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明星资讯腾讯娱乐2019年10月18日 00:01:57
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【新闻精讲】Climate change may be partly to blame for the massive die-off of pine trees in the western U.S. But it works the other way, too: forest die-offs can alter the global climate.美国西部松树大规模死亡,部分原因可能要归咎于气候变化。但是,反过来也说的通:森林灭绝可以改变全球气候。Massive强调非常大的例:There was evidence of massive fraud.有据表明是巨额欺诈。Die-off extinct 绝种的例:At the current rate of decline, many of the rain forest animals could become extinct in less than 10 years.按照目前的下降速度,许多雨林动物不到十年就会绝种。the other way 反之We know, all of us, that open trade works better than the other way around.我们所有人都知道,开放贸易比相反的贸易方式更有效。;I like thinking of this as a parallel to something like El Nino.; Abigail Swann, an ecological climatologist at the University of Washington.“我喜欢将这看作是类似厄尔尼诺的现象。”阿比盖尔#8226;斯万是华盛顿大学的生态气候学家Parallel1. 类似的事情例:Readers familiar with military conflict will find a vague parallel to the Vietnam War.熟悉军事冲突的读者们会发现一个和越南战争大致相似的事件。2. 与…同时发生例:Often there are emotional reasons paralleling the financial ones.经济原因的常常伴有情感原因。3,平行的例:...seventy-two ships, drawn up in two parallel lines.…72艘船,停靠成两条平行线。;We think these are also going to have climate impacts far away from where those forests are dying. So its going to ricochet in other places around the globe.;“我们认为这也会对远离森林灭绝的地方产生影响。所以,也会在全球其他地区产生反弹Impact1. 影响例:They say they expect the meeting to have a marked impact on the future of the country. 他们说期望这次会议对国家的未来产生显著的影响。2. 撞击; 撞击力例:The plane is destroyed, a complete wreck: the pilot must have died on impact.飞机被毁,完全成了一堆残骸:飞行员一定在撞击中丧生了。Ricochet 反弹; 弹起例:He was wounded in the shoulder by a ricochet.他被一颗弹起的子弹打伤了肩膀。To model those ;ricochet; effects, Swann and her colleagues used climate simulations to wipe out forests and replace them with grasslands, in the western U.S., the Amazon, or both.为了模拟“反弹”效应,斯她的同事在美国西部和亚马逊地区,利用气候模拟森林被毁灭然后用草原取而代之的情况。Simulation注意!Stimulate 刺激模拟; 模拟结果例: Training includes realistic simulation of casualty procedures.训练包括伤亡处理程序的实际模拟。wipe out 摧毁;毁灭;使灭绝;例句:Wild pacific salmon are being wiped out.野生太平洋大马哈鱼就要绝种了。They found that losing forests in one part of the globe does indeed affect climate very far away.他们发现,全球部分地区的森林消失确实会对气候变化产生深远影响。Indeed1. 表示确实强调例:Later, he admitted that the payments had indeed been made.后来,他承认说的确是付过款了。2. (表示递进语气) 其实强调例:We have nothing against diversity; indeed, we want more of it.我们并不反对多样化;其实,我们希望有更多的多样化。Affect very far away. affect profoundly;And that could be negative in a lot of places, it could be bad for the ecosystems in another places, but you could come up with scenarios where it makes the conditions a little bit better.;“同时,这会对很多地区造成负面影响,森林消失会影响生态系统,但是你可以提出解决方案使情况变得好一些。”come up with 想出,提出(计划、想法等);例句:The programmer come up with a solution to the system problem.程序员想出了一个解决系统问题的办法。Scenario设想; 可能的情况 gt; 方案情节例:The conflict degenerating into civil war is everybodys nightmare scenario.这场冲突恶化成内战成为每个人的恶梦。For example, killing off trees in western North America leads to cooler temps globally. That outcome means lower productivity in Siberian forests—a negative. It also dries up forests in the Carolinas—another negative.比如,北美西部地区的树木死亡会导致全球温度变冷。这个后果意味着西伯利亚森林的生产率会降低,这是其中一个负面影响。这还会使卡罗莱纳州的森林枯竭,这是另外一个负面影响。kill off 全部杀死;灭绝;例句:Their natural predators have been killed off.它们的天敌被全部杀死。Temp 温度Outcome 结果例:Mr. Green said he was pleased with the outcome.格林先生说他对此结果感到满意dry up (使)枯萎;(使)干透;例句:The small brook nearly dried up.这条小河沟几乎干涸了。But conditions will get wetter in eastern South America—a positive for the forests there. The results are in the journal PLoS ONE.但是,南美州东部地区的气候会变得更加湿润,这是积极影响。该研究结果发表在《公共科学图书馆#8226;综合》期刊上。Condition1. 状况例:He remains in a critical condition in a California hospital.他在加利福尼亚的一家医院里,仍处于危急的状况。2. 条件例:Its easy to make a wrong turn here even under ideal weather即使在非常理想的天气条件下,也很容易在这里拐错弯。3. 环境例:People are living in appalling conditions.人们生活在极其恶劣的环境中。One surprise, though, was that when researchers erased forests in both the Amazon and the western U.S.—it had an unpredictable, synergistic effect on global climate.但是令人惊奇的是,当研究人将亚马逊地区和美国西部地区的森林都清除以后,对全球气候造成了不可预测的协同效应。“Erase clear抹去; 消除例:They are desperate to erase the memory of that last defeat.他们急于抹去上次失败的记忆。Synergistic Synergy协同作用 (The interaction of two or more agents or forces so that their combined effect is greater than the sum of their individual effects. )例:Of course, theres quite obviously a lot of synergy between the two companies.当然,这两家公司之间显然有许多的协同作用。;If we were to think about forest management around the globe, it really suggests we should manage in a coordinated manner rather than independent entities.这表明,如果我们从全球范围考虑森林管理,我们应该以协调方式进行管理,而不是将其视为独立实体。Coordinate1. 协调 (If you coordinate an activity, you organize the various people and things involved in it.)