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2019年09月19日 05:56:53来源:飞度分享

Few years in recent decades dawned with as much of a sense of pessimism as 2014. One consistent theme in the predictions for the year was that 2014 looked eerily similar to 1914. Most pundits predicted doom and gloom, especially in east Asia. Yet, while there were many horrific events from thedowning of flight MH17 over Ukraine, to the abduction of hundreds of schoolgirls in Nigeria and the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant we have avoided outright world war. Now that the year is closed, with no repetition of 1914, it may be wise to investigate why the pundits were wrong, particularly on their ideas around the potential for conflict in Asia.近几十年来,很少有年份像2014年那样一开始就充满那么多的悲观情绪。对2014年的预测贯穿了一个主题,即这一年看起来914年相似得让人害怕。大多数学者的预测都是悲观和令人沮丧的,尤其是对于东亚。然而,虽然发生了许多可怕的事件——从马航MH17航班在乌克兰坠落,到尼日利亚数百女学生被绑架,以及“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国Isis)的崛起——但我们避免了全面的世界大战。现在,2014年已结束,没有重914年的悲剧。探究为什么这些学者预测错了(特别是他们认为亚洲存在冲突可能性的想法)或许是明智的。These were no lightweight pundits. The eminent historian Margaret MacMillan, in an essay for Brookings in December 2013, said, “We are witnessing, as much as the world of 1914, shifts in the international power structure, with emerging powers challenging the established ones.She added, “the same is happening between the US and China now, and also between China and Japan and also said that “there is potential for conflict between China and two of its other neighbours Vietnam and Malaysia as well.”这些专家都不是轻量级的。杰出的历史学家玛格丽特#8226;麦克米伦(Margaret MacMillan)0132月的一篇为布鲁金斯学会(Brookings)撰写的文章中说:“像1914年的世界一样,我们正在经历国际权力结构的转换,新兴大国正在挑战老牌大国。”她补充说,“如今,同样的一幕正发生在美国与中国,以及中国与日本之间”,同时她还表示,“中国与它另外两个邻国——越南和马来西亚——也有爆发冲突的可能性。”Graham Allison, the famous Harvard professor, also warned that east Asia was headed towards the “Thucydides Trap adding: “When a rapidly rising power rivals an established ruling power, trouble ensues.In early 2013, the then prime minister of Luxembourg, Jean-Claude Juncker, warned that 2013 was looking dangerously like 1913. The Economist also warned at the end of 2013, “A century on, there are uncomfortable parallels with the era that led to the outbreak of the first world war.”哈佛大学著名教授格雷厄#8226;阿利Graham Allison)也警告说,东亚已走向“修昔底德陷阱Thucydides’s trap),他并补充道:“当一个迅速崛起的大国与一个老牌霸权国竞争时,麻烦接踵而来。013年初,时任卢森堡首相的让-克洛#8226;容克(Jean-Claude Juncker)警告称,2013年看起来913年一样危险013年底,《经济学人》杂The Economist)也警告说,“一个世纪已过去,当今世界却与那个导致第一次世界大战爆发的时代有不少相似之处,令人不安。”I experienced this pessimism personally in Davos in January 2014. Several leading western intellectuals asked me whether war would break out between China and Japan. I was so confident that there would be no war in east Asia that I offered to take bets with ten-to-one odds against myself with eminent western journalists. Two took up my bets. And I will be collecting on these bets when I return to Davos in January.2014月,我在达沃斯亲身感受到了这种悲观情绪。几位著名西方学者问我中国和日本之间是否会爆发战争。我非常有信心东亚不会发生战争,以至于我提出0的赔率与西方知名记者们打赌。两位记者接受了我的赌约。今月回到达沃斯时,我将收取他们的赌注。Why was I so confident that there would be no war in east Asia, either in the East China Sea or the South China Sea? The simple answer is that I know the Asian dynamic. While many Asian neighbours will make angry nationalist statements (and they have to do so to manage popular nationalist sentiments), they are also careful and pragmatic in their deeds.为什么我如此有信心东亚不会爆发战争,无论在东中国海还是南中国海?很简单,因为我了解推动亚洲变化的力量。