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来源:健康专家    发布时间:2019年10月18日 16:37:38    编辑:admin         

It reported an operating profit of 11m in the first half of this year. But on an underlying basis its operating profit was 524m, giving it an adjusted margin of 9.4 per cent of sales, compared with minus 0.5 per cent for mobiles. NSN今年上半年的营运利润为1100万欧元。但其基本营业利润高达5.24亿欧元,这使其经调整后的销售利润率达到9.4%,远高于手机部门-0.5%的水平。 Crudely splitting out the mobile phone division would have left Nokia with about half of the 11.5bn in sales it reported in the first six months of this year. But it would still have nursed an operating loss because of the poor performance of its mapping division, which it will keep along with NSN and its portfolio of patents. 诺基亚今年前六个月的销售业绩为115亿欧元,若粗略剔除手机部门,将使销售额下降大约二分之一。但该公司仍将产生营业亏损,受地图部门的糟糕业绩拖累——诺基亚将保留该部门、NSN以及自身的专利组合。 Investors appear to be happy with Nokia’s new focus: its shares are up 41 per cent this week. “Nokia’s dismal earnings and cash development have been solely driven by its ailing devices business. 投资者似乎很满意诺基亚的新主营方向:该公司股价本周上涨了41%。北欧联合(Nordea)分析师萨米#8226;萨尔卡梅斯(Sami Sarkamies)在一份报告中写道:“诺基亚陷入困境的手机业务是导致该公司盈利惨淡以及现金流吃紧的唯一原因。” “Now that those problems are out of the way, we expect investors to gradually start viewing Nokia as the number three global mobile network supplier it is, along with a strong patent portfolio – in essence a smaller version of Ericsson,” Sami Sarkamies, analyst at Nordea, wrote in a report. “现在这些障碍都已被清除,我们预计投资者将逐渐正视诺基亚的市场地位,该公司是全球第三大移动网络设备供应商,并且拥有一个强大的专利组合——换句话说,诺基亚相当于规模略小的爱立信。” He says that, assuming a 1.50 per share extraordinary dividend from Nokia, Ericsson still trades at a 40 per cent premium based on next year’s estimated earnings. 萨尔卡梅斯指出,假设诺基亚派发每股1.5欧元的特别股息,按照明年的预期盈利计算,爱立信相对于诺基亚的股价溢价仍高达40%。 “We find this completely unwarranted considering that Nokia is now a potential acquisition target for Samsung, and faced with notable upside related to a potential US market entry” if the struggling Alcatel-Lucent withdraws, he adds. 萨尔卡梅斯补充称:“我们认为这种溢价是毫无道理的,因为诺基亚现已成为三星(Samsung)的潜在收购目标,而进军美国市场的可能性还使其具有很大的上行潜力——如果目前处境艰难的阿尔卡特朗讯(Alcatel-Lucent)退出的话。” Not everyone is so sanguine. A former senior Nokia executive says: “It’s obviously a tricky and risky decision to focus on NSN.” 不过不是所有人都如此乐观。诺基亚的一位前高管表示:“将NSN作为业务重点无疑是一个棘手而有风险的决定。” He frets that Nokia is in a way leaping out of the frying pan and into the fire with the likes of Ericsson, Huawei and ZTE proving to be formidable rivals. 他担心,诺基亚从某种意义上来说是刚跳出油锅、又落入火坑,将要面对爱立信、华为(Huawei)、中兴(ZTE)等已被明相当可怕的对手。 “The visibility is so much less than it used to be and the competitive landscape is so different. Can you be a winner among Ericsson and two or three Chinese companies?” he says. 他指出:“目前市场的能见度比过去大大降低,竞争版图已大不相同。你能在与爱立信以及两至三家中国企业的竞争中胜出吗?” Mr Siilasmaa refuses to be drawn, merely noting that NSN has come a long way in the past three years: from Nokia’s problem child to the cornerstone of the company. 斯拉斯玛拒绝被拉入争论,而只是指出NSN在过去三年中取得了很大进展:从诺基亚的问题儿童,变成了公司的业务基石。 That may be comforting to some because of its rebound in profitability, but NSN, run out of the glare of great publicity for much of the past six years, will now be firmly in the spotlights. NSN的盈利能力反弹可能会让某些人感到安慰。但是,过去六年来大部分时间里不受关注的NSN,现在将牢牢处于聚光灯下。 One person involved in the deal says: “Now NSN is going to become the core business, there is going to be a tremendous amount of focus on it.” 一名参与诺基亚出售手机业务交易的人士表示:“现在NSN将成为诺基亚的核心业务,并将受到密切关注。” /201309/255853。