例:Government officials visited the earthquake zone on Thursday morning to coordinate the relief effort.政府官员星期四上午视察了地震灾区以协调救灾工作。2. 搭配 (衣、饰品)例:Shell show you how to coordinate pattern and colours.她会向你展示如何搭配款式和颜色。3, 坐标例:Can you give me your coordinates?能给我你的坐标吗?Because the climate response to these changes in forest cover is going to be a function of all of them happening at the same time.;因为气候对于森林植被变化所产生的反应就像是同时发生的作用。”forest cover 森林覆盖function1. 作用例:The main function of the investment banks is to raise capital for industry.各投资的主要作用是为产业筹集资金。serve a function of 产生作用The club serves a useful function as a meeting place.2. 宴会; 社交聚会例:...a private function hosted by one of his students由他的一个学生做东的一场私人宴会。We do do that to some extent—like managing tropical deforestation through the U.N. But this study suggests we need to keep it up, and do even better, if we want to see the global forest for the trees.我们也在某种程度上这样做过,例如,通过联合国管理热带森林砍伐。但是,该研究表明,如果我们想看到长满树木的全球森林,那我们就要坚持下去,而且要做得更好。 to some extent to some degree 某种程度To some extent, this will happen in South America as well. 在某种程度上,南美洲也会发生相同的情形。keep up 继续做(或提供);例句:You cant keep up the pretense any longer.你无法继续伪装下去了。201703/498341They can look at the likelihood他们可以分析概率that you should be given health insurance建议你应该买医疗保险because you come from a family因为你的家族that has a history of heart disease.有心脏病史They can look at the likelihood或是基于你每天参与的that youre going to get Alzheimers disease脑力劳动的量because of the amount of active intellectual entertainment他们可以分析概率you take part in on a day-to-day basis.判断你是否会得阿兹海默症And when you start giving this level of当你开始交出生活中minute control over peoples lives,这种层次的细微控制时then you allow far too much power over individuals.那你便是让过多的外界力量来控制个体了The picture painted is certainly dark这种情形必然是可怕的but there is another way.但也可以另寻出路It comes from the insights of a scientist这条路来自一位科学家的深刻见解whose work once seemed like a footnote在互联网的历史长河中in the history of the internet他的工作曾被看作是无足轻重until now.直到如今才被人重视The story begins in the late 70s in Berkeley, California.故事始于七十年代末加州大学伯克利分校重点解释:1.come from 来自; 起源例句:We heard clink come from that room.我们听到那个屋子传来叮当声。2.because of 由于例句:We win the game because of his participation.由于他的参与,我们赢了比赛。3.control over 控制例句:The horse was frightened but the rider soon got control over it.那匹马受了惊,但骑师很快就把它控制住。201701/488277

A few years ago, I broke into my own house.几年前,我闯入了自己的家。I had just driven home, it was around midnight in the dead of Montreal winter,我开车回到家,在蒙特利尔的寒冬,大约午夜时分,I had been visiting my friend, Jeff, across town, and the thermometer on the front porch minus 40 degrees我开车从城镇一边到另一边,去看望我的朋友Jeff,门廊上的温度计显示零下40度and dont bother asking if thats Celsius or Fahrenheit, minus 40 is where the two scales meet -- it was very cold.不需要知道是摄氏度还是华氏度, 到了零下40度,两个温度显示都一样--天气非常冷。And as I stood on the front porch fumbling in my pockets, I found I didnt have my keys.当我站在门廊,摸索着我的口袋时,我发现找不到钥匙了。In fact, I could see them through the window, lying on the dining room table where I had left them.实际上,我透过窗户能看到我的钥匙,我把它们留在了餐桌上。So I quickly ran around and tried all the other doors and windows, and they were locked tight.我赶紧围着房子转,找能进去的门和窗户,而它们都被锁紧了。I thought about calling a locksmith -- at least I had my cellphone,我想到打电话给锁匠,至少我还有手机,but at midnight, it could take a while for a locksmith to show up, and it was cold.但在午夜,锁匠要过来可能需要一段时间,并且天气真的很冷。I couldnt go back to my friend Jeffs house for the night because I had an early flight to Europe the next morning,当晚我又不能回朋友Jeff的家,因为第二天我要坐早班机到欧洲,and I needed to get my passport and my suitcase.我必须要进屋里拿护照和行李。So, desperate and freezing cold, I found a large rock and I broke through the basement window,因此,在绝望和寒冷中,我找到一块大石头,打破了地下室的窗户,cleared out the shards of glass, I crawled through, I found a piece of cardboard and taped it up over the opening,清理了玻璃碎片后,我爬进屋里,找到了一块硬纸板,用胶带把它封贴在打破的窗户上,figuring that in the morning, on the way to the airport, I could call my contractor and ask him to fix it.我想着早晨去机场的路上可以打电话给承包商,请他来修理窗户。This was going to be expensive, but probably no more expensive than a middle-of-the-night locksmith,修理费会很昂贵,但不会比在午夜时找锁匠来开锁更贵,so I figured, under the circumstances, I was coming out even.所以我觉得,在这种情况下,即使打破了窗户也还划得来。Now, Im a neuroscientist by training and I know a little bit about how the brain performs under stress.我是一个职业的神经科学家,我大概知道在压力下大脑是如何工作的。It releases cortisol that raises your heart rate, it modulates adrenaline levels and it clouds your thinking.大脑会释放皮质醇引起你的心率加速,它调节你的肾上腺素水平,并阻碍你的思维能力。So the next morning, when I woke up on too little sleep, worrying about the hole in the window,第二天早晨,我醒来的时候严重睡眠不足,还在担心窗户上打破的洞,and a mental note that I had to call my contractor, and the freezing temperatures, and the meetings I had upcoming in Europe,心里想着必须打电话给承包商,还有,天气非常寒冷,在欧洲有个会要开,and, you know, with all the cortisol in my brain, my thinking was cloudy,还有,因为我大脑释放的皮质醇,我的思维变得混沌,but I didnt know it was cloudy because my thinking was cloudy.