虽然许多亚洲邻国会发出愤怒的民族主义声明(他们必须这样做来应对普遍的民族主义情绪),但他们的行动是谨慎和务实的。For over two decades I have been writing about the rise of Asia and the dynamic driving it. There is an extraordinary consensus among east Asian leaders that Asia needs to use this window of opportunity to focus on economic development and growth. War is the biggest obstacle to development. If Asians were truly stupid, they would engage in such wars and derail their enormous development promise. Most Asian leaders, barring North Korea, understand well the dangers of war. Hence, while there will be tensions and rivalries in the region, there will be no wars in the region, in 2014 or in 2015. As 2015 unfolds, I would like to encourage all western pundits to understand the underlying Asian dynamic on its own terms, and not on the basis of western preconceptions.过去二十多年间,我一直在写关于亚洲崛起及其推动力量的文章。东亚各国领导人之间有一个了不起的共识:亚洲需要利用当前的机会之窗,把重点放在经济发展和增长上。战争是发展的最大阻碍。如果亚洲人真的愚蠢,他们或会卷入这样的战争,破坏自己巨大的发展前景。大多数亚洲国家(除了朝鲜)的领导人,都很明白战争的危险。因此,虽然这一地区会出现局势紧张和对抗,但无论014年还015年都不会爆发战争。随着2015年缓缓展开,我想鼓励所有西方学者根据亚洲本身的情况理解亚洲的根本发展动力,而非将理解建立在西方先入之见的基础上。来 /201501/352905。

  • Families of Chinese ;comfort women; demanded a similar apology from Japan on Monday after Japan and South Korea reached a landmark deal to resolve the dispute on wartime forced sex slavery.周一,日韩两国就战时性奴问题达成了里程牌式的协议后,中国“慰安妇”的家人也要求日本给予道歉;I am very angry and upset, so are many other relatives. If Japan apologizes to the victims in South Korea, why dont they apologize to Chinese victims?; asked Zhou Guiying, son of Guo Xicui, a late ;comfort woman; from Shanxi Province.山西省的周桂英说,“我和我其它的亲人都感到愤怒和难过。如果日本向韩国的受害者道歉,那他们为什么不向中国的受害者道歉?”他已故的妈妈郭西翠曾被强征做慰安妇;They shouldnt hold different attitudes toward victims in different countries,; Zhou, 60, told the Global Times on Monday, adding that Chinese victims deserve an apology which reflects Japans remorse and sincerity.星期一,已0岁的周桂英告诉环球时报的记者,“日本人不能对不同国家的受害者持不同的态度。”还说中国的受害者也需要日本的道歉,以表达他们的忏悔之意和诚挚之态。Japan and South Korea reached a ;historic; agreement on Monday on the ;comfort women; issue, including an apology from Japan and .3 million for a foundation to ;restore the honor and dignity; of the victims, the Kyodo News reported.据共同社报道,周一,日韩两国就慰安妇问题达成了里程牌式的协议,包括日方提供道歉,以及日本提30万美元的基金以恢复受害者的名誉和尊严;We have noted the relevant report. The Chinese side always maintains that the Japanese side should face up to and reflect upon its history of aggression and properly deal with the relevant issue with a sense of responsibility,; Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu Kang said on Monday.星期一,中国外交部发言人陆康表示,“我们已经注意到了有关的报道。中方一贯主张,日方应正视和反省侵略历史,拿出负责任的态度妥善处理有关问题。”Su Zhiliang, director of the China ;Comfort Women; Issue Research Center at Shanghai Normal University, estimates that around 400,000 women, including 200,000 from China, were forced into sex enslavement, the Peoples Daily reported in 2014.据人民日014年的一篇报道,上海师范大学中国“慰安妇”问题研究中心主任苏智良估计,约0万女性被迫成为性奴,其中一半来自中囀?Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ;expressed his heartfelt apology and remorse as prime minister of Japan to all those who have borne physical and psychological scars that will be difficult to heal and who experienced much pain and suffering as comfort women,; Japans Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida said at a press conference, the Asahi Shimbun reported Monday.朝日新闻星期一报道,日本外相岸田文雄在新闻发布会上称,日本首相安倍晋三“对所有遭遇了不可计量的痛苦经历、蒙受了无法愈合的身体与心理创伤的‘慰安妇表示最诚挚的道歉与忏悔。