Baidu isn#39;t quite China#39;s Google. 百度(Baidu)还不能说是中国的谷歌(Google)。 China#39;s Internet giant has managed to replicate Google#39;s dominance of Internet search, with 85% of the market by traffic in the first quarter, according to web analysis firm iResearch. But with rivals vying for control of the gateway to search in web browsers and smartphones, that dominance can#39;t be taken for granted. 这家中国互联网巨头复制了谷歌在互联网搜索市场的主导地位。据网络分析公司艾瑞咨询(iResearch)的数据,按流量计算,一季度百度在搜索市场占有85%的份额。不过,在竞争对手们纷纷争夺网络浏览器和智能手机搜索通路的控制权的情况下,百度的主导地位并非高枕无忧。 The clear and present danger comes from online upstart Qihoo 360 Technology QIHU +4.33% . Earlier this month, Qihoo launched its own search function and made it the default option on its popular browser. The most obvious loser is Google, which until now was Qihoo#39;s default search provider. But Baidu also stands to lose market share. 一个显而易见也是迫在眉睫的危险来自网络后起之秀奇虎360科技有限公司(Qihoo 360 Technology)。上个月,奇虎360推出了自己的搜索务,并将之设置为其颇受欢迎的浏览器上的默认搜索选项。在奇虎360的这番举动中,最明显的输家是谷歌,在此之前,谷歌一直是奇虎360的默认搜索引擎。不过,百度也可能失去部分市场份额。 With more than a decade of experience in search, Baidu has quality on its side. In 2011, it outspent Qihoo on research and development by more than three to one. It#39;s difficult to believe that the new kid on the block will be able to compete on performance. 百度在互联网搜索领域拥有10余年的经验,质量是它的优势。2011年,百度的研发出比奇虎360高出两倍有余。很难相信搜索领域的“毛头小子”能够在搜索性能上与百度相抗衡。 But with more than 20% of China#39;s browser market, Qihoo has a powerful distribution network. That doesn#39;t guarantee success. Tencent Holdings#39; TCEHY +0.53% hundreds of millions of instant messenger users haven#39;t translated into market share for its search function. But assuming at least some users are too lazy to change the default, Qihoo should gain some search-market traction. 不过,凭借其在中国浏览器市场逾20%的份额,奇虎360拥有强大的分销网络。但这并不能保奇虎360能在搜索市场取得成功。腾讯控股有限公司(Tencent Holdings)拥有数亿即时通讯用户,但这并没有使其搜索务所占市场份额大幅扩张。不过,假如一些用户懒得改变默认设置,奇虎360应该能够在搜索市场夺取一定的份额。 Investors aren#39;t taking any chances. Baidu#39;s stock price has fallen 16% from its mid-August high. Qihoo#39;s stock is up nearly the same amount over the same period. That seems like an overreaction to the immediate threat. But even if Baidu manages to see off Qihoo, the sneak attack is a reminder that dominance can#39;t be taken for granted. 但投资者则相当谨慎。百度股价较8月中旬的高点跌了16%,同期奇虎360股价则上涨了几乎同样的幅度。这看似是对即刻的威胁反应过度了。不过,就算百度能够击败奇虎360,奇虎360的偷袭也提醒人们主导地位并不是天经地义的。 Google has spent big on developing its own Chrome browser - now the most used in the world, according to web analytics company StatCounter - and Android mobile operating system. That has been expensive. But that means that it controls the routes into search from computer and smartphone. Google+ hasn#39;t enjoyed the same success but shows it is responding to the threat from social search as well. 谷歌一直在斥巨资开发自己的Chrome浏览器和安卓(Android)移动操作系统。据网络分析公司StatCounter的数据,Chrome目前是全球使用最多的浏览器。谷歌的这类研发花费不菲,但这也意味着谷歌能对电脑和智能手机搜索的通路拥有控制权。谷歌社交网站Google+则没有这么成功,但也显示出正在对来自社交搜索的威胁做出反应。 Baidu, by contrast, has been relatively timid in expanding beyond the core search business. Its PC browser has attracted relatively few users. Its social offering got the cold shoulder from China#39;s Internet users. Market share in mobile search is below that for PCs, though Baidu is moving aggressively to turn that around. 与此相反,百度对其核心搜索业务之外领域的涉猎一直相对谨小慎微。百度个人电脑浏览器吸引的用户数量相对而言微乎其微,其社交网站则受到中国互联网用户的冷遇。百度在移动搜索市场的份额低于在个人电脑搜索市场的份额,不过百度正在积极扭转这一局面。 Qihoo#39;s smash-and-grab raid might not have a lasting effect, but it shows Baidu is vulnerable to those who control the pathways to search. 奇虎360的袭击可能不会产生持久的效果,但这却显示出在那些控制着搜索通路的公司面前,百度也是有弱点的。 /201209/197949。