但我没觉察到它很混沌,因为我的思维很混沌。And it wasnt until I got to the airport check-in counter, that I realized I didnt have my passport.直到我在登机手续办理柜台时,才意识到我忘了带护照。So I raced home in the snow and ice, 40 minutes, got my passport, raced back to the airport, I made it just in time,于是,我在冰天雪地中用了40分钟赶回家,拿了护照后,又赶回机场,刚好赶上了飞机,but they had given away my seat to someone else, so I got stuck in the back of the plane,但他们已把我的座位给了别人,我不得不坐在飞机最后一排,next to the bathrooms, in a seat that wouldnt recline, on an eight-hour flight.紧挨着洗手间,在八个小时的飞行中,我的座椅都不能往后倾。Well, I had a lot of time to think during those eight hours and no sleep.于是我就有了很多时间去思考,因为我在八小时中无法睡觉。And I started wondering, are there things that I can do, systems that I can put into place, that will prevent bad things from happening?我开始想,我能做些什么,有什么切实可行的方法可以防止不好的事发生呢?Or at least if bad things happen, will minimize the likelihood of it being a total catastrophe.或者至少,就算不好的事情真的会发生,也能把损失降到最小。So I started thinking about that, but my thoughts didnt crystallize until about a month later.所以,我开始思考这个问题,但我没有想出来,直到一个月后。I was having dinner with my colleague, Danny Kahneman, the Nobel Prize winner,我和同事,也是诺贝尔奖的获得者Danny Kahneman,去吃晚餐,and I somewhat embarrassedly told him about having broken my window, and, you know, forgotten my passport,我有点尴尬地告诉他,我打破窗户爬进屋里,还有忘记拿护照的事,and Danny shared with me that hed been practicing something called prospective hindsight.而Danny和我分享了他一直在练习的称为“预测后见之明”的东西。Its something that he had gotten from the psychologist Gary Klein,这是他从心理学家Gary Klein那里学到的。who had written about it a few years before, also called the pre-mortem.Gary前几年已经写了这个理论,也称为“事前剖析”。Now, you all know what the postmortem is.你们都知道事后剖析是什么意思。Whenever theres a disaster, a team of experts come in and they try to figure out what went wrong, right?每当有灾难,一个专家小组就会前去调查,尝试找出导致灾难的原因,对吧?Well, in the pre-mortem, Danny explained, you look ahead and you try to figure out all the things that could go wrong,而Danny解释,在事前剖析中,你要预测、尝试想出可能出错的所有事情,and then you try to figure out what you can do to prevent those things from happening, or to minimize the damage.然后你要尝试可能的方法来防止这些错误发生,或将损失降到最小。So what I want to talk to you about today are some of the things we can do in the form of a pre-mortem.所以,今天我想和你们谈谈关于在事前剖析中我们能做的一些事情。Some of them are obvious, some of them are not so obvious. Ill start with the obvious ones.有些方式是显而易见的,而有些则不那么明显。我先谈显而易见的方式。Around the home, designate a place for things that are easily lost.在家里,指定一个地方,放容易丢失的东西。Now, this sounds like common sense, and it is,这听起来就像是常识,也的确是,but theres a lot of science to back this up, based on the way our spatial memory works.但这符合我们空间记忆的工作原理,有很多科学依据持这一点。Theres a structure in the brain called the hippocampus, that evolved over tens of thousands of years,在我们大脑里,有一个叫海马体的结构,已经进化超过数万年了,to keep track of the locations of important things -- where the well is, where fish can be found,它可以追踪重要东西的位置--例如,水井的位置,能够发现鱼的地方,that stand of fruit trees, where the friendly and enemy tribes live.果树的位置,以及友好物种和敌对物种分别居住在哪里。The hippocampus is the part of the brain that in London taxicab drivers becomes enlarged.海马体是大脑的一部分,伦敦出租车司机的海马体结构通常比常人要大。Its the part of the brain that allows squirrels to find their nuts.松鼠能找到坚果,也要归功于它们大脑的海马体。And if youre wondering, somebody actually did the experiment你们可能对这点感到疑惑,但有人的确做了一个实验。where they cut off the olfactory sense of the squirrels, and they could still find their nuts.他们切掉了松鼠的嗅觉器官,松鼠仍然能找到它们的坚果。They werent using smell, they were using the hippocampus, this exquisitely evolved mechanism in the brain for finding things.它们不是用嗅觉,而是用大脑的海马体,这个进化完美的大脑机制是用来找东西的。But its really good for things that dont move around much, not so good for things that move around.但只是对找固定的东西比较有效,找会移动的东西却不是很管用。So this is why we lose car keys and ing glasses and passports.这就是为什么我们会常常找不到车钥匙、老花镜和护照。So in the home, designate a spot for your keys -- a hook by the door, maybe a decorative bowl.所以,在家里指定一个地点存放你的钥匙--门上的挂钩,或是一个装饰碗。For your passport, a particular drawer. For your ing glasses, a particular table.在一个特定的抽屉存放你的护照。你的老花镜要放在特定的桌子上。If you designate a spot and youre scrupulous about it, your things will always be there when you look for them.如果你指定了特定的地方,并且一丝不苟地做这些事,当你寻找它们时,这些东西总是会在那里。What about travel? Take a cell phone picture of your credit cards, your drivers license, your passport,关于旅行呢?用手机拍下你信用卡的照片,还有你的驾照和护照,mail it to yourself so its in the cloud.把这些照片发到你的电子邮箱,储存在数据云端。If these things are lost or stolen, you can facilitate replacement.如果一旦丢失或被盗了,你可以很方便地用电子件代替它们。Now these are some rather obvious things. Remember, when youre under stress, the brain releases cortisol.这些是一些显而易见的事前剖析方法。记住,当你有压力时,大脑会释放皮质醇。Cortisol is toxic, and it causes cloudy thinking.皮质醇是有毒的,它会导致思维不清晰。So part of the practice of the pre-mortem is to recognize that under stress youre not going to be at your best,所以,做事前剖析的练习,是要认识到在压力下,你不是在最佳状态,and you should put systems in place.