;If Abes apology goes to all the comfort women as he pledged, why are victims in China not included?; asked Kang Jian, a Beijing-based lawyer who has represented Chinese victims in a number of cases concerning the ;comfort women; and wartime slavery.北京的一位名叫康建的律师说,“如果安倍如其承诺的那样,向所有的受害慰安妇道歉,那为什么中国的受害者不包括在内?康律师曾在一系列有关“慰安妇”和战时奴隶的案件中为中国的受害者代言。Japans response shouldnt differ according to the nationality of ;comfort women,; Kang told the Global Times on Monday, adding that if Japan decides to apologize and compensate the victims in South Korea, theres no reason why they should not do the same for Chinese victims.康律师周一告诉环球时报的记者,日本不应根据“慰安妇”的不同国籍而作出差异性回应。并补充道,如果日本决定向韩国道歉并赔偿受害者,他们没有理由不对中国的受害者也这样做。来 /201601/419585。
  • Six world powers and Iran struck one of the most significant post-cold war diplomatic deals yesterday, reversing almost a decade of economic isolation for the Islamic republic in return for limits on its nuclear programme.六个世界大国昨日与伊朗达成的协议堪称冷战后最重大的外交协议之一,逆转了这个伊斯兰共和国近10年的经济孤立,以换取对伊朗核计划的限制。If it survives objections of opponents in Washington and Tehran, the deal to end a 12-year nuclear-stand-off is expected to unfreeze more than 0bn in Iranian assets and prompt a flood of investment while stunting the country’s ability to make a nuclear bomb for at least a decade.如果这份协议在华盛顿和德黑兰分别经受住反对者的反对,它将结束长2年的核对峙,解冻000亿美元的伊朗资产,释放一股投资洪流,同时在至0年里阻碍该国发展制造核弹的能力。Barack Obama defended what is the boldest gamble of his presidency as a “comprehensive long-term dealwith Iran that will head-off “a nuclear arms race in the Middle East Facing congressional scrutiny and criticism from Republican presidential contenders,Mr Obama vowed to veto any legislation that stopped implementation of the accord. “I believe it would be irresponsible to walk away from this deal,he said.巴拉克攠巴马(Barack Obama)为他总统任期内的最大胆进行辩护,称与伊朗达成的这项“全面长期的协议”,将阻止“中东地区的核军备竞赛”。面对国会的吹毛求疵和共和党总统候选人竞争者的批评,奥巴马誓言要否决任何阻止执行该协议的立法。“我相信拒绝接受这份协议将是不负责任的,”他说。Hassan Rouhani, Iran’s president, pictured below, said the deal “opens a new chapterin its international relations, putting an end to “wrong, unfair and inhumanesanctions. “It is the end of injustice to the Iranian nation and beginning of new co-operation in the world,he said.伊朗总统哈桑脠哈Hassan Rouhani)表示,这一协议为该国的国际关系“开启了新篇章”,为“错误、不公平和不人道的”制裁画上了句号。“这是伊朗民族所遭遇的不公正的结束,世界新合作的开始,”他说。Capping two years of negotiations, the deal will place hard limits on Tehran’s nuclear activities and, in a matter of months, begin to reconnect the 0bn Iranian economy with the world.这份协议结束了两年的谈判,它将对德黑兰的核活动施加刚性限制,同时将在数月后开始将4000亿美元的伊朗经济与世界重新接轨。Under the deal, by early 2016 the key economic sanctions against Iran would be lifted, breathing life into its financial system and energy market. Sanctions relief will be triggered by Iran’s verified compliance with measures to wind back its nuclear plans and introduce close international monitoring. Oil prices fell more than 2 per cent on the news.根据协议,对伊朗的重要经济制裁到2016年年初将被解除,向该国金融体系和能源市场注入生命力。解除制裁的先决条件是伊朗被验履行了协议,采取措施逆转其核计划,并引入密切的国际监测。达成协议的消息传出后,油价下跌%。If the agreement holds it will be the first case in which a country subject to chapter seven sanctions by the UN Security Council has exited them through diplomacy rather than war.如果这份协议得到执行,那将是根据《联合国宪章》第七章受到联合国安理会(UN Security Council)制裁的国家首次通过外交(而非战争)结束制裁。But its terms were decried by some as an egregious failure of judgment. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli prime minister, called the agreement a “historic mistake for the world Jeb Bush, a leading Republican presidential candidate, said the deal was “appeasement但是该协议的条款被一些人谴责为令人震惊的误判。