Apple called BS last week to the U.S. Mac sales numbers IDC and Gartner sent to clients two weeks earlier, AppleInsider‘s Daniel Eran Dilger reported Saturday. The two market research firms had sales falling. Apple had them growing by “strong double digits[s],” according to the earnings call transcript [see note below].据AppleInsider网站的丹尼尔·伊兰·迪尔格上周六报道,苹果(Apple)在上上周指出,IDC与高德纳(Gartner)给出的Mac电脑在美国的销售数字有误。这两家市场调研公司称,Mac电脑在美销售出现下滑,而苹果收益电话会议的文字记录显示,公司称Mac电脑在美销售增长强劲,“增幅高达两位数”。It’s not the first time Gartner and IDC have been caught with their methodological pants down. In November 2010 Asymco’s Horace Dediu was aghast to discover a 77 million unit discrepancy in their mobile phone data — data he depends on to draw his famous charts and graphs.这不是高德纳和IDC第一次被人发现方法论错误。2010年11月,Asymco的贺拉斯o德迪乌惊讶的发现,两者的移动电话销量数据差额高达7700万台,而德迪乌著名的图表正是基于该数据绘制。“Our methodologies, which are continually updated and improved, are among our most valuable assets,” according to Gartner, which goes on to describe them in the vaguest possible terms:高德纳称:“我们的方法论在不断更新和完善,它是我们最宝贵的财富之一。”该公司继续极为含糊其辞的描述道:“Once an objective is set, analysts gather information through formal and informal surveys of IT users, technology providers and investors, business professionals, academicians and other researchers.” [From Inside Gartner Research]“一旦目标设定,分析师会通过向IT用户、技术提供商和投资者、商务人士、学者和其他研究人员发放正式或非正式的调查来收集信息。”[摘自“高德纳内部研究”]It’s even squishier than that, according to a former IDC researcher who spent eight years with the company in the late 1990s and early 2000s.而据一名IDC公司的前研究员称,销售预测比上面说的更不可靠。该研究员曾于20世纪90年代末至21世纪初在IDC工作了八年。After I posted a story about the 77 million missing phones, he described in some detail how IDC goes about estimating sales.我发布了一篇关于“移动电话销量数据相差7700万台”的文章后,这名研究员给我透露了一些IDC公司如何进行销量预测的细节。According to my source, who for legal reasons asked that his name not be used, here’s how it worked:出于法律方面的考虑,这位线人要求匿名。他的讲述如下:“Philip, I know something about this sausage-making process, as I used to do it for IDC. In 3Q98, I did a cross-section, an excavation, if you like, of our methodology, putting a crowbar to it and snapping it into fragments. It was the PC count, but the methodology is the same for phones.“菲利普,我曾在IDC公司从事销量预测,所以对其中的肮脏内幕有所了解。1998年第3季度,我对公司的方法论进行了一番深入挖掘。尽管我做的调查是有关个人电脑销量预测,但手机销量预测的方法论是一样的。 ”“In most quarters, the team starts with OEM guidance and, depending on the country, does some by-country cross-checking. However, for the US team, we just did some systematic adjustments to the vendor guidance and called it a day. For example, we knew that lots of Macs were transshipped from Miami to Latin America. So, we took some percentage of Macs (Apple, of course, never helped; in fact, even objected, saying it wasn’t so) and reallocated them from the US to a smattering of Latin countries, effectively modeling the market but with no low-level data.“在大部分季度,团队先以原始设备制造商的销量指引为基础,并根据国家的不同,按国别进行交叉检验。