你还应该把事情做到井然有序。And theres perhaps no more stressful a situation than when youre confronted with a medical decision to make.不过也许没有什么比你要做医疗决策更紧张的情况了。And at some point, all of us are going to be in that position,有时,我们都会经历这种事情,where we have to make a very important decision about the future of our medical care or that of a loved one, to help them with a decision.我们必须要做出一个很重要的决策,为我们自己或自己爱的人做医疗决策。And so I want to talk about that. And Im going to talk about a very particular medical condition.所以,我想谈谈这个话题。我要说一个非常特殊的医疗情况。But this stands as a proxy for all kinds of medical decision-making,但它代表了各种决策:医疗决策,and indeed for financial decision-making, and social decision-making当然还有财政决策和社交决策any kind of decision you have to make that would benefit from a rational assessment of the facts.任何你必须做的决策,可以让你从理性的事实评估中受益。So suppose you go to your doctor and the doctor says, ;I just got your lab work back, your cholesterols a little high.;假设你去看医生,而医生说,“我刚拿到你验血结果,你的胆固醇有点高。”Now, you all know that high cholesterol is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease, heart attack, stroke.你们都知道,胆固醇高会增加患心血管疾病、心脏病和中风的风险。And so youre thinking having high cholesterol isnt the best thing, and so the doctor says,所以,你会想高胆固醇不是一件好事,那么医生会说:;You know, Id like to give you a drug that will help you lower your cholesterol, a statin.;“我给你开点药,帮助你降低胆固醇,他汀类药就可以。”And youve probably heard of statins, you know that theyre among the most widely prescribed drugs in the world today,你可能已经听说过他汀类药物,现如今是医生开的最多的处方药之一。you probably even know people who take them.你甚至可能认识用这药的人。And so youre thinking, ;Yeah! Give me the statin.;于是你想,“好吧,给我他汀类药。”But theres a question you should ask at this point,但这个时候,你必须问一个问题,a statistic you should ask for that most doctors dont like talking about, and pharmaceutical companies like talking about even less.一个许多医生不愿谈论,制药公司更不喜欢谈论到的一个统计数字。Its for the number needed to treat. Now, what is this, the NNT?这个统计数字就是治疗所需人数。NNT是什么意思呢?Its the number of people that need to take a drug or undergo a surgery or any medical procedure before one person is helped.它是指多少人用了某种药,或接收了手术或其他任何治疗方式,才会有1人收益。And youre thinking, what kind of crazy statistic is that? The number should be one.你心说,这是哪门子统计数字?这数字应该是1啊。My doctor wouldnt prescribe something to me if its not going to help.如果这药对我没有帮助,那医生就不会开给我。But actually, medical practice doesnt work that way.但实际上,医疗实践不是这样运行的。And its not the doctors fault, if its anybodys fault, its the fault of scientists like me.这不是医生的错,如果是某些人的错,那就是像我一样的科学家的错。We havent figured out the underlying mechanisms well enough.我们还没有想出足够好的运作机制。But GlaxoSmithKline estimates that 90 percent of the drugs work in only 30 to 50 percent of the people.但据葛兰素史克制药公司估计,90%的药品只对30%到50%的人有用。So the number needed to treat for the most widely prescribed statin, what do you suppose it is?所以,这种最广泛的处方药的治疗所需人数,你们猜是多少?How many people have to take it before one person is helped? 300.多少人要用它才会出现一个受益的人?300。This is according to research by research practitioners Jerome Groopman and Pamela Hartzband, independently confirmed by Bloomberg.com.这是根据研究工作者Jerome Groopman和Pamela Hartzband做的、由Bloomberg.com权威网站独立实过的研究得出的数据。I ran through the numbers myself.我自己想了一下这个数字。300 people have to take the drug for a year before one heart attack, stroke or other adverse event is prevented.必须有300人用此药一年,才能预防一起心脏病、中风或其他疾病。Now youre probably thinking, ;Well, OK, one in 300 chance of lowering my cholesterol. Why not, doc? Give me the prescription anyway.;现在你可能在想,“好吧,还有300分之1的机会可以降低我的胆固醇。为什么不用呢?医生,给我开这个药。”But you should ask at this point for another statistic, and that is, ;Tell me about the side effects.; Right?但是你应该问医生,有关这药的另一个统计数字,那就是,“告诉我这药的副作用。”对吧?So for this particular drug, the side effects occur in five percent of the patients.那么针对这种药,副作用会发生在5%的患者身上。And they include terrible things -- debilitating muscle and joint pain, gastrointestinal distress这些副作用包括一些可怕的情况--肌无力、关节疼痛和肠胃不适but now youre thinking, ;Five percent, not very likely its going to happen to me, Ill still take the drug.;但你可能觉得:“才5%的比例,不太可能发生在我身上,我还是会用它。”But wait a minute. Remember under stress youre not thinking clearly.但是,请等等。记住在压力下,你可能思维混乱,不能考虑清楚。So think about how youre going to work through this ahead of time,所以,要提前思考一下你该如何做,so you dont have to manufacture the chain of reasoning on the spot.这样你就不用事到临头时再去进行一连串的推理了。300 people take the drug, right? One persons helped, five percent of those 300 have side effects, thats 15 people.300人要用这药,才会有一个人受益,对吧?300人中5%的人会受药物副作用的影响,也就是15人。Youre 15 times more likely to be harmed by the drug than you are to be helped by the drug.你受药物副作用伤害的可能性是你受益于药物的15倍。Now, Im not saying whether you should take the statin or not.我并不是想表明 你该不该用他汀类药物。Im just saying you should have this conversation with your doctor.我只是说,你应该咨询你的医生。Medical ethics requires it, its part of the principle of informed consent.医德要求我们这样做,这是知情同意原则的一部分。