以色列总理本雅明蔠呑尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)称该协议是“世界的历史性错误”。共和党主要总统候选人竞争者杰布布什(Jeb Bush)表示,这一协议是“绥靖政策”。In Iran, both reformists and conservatives welcomed the deal, regarding it as a victory that will turn Iran into a regional power. Hardliners remained largely quiet because of the difficulty in opposing an agreement endorsed by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader and ultimate decision maker.在伊朗,改革派和保守派都对这份协议表示欢迎,视其为一个胜利,将让伊朗成为地区大国。强硬派基本保持沉默,因为他们明白自己难以反对伊朗最高领袖和最终决策者阿亚图拉阿里哈梅内Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)已经拍板的协议。来 /201507/386029。
  • A day after revealing an intelligence failure that cost the lives of two al-Qaida hostages, President Barack Obama on Friday praised the nations spyingoperations as the most capable in the world while promising a review aimed atpreventing future mistakes.在曝出因情报失误,而造成两名基地组织人质付出生命代价后的一美国总统巴拉#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)于周五称赞国家的间谍活动是世界上最有能力的,并且做出了旨在防止未来错误的综评允诺;We all bleed when we lose an American life, Obama said in a speech at the Office of the Director of Nati onal Intelligence to mark its 10th anniversary.;We all grieve when any innocent life is taken. We dont t ake this work lightly. And I know that each and every one of you understand the magnitude of what we do a the stakes involved and these arent abstractions and were not cavalier about what we do.;“当我们失去了一个美国人的时候,我们都在流血。”奧巴马在国家情报总监署十周年纪念的演讲中说道;当任何无辜的生命被带走的时候,我们都很悲伤。我们的工作不是那么轻松的。我知道你们每一个人都了解我们所做的事情的重要性和其所涉及的风险,这些都不是抽象的,所以我们不能漫不经心地去做这些事。”Obama said he knows the U.S. intelligence community has faced criticism but it cantake great pride that its work has made America work secure. ;You do an outstanding job,; he said.奥巴马说他知道美国情报部门受到了批评,但它可以很自因为它使得在美国工作很安全;你们做的是一个杰出的工作,;他说;The world doesnt always see your successes, the threats that you prevent or the terrorist attacks you thwart, or the lives that you save,; Obama told acouple hundred intelligence officials gathered in an auditorium at the sprawling gray office building outside Washington. He said their intelligence helped take out Osama bin Laden and other al-Qaida leaders, showed that Syriahad chemical weapons, revealed Russian aggression in Ukraine and supported nuclear negotiations with Iran.;世界看到的并不总是你的成功,你所防止的威胁,你曾阻挠过的恐怖袭或者你曾救下的生命,;在华盛顿郊外庞大的灰色办公楼里,奥巴马对聚集在礼堂里的好几百名情报官员这样说道。他说他们所提供的情报,帮助除掉了奥萨马#8226;#8226;拉登和其他基地组织领导人,展示出了叙利亚拥有化学武揭露了俄罗斯对乌克兰的侵略,还持了与伊朗的核谈判;Its been 10 long and challenging years, but when we look back on those 10 years,the American people have been a whole lot safer,; Obama said.;0年漫长而又富有挑战但当我们回顾0年时,美国人的生活环境已经变得更安全了,;奥巴马说。Obamas praise came one day after the announcement that a counter terrorism operation inJanuary against an al-Qaida compound accidentally killed two aid workers beingheld hostage American Warren Weinstein and Italian Giovanni Lo Porto. Obamasaid the U.S. was unaware the hostages were in the targeted position, despite hundreds of hours of surveillance of the compound.在奥巴马发表赞扬的前一天,恰恰就有一个关月份的一个反恐行动的声明,声明中说:反恐部队在与基地组织作战时,混乱中意外杀死了被基地组织当成人质的两名援助工作者——美国人沃伦#8226;温斯坦和意大利人乔凡#8226;#8226;波尔图。奥巴马美国不知道目标位置中有人质存尽管之前对该组织基地进行了数百小时的监视。The White House said the attack also killed two American al-Qaida leaders, AhmedFarouq and Adam Gadah ithout the U.S. knowing in advance they were there.Targeting an American with a drone strike would have t riggered a more intensereview in consideration of constitutional due process protections.