional energy generation, which in India means burning cheap but dirty local coal, is a mess.传统能源的生产十分混乱,在印度是通过燃烧便宜但污染大的煤炭来发电的。Power stations charge local electricity boards 3-4 rupees per kilowatt hour.发电站以每度电约3~4卢比卖给当地的供电局。The state coal monopoly is unable to dig up enough of the black stuff, forcing power firms to buy pricier imported coal.国家垄断了煤炭,却无法开采足够的量,这迫使能源公司购买更贵的进口煤炭。Hopes that India might find abundant natural gas off its coast have been dashed.印度期望能在远离海岸线的地方找到丰富的天然气的愿望已经破灭。Many observers think the price of conventional power will have to rise to 5-6 rupees.许多观测者认为传统能源价格将上升5~6卢比。Meanwhile, the cost of solar equipment has fallen by a third since 2010, reckons Alan Rosling of Kiran Energy,与此同时,一间由美国私募基金注资的太阳能公司—Kiran能源的阿兰?罗斯林指出,自2010年以后,a solar firm backed by American private equity.太阳能装备的花费已经下降了三分之一。Cheaper solar and pricier conventional power have persuaded many that solar will soon be competitive without subsidies.相对便宜的太阳能与较贵的传统能源令更多的人在没有补贴的情况下仍选择更有竞争力的太阳能。V. Saibaba, the boss of Lanco Solar, a firm that makes and operates solar parks, says that by 2016 Indian solar will match the price of conventional electricity.负责建造与运营太阳能发电厂的兰科太阳能公司的领导V. Saibaba说,到2016年印度的太阳能价格将接近传统电力的价格。That should mean a building boom.这意味着太阳能发电厂的建造潮将到来。Sunil Gupta of Standard Chartered, a bank, reckons Indias share of new global solar installations will rise from 1% this year to 5% by 2015.渣打的Sunil Gupta指出,印度的太阳能设备安装量在全球的份额将从今年的1%上升到2015年的5%。Indias central government has set a target for 20,000MW of installed solar generation by 2022, from under 1,000MW today.印度政府设定了一个指标,到2022年,安装的太阳能发电量将从现在的1000百万瓦以下上升到20,000百万瓦。That would still represent a miserly 5% or less of total power-generation capacity in India,这显得有点保守,因为这只是印度总发电量的5%,甚至更少。and cost perhaps billion-40 billion to build—a fraction of the investment in new coal-fired plants.投资约300亿美元~400亿美元去建造太阳能发电厂,而这只是相当于投资于新建的火力发电站的一小部分。So plenty of folk think the official target will be smashed.所以很多人认为官方目标将难以达成。D.J. Pandian, a civil servant in charge of energy policy in Gujarat, believes his state alone will easily reach 10,000MW of capacity in a decade.D.J. Pandian,一位负责古吉拉特邦能源问题的官员则相信,单单古吉拉特邦在十年内就将轻易地达到10,000百万瓦的发电量。But not everyone agrees.但不是每一个人都认同。Half of these plants wont be here in ten years, says a German boss at the new solar park—bad news,这些厂的一半在十年内都不会建在这里,一位在新的太阳能发电厂的德国领导说。since the contracts are for 25 years.他指出,坏消息是,因为合同是25年,Too many firms have cut corners, he reckons.导致太多公司节省成本。A Chinese executive raises his eyebrows at Indias plans to force solar firms to buy some equipment locally.一位中国执行官听了印度计划迫使太阳能公司购买当地的某些设备后扬起了眉毛。The supply chain and economies of scale are not there, he says.供应链以及经济规模还不理想。他说。An American manager scoffs: Weve all been coming to India for years and theyll never get there…一位美国经理调侃到,我们全部来印度已经多年了,清楚他们还没有达到那程度,They dont have the infrastructure.他们没有基础设施。The difficulty of getting plugged into the grid and a shortage of water to clean panels are common worries.难以接入电网以及因水的短缺而致难以清理太阳能板是常见的忧虑。Solar faces two other problems.太阳能普及面对两个问题。First, Gujarats state government has guaranteed high prices of 15 rupees for the first 12 years of operation to solar producers,第一个是,古吉拉特邦的政府要求确保太阳能生产商每度电15卢比的高价,作为第一个12年内的运营成本,which should mean they make money.这也意味着他们可以盈利。But at the national level there is a separate system.但在国家层面上仍有一个分流制。It relies on reverse auctions in which those solar producers who commit to producing power at the lowest cost win the right to operate.那些太阳能制造商是依靠逆向拍卖选出的,谁能用最低的成本生产能源,谁就能获得运营的权利。In the second national solar auction, of 350MW, in December, the winning firms committed themselves to selling solar power for as little as 7.5 rupees.在12月的第二个国家级太阳能运营拍卖会,其产能为350百万瓦,竞拍成功的公司已经承诺,他们将用低至每度7.5卢比的价格卖太阳能。Many people doubt that it is possible to make money at these prices.很多人怀疑按这些价格到底能不能实现盈利。An Indian engineer says the auction was a farce and that it is impossible to build a solid plant and operate it for less than 10 rupees.一位印度工程师说拍卖会只是一场闹剧,建立一个固定的工厂并以低于每度10卢比的价格运营它,这是不可能的。Firms bidding below, say, 8.5 rupees must assume that technology will improve, equipment prices will keep falling,参与投标的厂商们也说,要是技术得到提升,而设备价格又持续下降,or that they can make their sums work by borrowing cheap dollars rather than dear rupees.或者说他们能通过借到廉价的美元而不是昂贵的卢比来总结工作。只有这样,每度电8.5卢比才显得有可能。Second, if prices do not fall steeply, there may be little appetite for solar power.此外,如果价格没有快速下降,可能很少人会愿意使用太阳能。The grid is rickety.电网也变得摇摇欲坠。Many states distribution firms are financial zombies.许多国家的流通企业都是金融僵尸。Today the cost of solar subsidies is hidden—pooled with the overall generation bill in states such as Gujarat or,今天太阳能补贴的费用被隐藏了—像古吉拉特邦,统计在全部的账单中,或许,for projects under the national scheme, buried in the finances of a big state-owned conventional power firm.根据国家计划的项目,埋藏了一个大型的传统国有能源企业的资产。Such bureaucratic subterfuge works on a small scale.像这些官僚式的托词只影响了一小范围。But if the bill for solar swells, it is not hard to imagine the kind of public backlash against subsidies that has hit cash-strapped Europe.但要是太阳能的账单变大,不难想象,公众对补贴的不满将冲击欧洲的经济。Indias politicians may then start to ignore contracts.印度的政客可能将开始不履行合约。To solve Indias energy problems, solar firms must deliver blindingly low prices.要解决印度的能源问题,太阳能公司必须盲目地实现低价卖电。 点击此处下载本期经济学人讲解PDF与音频字幕 /201306/244631

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