You have the right to have access to this kind of information to begin the conversation about whether you want to take the risks or not.你有权力要求知道这类信息,有权和医生谈你是否愿意承担这样的风险。Now you might be thinking Ive pulled this number out of the air for shock value,现在你可能会想,我为了制造震撼的效果凭空捏造了这个数字,but in fact its rather typical, this number needed to treat.但实际上,这个治疗所需人数是相当具有代表性的。For the most widely performed surgery on men over the age of 50, removal of the prostate for cancer, the number needed to treat is 49.对于50岁以上的男性,做的最多的手术是为治疗前列腺癌而切除前列腺,治疗所需人数是49。Thats right, 49 surgeries are done for every one person whos helped.是的,49个患者做了手术才会出现一个受益的人。And the side effects in that case occur in 50 percent of the patients.而这种情况手术的副作用会发生在50%的患者身上。They include impotence, erectile dysfunction, urinary incontinence, rectal tearing, fecal incontinence.这些副作用包括阳痿、勃起功能障碍、尿失禁、直肠撕裂、大便失禁。And if youre lucky, and youre one of the 50 percent who has these, theyll only last for a year or two.如果你“有幸”成为了50%受副作用影响的人中的一个,这些副作用通常只会持续1-2年。So the idea of the pre-mortem is to think ahead of time to the questions that you might be able to ask that will push the conversation forward.所以,事前剖析是要提前想好你想问医生的问题,这样会深入推进你和医生的对话。You dont want to have to manufacture all of this on the spot.毕竟你不想事到临头再来思考所有事情。And you also want to think about things like quality of life.而且你也需要考虑一下生活质量。Because you have a choice oftentimes, do you I want a shorter life thats pain-free,因为通常你是有选择的,你是想要较短的没有痛苦的人生,or a longer life that might have a great deal of pain towards the end?还是想要较长的最终要承受巨大痛苦的人生呢?These are things to talk about and think about now, with your family and your loved ones.这些都是现在需要谈论和思考的问题,和你的家人、爱人一起。You might change your mind in the heat of the moment, but at least youre practiced with this kind of thinking.你可能会在事发时改变你的想法,但至少你练习了这种思维方法。Remember, our brain under stress releases cortisol,请记住,我们的大脑在压力下会释放皮质醇,and one of the things that happens at that moment is a whole bunch on systems shut down.在那一刻发生的一件事是你整个思维系统似乎停工了。Theres an evolutionary reason for this.这里有一个进化方面的原因。Face-to-face with a predator, you dont need your digestive system, or your libido, or your immune system,和一个捕食者面对面时,你不需要你的消化系统、性欲或者免疫系统的帮助。because if youre body is expending metabolism on those things and you dont react quickly,因为如果你的身体忙着在这些事情上进行新陈代谢,你就不能迅速作出反应,you might become the lions lunch, and then none of those things matter.那么你可能会成为狮子的午餐,然后那些事情也就不重要了。Unfortunately, one of the things that goes out the window during those times of stress is rational, logical thinking,不幸的是,在紧张时,其中一件会出错的事情是理性地、有逻辑地思考。as Danny Kahneman and his colleagues have shown.Danny Kahneman和他的同事已经明了这点。So we need to train ourselves to think ahead to these kinds of situations.所以,我们需要培养自己超前思考的习惯,去面对这类事情。I think the important point here is recognizing that all of us are flawed.这里很重要的一点是,要认识到我们所有人都不是完美的。We all are going to fail now and then.我们都会不时地经历失败。The idea is to think ahead to what those failures might be,事前剖析就要超前思考可能的失败会是什么,to put systems in place that will help minimize the damage, or to prevent the bad things from happening in the first place.井然有序地做事有助于把伤害减到最小,或者在第一时间防止糟糕的事情发生。Getting back to that snowy night in Montreal, when I got back from my trip,说回到我在蒙特利尔那个冰天雪地的晚上,当我从欧洲返程回到家时,I had my contractor install a combination lock next to the door, with a key to the front door in it, an easy to remember combination.我的承包商在门旁边安装了密码锁,还有一把钥匙以及一个简单易记的密码。And I have to admit, I still have piles of mail that havent been sorted, and piles of emails that I havent gone through.我不得不承认,我还是有一堆没有分类的信件,以及一堆没有处理的邮件。So Im not completely organized, but I see organization as a gradual process, and Im getting there. Thank you very much.所以,我还没能完全做到井然有序,但我把井然有序做事看成是一个渐进的过程,也正在慢慢实现这个目标。谢谢。201706/514856

Angela Milner, like many paleontologists, believes the mega-carnivores were solitary creatures.Angela Milner和许多古生物学家一样,也认为大型食肉恐龙营独居生活Traditional view of large meat-eaters dinosaurs behaviour was传统观点认为大型食肉恐龙was that they were large, perhaps very ferocious animals, perhaps rabid predators, but probably living singlely.是非常巨大凶残的动物,狂暴的掠食者,但很可能是独自生活Large meat-eaters dinosaurs, theres no real evidence at all that they worked together in big groups.大型食肉恐龙目前还没有据能明它们会群体合作Pack hunting is really hard to evolve.群体狩猎是很难进化的模式And so, unless theres a reason for it to be there, I would, my default would be to say its not there.除非那里能有一些合理的原因。在我看来那是不可能的For the skeptics, there is some convincing evidence to support their view of solitary predators.对于那些持怀疑态度的人来说,很多有力的据都能明独自狩猎的观点These are footprints made by dinosaurs.这些是恐龙的脚印Theyve been preserved in rock for over 150 million years.它们保存在岩石中已有1亿5千万年Mark Norell believes footprints like these show which kind of dinosaurs lived in groups.Mark Norell认为这些脚印能够说明哪些恐龙营群居生活The giant plant-eating dinosaurs left track-ways, fossilized footprints,最大的植食恐龙留下了足迹,脚印化石which really really show I think that they lived in groups or herds, whatever you want to call them.