然而,对于美国市场,我们只对供应商的销量指引做些系统性的调整就算完事。比如,我们知道许多Mac电脑是通过迈阿密转运到拉丁美洲的。因此,我们将美国市场的Mac电脑销量减去一定比例(当然,苹果从来没有帮过忙;事实上该公司甚至反对这种做法,称实情并非如此),由此得出来的销量就被安在几个拉美国家头上。这有效地模拟了市场状况,但缺乏底层数据持。”“So, in 3Q98, I analyzed the ‘choke points,’ those parts of the supply chain where the channel narrowed enough to get a definitive count. At the time, it was OS, processor, graphics, and hard drive. As I recall, I found 20 million processors with no homes. The market at the time was about 100 million, so this was a 20% discrepancy.“因此,在1998年第3季度,我分析了‘瓶颈’,即供应链中渠道窄到足以得到最终数字的部分。当时,“瓶颈”是操作系统、处理器、显卡和硬盘驱动器。我记得,我发现多出了2000万台处理器销量。而当时的市场容量大概是1亿台,所以差额高达20%。”“The process that ensued was a marvel of obfuscation. The leader of the Tracker team figured out a way to rationalize away all the extra units (e.g., multiprocessor servers, inventory, speculation, etc.). It was politically impossible to force the extra units on the regions because it would introduce gross distortions to the historical trends.“随后发生的事情简直堪称蒙混过关的典范。Tracker小组的组长想出了办法,让所有多出的处理器销量变得名正言顺(比如多处理器务器、库存、投机炒作等)。但多出的销量强加到这些类目上会有大问题,因为这将严重扭曲历史趋势。 ”“So, the mantra became, preserve the growth rates; to hell with the actual numbers. Even the growth rates are fiction. The fudge is in the “others” category, which is used as a plug to make the numbers work out. In fairness, we did do survey work, calling around, and attending white box conferences and venues to try to get a feel for that market, but in the end, the process was political. I used to tell customers which parts of the data they could trust, essentially the major vendors by form factor and region. The rest was garbage.“所以,最后就成了保留增速数据,别管实际数字。而即便增长率数据其实也是瞎编。关键在于“其它”类目,每当有平不了的数据就往“其它”里塞。平心而论,我们确实做了调查工作,四处打电话,参加白盒测试会议与聚会,试图感受市场情况,但说到底,整个过程并不靠谱。我曾告诉客户他们能信任哪部分数据,基本上也就是各大厂商的形状因素和地区数据。其它数据都是垃圾。”“The industry itself was aware of these issues, but agreed to maintain the fiction because it was convenient. Most vendors kept their own numbers, but referred to IDC for public purposes. Thing is, real executives got real compensation based on our numbers. There were other games played, but that’s for another time.“该行业本身意识到了这些问题,但选择了继续瞎编,因为这太省事了。大多数供应商自己统计了相关数据,但在公开场合都使用IDC公司给出的数字。关键就在于,那些高管们获得的薪酬是基于我们给出的销售数字。这里头还有其它一些把戏,不过这些下次再说吧。”“The question always came down to, are these fiduciary numbers that investment managers charged with keeping money for widows and orphans rely on, or are they just inside baseball for the industry to squabble over and not all that important? That question has never been answered.”“问题最终归结为,这些预测数据到底是那些为孤儿寡母理财的投资经理们进行投资决策的依据,还是只是行业内部自说自话的产物,根本无足轻重?这个问题一直没有。”[Note: The language Apple CFO Luca Maestri used in his prepared remarks -- ;We achieved strong double digit Mac growth across many countries, including the U.S., Canada, Mexico, the UK, Germany, France, Australia, China, India and the Middle-East; -- is open to interpretation. Does the growth rate apply to the set of countries listed, or to every element in the set?[注:在事先准备的发言中,苹果首席财务官卢卡o马斯特利的原话是:“Mac销量在许多国家实现了强劲的两位数增长,包括美国、加拿大、墨西哥、英国、德国、法国、澳大利亚、中国、印度以及中东。”这句话可以有不同的解释。马斯特利所说的两位数增长,是指上述所有国家的Mac总销量,还是指在以上各个国家的销量?Apple spokesman Steve Dowling confirmed Monday that the growth was double digit (i.e. 10% or more) in each of those markets.]苹果发言人史蒂夫·道林本周一实,Mac销量在上述各市场都实现了两位数增长(即增长率达到10%或10%以上)。] /201407/316469。