白宫说该袭击还炸死了两名美国基地组织领导人,艾哈迈德·法鲁克和亚当·加达恩,全是由于美国未能提前知道他们在那里。用无人机瞄准一个美国人并发起袭击,会引发人们对保护宪法正当程序的更激烈的;Were going to review what happened,; Obama said Friday. ;Were going toidentify the lessons that can b( learned and any improvements and changes that can be made. And I know those of you who are here shar determination to continue doing everything we can to prevent the loss of innocent lives.“我们要回顾所曾发生过的事。”奧巴马周五时说。“我们要标识出可以从中吸取的教训,任何可以做出的改进和变化。我知道你们中那些有着跟我们一样的决心的人,将会继续尽一切努力组织无辜生命的丧失;This self-reflection, this willingness to examine ourselves, to make corrections, to do better, thats part of what makes us Americans. Its part of what sets us apart from other nations,; Obama said.;这样的自我反这中愿意自我审视,自我改正,自我改善的精神,正是我们美国人的一部分。也正是这种精神才使我们跟其他国家不一;奥巴马说;The ed States is the most professional, most capable, most cutting-edgeintelligence community in the world,; he said, adding that they are sharing more intelligence than ever with partners around the world while tapping new technologies and satellites.他说, ;美国有着世界上最专业、最能干、最先进的情报机构;并补充说在开发新技术和卫星的同时,他们与世界各地的合作伙伴间所分享的情报比以往更多了。The White House said Obamas speech was planned long before the drone revelation tomark the offices anniversary. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence was created by President George W. Bush after the 9/11 terrorist attacks to coordinate the vast amounts of intelligence produced by 17 different government organizations, including the CIA, Pentagon, Cabinet departments andlaw enforcement agencies.白宫说为了该政府机关的周年纪念,奥巴马在无人机意外发生之前很久,就开始准备演讲了。国家情报总监署是由总统乔治#8226;布什(George w . Bush)/11恐怖袭击后所设立是为了协7个不同的政府机构中大量的情报人员,这些机构包括美国中央情报局,五角大楼,内阁部门和执法机构。来 /201504/372426。
  • New U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter traveled to southern Afghanistan Sunday to review plans to withdraw U.S. troops from the country within two years.美国新任国防部长阿什顿·卡特星期天前往阿富汗南部地区,考量美军两年内从阿富汗撤出的计划。On his second day in Afghanistan, Carter few to Kandahar from the capital, Kabul, where he had held a series of talks Saturday with Afghan leaders and American military commanders.卡特抵达阿富汗的第二天,从首都喀布尔飞往坎大哈省。此前他在喀布尔与阿富汗领导人和美军指挥官进行了一系列会谈。Carter is in Kandahar to receive briefings from U.S. and Afghan commanders on progress in training Afghan security forces.卡特在坎大哈听取美军以及阿富汗军队的指挥官报告有关培训阿富汗保安部队的进展。Carter said the ed States is ;rethinking details; of its counter-terrorism mission in Afghanistan, including whether to slow down the withdrawal of U.S. troops, whose mission is changing from combat to training as Afghan troops take on responsibility for the fight against the Taliban.他表示,美国正在“重新考量”在阿富汗反恐使命的具体安排,包括是否放慢美国撤军的步伐。美军在阿富汗的任务正从作战转为培训,阿富汗军队接手承担起打击塔利班的责任。He told reporters the issue is on the agenda when Afghan President Ashraf Ghani visits Washington next month.卡特对记者说,这个问题是下个月阿富汗总统加尼访问华盛顿时的一个议题。Carter met with President Ghani, discussing both the drawdown and Afghan efforts to fight the Taliban. President Ghani told reporters that prospects for peace with the Taliban are better now than they have been in more than three decades, although he gave few details. He said ;the direction is positive; but added he would not make ;premature announcements.;卡特与阿富汗总统加尼举行了会谈,讨论了撤军以及阿富汗打击塔利班的行动。加尼总统对记者说,目前与塔利班达成和平协议的前景比过0多年任何时候都好,但是他没有透露任何细节。他说,有良好的趋势,但是发布消息的时机还不成熟。Carter is also scheduled to meet with U.S. troops during his visit.卡塔计划在阿富汗访问期间视察驻阿美军。About 10,000 U.S. troops are in Afghanistan.目前美国在阿富汗有大约一万驻军。来 /201502/360725。
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