这些脚印显示它们生活在一个群体中,或者说是团队中,怎么说都行And these footprints are not arranged randomly, theyre arranged in groups.这些脚印并非杂乱无章,而是很有序地排列Which really shows that large ones walked in front of the packs, smaller ones in the middle of the packs大的恐龙走在队伍前面,小的恐龙走在中间,and these groups had a structure and theyre all going in the same direction.整队伍按照一定的次序,一起朝同一方向前进And someplaces you can follow them for long stretches, long distances, hundreds and thousands of meters.有时你能跟着它们走很长一段路、很长一段距离,几百米或是几千米And you can see that they all move, sometime they all turn, and really seems to suggest that theyre all moving together.你会发现它们都是一起前进,有时一起转弯,它们都朝着同一方向前进Its not just a coincidence, theyre all in the same direction.这些事实说明它们走在一起并非偶然,So I think this is really really powerful evidence, that suggestive of this sort of behavior in these animals.这都是非常有力的据说明了这些动物的行为The evidence for giant carnivorous dinosaurs isnt as good.但是大型食肉恐龙却没有这方面的据201611/480447

  The king now moved the way he liked best, through the law.而这次国王利用他最钟爱的法律方式解决In October, 1164, Becket was brought to trial at Northampton,1164年10月 贝克特在北安普顿接受审判accused and this was the killer of improper use of funds when hed been chancellor.他受到了致命的指控 称他作为大法官曾不当挪用资金So all those half-joking comments about fancy clothes that Henry had thrown Beckets way now stopped being funny.因此 那些亨利对于贝克特的华 半开玩笑的也都已不再好笑Theyd become a deadly criminal accusation.而变成了致命的指控When Thomas decided to dress up for the trial in his full archbishops rig and carry a huge silver cross,当托马斯身着一整套大主教行头 手持巨大的银色十字架参加审讯时Jesus-like, his greatest rival, the Bishop of London,tried to seize it from him, but Beckets grip was like iron.如同耶稣再临 他的死敌伦敦主教 想夺下那枚十字架 但贝克特宁死不屈A fool he was, a fool hell always be,was the bishops comment on this performance.他真是一个傻瓜 一直都是 主教对他的行为做如是评价The trial broke up with Becket storming out.Perjurer, traitor! yelled Henrys barons.审讯因贝克特的愤然离席而终止 亨利身边的贵族们大喊 ;伪誓者 叛国贼;Whoremongers, bastards!; replied the archbishop.大主教则回敬 ;皮条客 私生子;Convicted on the charges, Becket knew he was in dire peril and fled on the nearest horse.被判有罪后 贝克特知道自己处境危险 于是就近找了匹马He must have thought he was running for his life.绝尘而去 一心逃命Becket and a small group of diehard followers landed on the Flemish coast.贝克特和少数死心塌地的追随者 到达了佛兰芒海岸They were broke, demoralised, prostrate with exhaustion and flooded with the grim realisation of what theyd done.一行人筋疲力竭 低落绝望 内心充斥着那严峻的现实 /201609/466150

  The elephants are nearing the end of their long journey.象群正接近漫长旅途的终点After weeks of marching theyre desperately tired.经过数周的长途跋涉,它们都已是精疲力尽The matriarch can smell water and encourages the herd to make one last effort.母象首领闻到了水的气味,它鼓励象群再做最后的努力The youngsters are exhausted, but their mothers have made this journey before小象疲惫不堪,不过它们的母亲以前也经历过这种旅行and they know that theyre close to water.它们很清楚水就在不远的前方After many hundreds of miles theyve arrived.在完成数百英里的行程之后,它们终于抵达了目的地The lives of these elephants are dominated by the annual rhythm of wet and dry,这些大象的生活决定于一年一度的干湿季节交替a seasonal cycle created by the sun.这是太阳造成的季节循环201702/493537。

  Like me, our next guste earned the PhD in the molecular biology before becoming an comedian跟我一样 我们的下一位来宾是一位从生物学士转型的喜剧明星please welcome the very funny joe wong Everybody Hi Emm, I am mariaged掌声欢迎 黄西 大家好啊 你好啊 恩 我已婚了When I first get drivers license I decide to be an organ donator.当我第一次拿到驾照的时候 我决定做一位器官捐献者And I decide to donate my brain because makes me happy to think some guy捐的是我的脑袋 因为这个想法很逗wakes up some common goals I do not know who I am.比如从昏迷中醒来的人的大脑里想着 我怎么想不起来我是谁了I went to the amusement park a couple of years ago我几年前去了物馆公园and towards the end they are scarely wide.游客的举动比较狂野They took pictures of me screaming like this.他们拍照的时候尖叫的表情都是这样的And then they throw the salad to me.然后他们朝我扔沙拉So I bought a picture then I put it in my drivers license.然后我就留了张照片 然后放进我的驾驶里Just keep it real. I have a friend, his name is weidie.就一直留着做纪念 我有个朋友叫做未带(想死)And recently he sent me page: Hey, John, lets go to Canada to see some bears.最近他给我发信息说 乔 我们去加拿大看熊吧I say ,well, I am a little afraid of bears.我说 可是 我有点害怕熊Then he say to me, hey, John, you got to remember然后他说 记住 乔the bears are more afraid of you than you are afraid of them.比起你怕熊 熊其实更怕你So I say: well, Im Pretty sure the bears are wrong.我就说 好吧 我很确定 熊想错了And on top of that I do not want to go nearly to bears some guy whose name is weidie.而且最重要的是 我不想跟一个叫做未带(想死)的人 去靠近任何一只熊Always I watch tv really late one night and they had a called emergence broadcasting on.某天晚上 我看电视到很晚 他们有个节目叫做 紧急培训I thought like what if it is the real emergency and I was asleep.我就想 如果真有什么紧急状况 而我睡着了怎么办They should let us know when is on. So I can tivol it.应该通知我们什么时候是紧急情况啊 这样我才能做好准备啊I came to this countries that many years and我来到这个国家多年之后I watched a lot of TV shows like Jimmy Kimmel Show.我会看很多电视节目 比如吉米鸡毛秀And the funny think that time I was really and I thought people on the show有意思的是我还不了解这个国家的时候 我以为节目里这些观众are normally average Americans you know.都是普通生活水平的美国人That is I was right. It is kidding.原来我说对了 开玩笑的啦And a lot of bad economic news this year where the guys worry about the economy,I am not今年有很多经济糟糕的新闻 他们怎么会担心经济呢 我就不会Because I grew up poor you know,if I become poor again, Ill just feel young.因为我小时候家里就很穷 我要是又变穷了 我就会感觉自己变年轻了We have a twin half-year-old now and and here is the thing.我家有一对半岁的双胞胎 是这样的I came from a long line of people who had kids.我来自一个拥有悠久历史的繁衍生息的国家Oh,you too,OK but so its amazing,cause my son is really cute now呃 你们也是的哈 好吧 但是 还是很神奇 我儿子现在很可爱了but when he was fistly born,he was ugly.但是 他刚生下来的时候 很丑And I wasnt prepare for it,you know.我那时没做好思想准备I was looking at him in a delivery room and try to remember some of my ugly relatives我在产房看着他 联想我那些丑陋的亲戚and to decide exactly who passed the ugly genes to my son,you know然后想搞清到底是谁遗传了丑陋基因给我儿子了Then the doctor came in who was like congratulations he looks just like you.然后医生走了进来 说道 恭喜恭喜 他长得真像你thank you guys very much thank you,thank you.非常感谢大家 谢谢 谢谢201707/516013

  栏目简介:;Shanghai Live; focuses on big events in the city and major issues around the world, and presents them in a practical and audience-friendly manner to meet the ever-evolving needs of Shanghais English-speaking viewers,both local and expatriate.《直播上海英语电台》集中报道城市大事件以及全球热点话题,并以观众喜闻乐见的方式呈现给大家,从而满足上海本地以及上海海外人士的英语需求。201609/464450The voice is all the more credible because it belongs to someone who by rights,这种说法更为可信 因为按理说 写这句话的人should have found nothing to fault in the Norman Conquest the monk Orderic Vitalis,断不会刻意责难诺曼征 他就是修道士奥尔德里克·维塔利斯whose family came over with William and belonged, therefore, to the conquering class.他的家族跟着威廉来到这里 因此他应属征者一方In the early 12th century,he began to pen his account of the Conquest and its aftermath,十二世纪早期 他开始记录这场征及其影响and, in complete contrast to the others,Orderic never minces his words about what he thought of as a colonisation.但与他人截然不同的是 奥尔德里克从未矫揉做作地解释过 他认为什么是殖民化Foreigners grew wealthy with the spoils of England,while her own sons were either shamefully slain从英格兰掠夺的财富让外来入侵者变得富有 而她的子民却被受尽凌辱惨遭荼毒or driven as exiles to wander hopelessly through foreign kingdoms.或被驱逐 流亡国外 背井离乡His account conveys the traumatic magnitude of what happened in England in the years following 1066.他的记录向我们传达了1066年后 英格兰所经受的巨大创伤Pre-Conquest England was an old country,as Orderic describes it.照奥尔德里克所述 被征前的英格兰是个古老的国家Afterwards, it was a completely new one.被征后的英格兰 却犹如新生Of course, not everything changed,and to look at a list of governing institutions当然 也不是所有东西都变了 看一看治理国家的制度you might suppose that nothing had changed;你可能会发现 什么也没变that one class of governors had kicked out another class of governors.Big deal!只是新的统治者赶跑了原来的统治者而已 有什么了不起But I rather think it was a big deal.但我却认为 这很了不起Imagine the county gentry of England,Priests, Squires, judges想象一下 英格兰各地的贵族们 牧师 乡绅 法官all wiped out overnight, half of them dead,the rest humiliated, broken,replaced by an alien class.一夜之间被推翻 半数惨死 幸存者只得任人羞辱 变得一文不名 地位早被外族替代 /201608/460982栏目简介:《趣味青春英语视频》是外语网络电台的精品节目,通过大讲堂的网络课堂形式,能够帮助英语学习者积累一些英语背景知识,并通过互动的教学形式,帮助有效记忆英语知识。本栏目是学习趣味青春英语的好材料。201606/431434

  Not going to win me any dates, thats for certain.这样肯定是把不到的But you see how much cooler that is.但清凉效果一流As soon as I put this on,you can see the heat again.一旦我穿上这个 温度又会回升Cooler, smellier,but better off for it.凉快 虽然臭了点 但感觉更好了As I get nearer to the coast,the sea breeze actually helps me.越靠近海边 越能享受到海风带来的清新This could be ten degrees cooler than the air inland and its a welcome relief.这里的气温 比内陆要低10度 实在惬意The sound of the surf is just unmistakable.海浪的声音 绝对错不了You can also smell the sea air.Come on, lets go then.你能闻到海水的味道 快 快走吧Finding the coast at least gives you a fighting chance of survival.海岸的出现 又增添了一线生机Youve got food in the sea.你能在海里找到食物Youve got the chance of finding rubbish on the beach可能会在海滩上发现人造垃圾and also the likelihood of coming across people either on the beach or ships out at sea.也可能 在海滩上遇到人 或者出海的船只Its a long way down there.Look, you see over there,the edge of the cliff, its cracked.离太远了 不好下去看那边 崖壁是裂开的Get into that and shimmy my way down it.Thats right. Lets go.顺着那摸索下去 好 出发Because the weathered limestone is loose and crumbly,the safest way down is to do a chimney climb.因为风化的岩石松动易碎 所以最安全的 就是从狭窄的岩缝中下去But pitting opposing pressure on both walls with my legs and back,I can descend safely and quickly.利用我双腿和后背 对两边崖壁的反作用力 就能迅速地安全着地Whats wedged in here now?From here, I can see the crack runs straight under the overhang.什么东西卡住了 从这儿看下去 裂缝和崖壁几乎平行201611/479151In many ways the late Jurassic is really the golden age of dinosaurs.从许多方面来讲,晚侏罗世都可以算是恐龙的黄金时期We have a tremendous diversity of different kinds of dinosaurs, meat-eaters and plant-eaters, forms with armour.各种各样的恐龙种类非常之多,食肉恐龙、植食恐龙、有盔甲的恐龙All around the world we see these dinosaurs.世界各地都能见到这些恐龙But it wasnt just the variety of dinosaurs that made this their golden age.可是它成为恐龙的黄金时代并不只是因为种类繁多The late Jurassic was also the era of the giants.晚侏罗世还是巨龙的时代We have dinosaurs of tremendous size, we have plant-eaters 40ft tall,我们发现了体型极其庞大的恐龙,有40英尺高的植食恐龙we have animals that must have weighed 50 or 60 tons,有重达50~60吨的恐龙so these are immense animals and theyre everywhere.所以那时有许多巨型恐龙,它们遍布世界各地But the dinosaurs didnt start off like this.不过恐龙刚登场时可不是这样50 million years earlier in the early Jurassic they were very different.在5亿年前的早侏罗世,它们非常不同We have many fewer different kinds of dinosaurs, theyre relatively primitive looking dinosaurs恐龙的种类数非常少,它们是长相比较原始的恐龙and compared to what we see in the late Jurassic, theyre much less spectacular animals.与晚侏罗世的那些恐龙相比,这些动物就相形见绌了We dont see the sizes and shapes and diversities that we see at that time.我们没有见到与这个时期一样的体型、模样和多样性Theyre relatively dull looking animals compared to what we see later.与我们后来见到的那些相比,这些动物显得很不起眼And there was nothing to suggest that these early dinosaurs would grow and diversify to so completely dominate the planet for so long.没有什么能解释这些早期恐龙如何壮大并多样化,成为长久以来地球上的霸主。201704/502924

  

  

  Across 50 counties in two states,横跨两个州的五十个郡in the worst drought ever, miraculous growth.在最严重的旱情面前 玉米奇迹般的生长了But Garst isnt finished.但加斯特并未就此打住He sells another revolutionary product,他开始销售另一种革命性的产品taken from natures chemistry set: Nitrogen fertilizer.一种取自自然界的化合物: 氮肥Spewed from volcanoes during the birth of our planet,地球诞生之初 火山喷发Nitrogen makes up 78% of earths atmosphere.地球大气含量的百分之七十八是氮气Its invisible, odorless, inert.它无色无味 结构稳定But when scientists learn to isolate nitrogen and turn the gas into nitrate,但当科学家试着把氮元素分离 将氮气转化为硝酸盐a nutrient essential for the growth of plants,一种促进植物生长的必需营养物就诞生了they uncover the key to feeding the worlds growing population.自此解决了全球人类增长带来的粮食不足的问题Garst markets the new product with a salesmans flair,加斯特用其敏锐的销售力来推广这个新产品sown into a field, in a distinct pattern:N for Nitrogen,将肥料以特定图案洒向农田:N代表氮written into the grass of the Midwest,未来形势不言而喻a clear message for the future.清晰有力地写入中西部的草地间Today, almost every industrial farm uses nitrogen fertilizer.今天 几乎每个农厂都会使用氮肥Garst becomes an international farming consultant加斯特成为国际农业顾问and one of the largest seed suppliers in the world.和世界上最大种子供应商之一201605/444858

  The geladas graze alongside walia ibex, which are also unique to these highlands.站在狮尾狒身旁的是西敏羱羊,它们也是这片高原的特有物种These rare creatures are usually very shy,这种罕见的动物通常很胆小but they drop their guard when the geladas are around.但只要狮尾狒一来到身边,它们便放松警惕You might expect that grazers would avoid each others patch,你或许会认为食草动物总是尽量互相避让but this is a special alliance from which both partners benefit.但是这种特殊联盟能使双方都得到好处Its not so risky to put your head down if others are on the lookout.它们可以毫无顾虑地埋头吃草,因为旁边有站岗的“哨兵”Ethiopian wolves. They wont attempt an attack in broad daylight.西门豺。它们一般不会在大白天发动进攻But at dusk, the plateau becomes a more dangerous place.可是一到傍晚,高原便成了一个危机四伏的地方With the grazing largely over, theres a last chance to socialise before returning to the sleeping cliffs.吃草活动基本结束,狮尾狒们抓住最后一点机会进行社交,然后返回睡觉的悬崖An early warning system puts everyone on the alert.“即时预警系统”使大家都警觉起来。201703/496389

  Faced with an aggressive predator,my nerves are on edge.与这种凶残的食肉动物打交道 我必须时刻绷紧神经Even the smallest ripple makes me wonder whats lying below.水面上的每一个波纹都会让我担心Need to find a way across this river.我得想个办法穿过这条河Somehow, way off course now.This isnt that great.但是 情况有点失控 这可不妙You know, theres only 20, 30 yards water.Look, just so benign.这条河大约只有20至30码宽 河水看起来很平静Still, calm you think,There cant be any dangers in that.你仍然可能自我安慰说 这条河还是很安全的But there are saltwater crocodiles in here,and the consequences of over confidence basically death, you know.但是这条河里还是藏有咸水鳄 大家都知道 过度自信往往都是 自取灭亡的前奏Look. See, all these trees almost reaching across the river here.还有这些树 基本上已经横跨了整条河流Just not quite.Keep going and see if we can find a better one.但是还不够保险 我们再找找看有更合适的树It does go across the river all the way.Gives us the camera.Lets just do this.借助这棵 绝对能够横跨这条河了 把摄像机给我 准备跨河吧See, its pretty solid at this stage.树的这个位置还很稳固Its just its gonna get more and more bendy the higher I get.但是我越往上爬 树就越容易摇晃Theres a local story where three guys were swimming when they spotted a large crocodile in the water.当地有这样一个故事 有三个人在游泳的时候 与一条大鳄鱼相遇了Two of them made it to a tree, the other was taken.两个人成功逃到了树上 另一个则被咬住了It then went quiet for five minutes until the croc returned with their friends torso still in its jaws.水面平静了五分钟后 那条鳄鱼嘴里叼着他们朋友的尸骨 游了回来The croc then waited in ambush for the other two under the tree for two days until, finally, they were rescued by helicopter.然后那条鳄鱼在树下蹲守着 另外两个人 长达两天两夜 一直守到他们被直升机救走Look. There are bubbles there.Im worrying about the crocs, but Ive got to stay focused.看 那里有水泡冒出来了 鳄鱼的出没会让我分心 但是我必须集中精神Its no time to lose concentration.Okay.现在可不是走神的时候 好啦201701/487831

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