A Danish study has revealed that redheads are more sensitive to the cold and are more likely to suffer from toothaches. However the findings also indicate that gingers are less susceptible to skin pain and can handle hot food, Daily Mail reported.据英国《每日邮报》报道,丹麦科学家的研究显示,红头发的人对于寒冷更加敏感,也更容易牙疼。但他们还发现,红头发的人对于皮肤上的疼痛不怎么敏感,且不怕食物烫手。Professor Lars Arendt-Nielsen, one of the researchers, said: ;Our tests showed that redheads are less sensitive to this particular type of pain. They react less to pressure close to the injected area, or to a pinprick. They seem to be a bit better protected, and that is a really interesting finding.;研究人员拉斯;阿里蒂逖说:;测试显示,红头发的人对于这种特别的疼痛不太敏感。他们对于注射处近旁的压力或者针刺的反应不太强烈,就好像他们被保护的很好一样。这个发现真是太有意思了。;It is estimated that 2 percent of the world#39;s population is redheaded. 据估计,全世界有2%的人拥有红色的头发。 /201203/174247。

Last fall, work on my coding side projects came to a head: I wasn’t making adequate progress and I couldn’t find a way to get more done without sacrificing my ability to do effective work at Khan Academy.去年秋天我的业余编程项目(coding side projects)到了一个紧要关头:没有充足的进度,也不能够找到一种方法在既不牺牲我可汗学院(Khan Academy)高效的工作的前提下完成更多的事情。There were a few major problems with how I was working on my side projects. I was primarily working on them during the weekends and sometimes in the evenings during the week. This is a strategy that does not work well for me, as it turns out. I was burdened with an incredible amount of stress to try and complete as much high quality work as possible during the weekend (and if I was unable to it felt like a failure). This was a problem as there’s no guarantee that every weekend will be free – nor that I’ll want to program all day for two days (removing any chance of relaxation or doing anything fun).如何处理我的业余编程项目是有一些严重问题的。我最主要是在周末或者某些工作日的晚上编写代码。如同结果一样,这种策略并不适合我。周末我拖着巨大的压力尝试完成尽可能多的高质量代码(如果我没能完成我会认为自己很失败)。这样想有一个问题,因为没有什么能够保我每个周末都有空,并且想整个周末都写程序而不是抓紧机会放松或。There’s also the issue that a week between working on some code is a long time, it’s very easy to forget what you were working on or what you left off on (even if you keep notes). Not to mention if you miss a weekend you end up with a two week gap as a result. That massive multi-week context switch can be deadly (I’ve had many side projects die due to attention starvation like that).每周写代码之间空挡太长也是个问题。你很容易忘记在做什么、什么还没做完(即使做记录也于事无补)。更不用说如果你错过一个周末,你就会面对长达两周的间隔。大量两周或者更多周的思维转换可是致命的(我的很多业余项目都由于精力不足而终止)。Inspired by the incredible work that Jennifer Dewalt completed last year, in which she taught herself programming by building 180 web sites in 180 days, I felt compelled to try a similar tactic: working on my side projects every single day.我被Jennifer Dewalt去年完成的工作震惊了,她在180天内构建了180个网站以学习编程。受到她的启发,我强迫自己尝试一个相似的策略:每一天都要进行我的业余项目。I decided to set a couple rules for myself:我决定给自己制定一些规则:1.I must write code every day. I can write docs, or blog posts, or other things but it must be in addition to the code that I write.1.我必须每天都写代码。我可以写文档,客或其他的东西。但必须依附于我所写的代码。2.It must be useful code. No tweaking indentation, no code re-formatting, and if at all possible no refactoring. (All these things are permitted, but not as the exclusive work of the day.)2.代码必须是有用的。不能代码微调,不能代码重排,且尽量不要重构。(这些事情都是允许的,但不作为当天特有的工作。)3.All code must be written before midnight.3.所有代码必须在午夜前写。4.The code must be Open Source and up on Github.4.代码必须开源且放在Github上。Some of these rules were arbitrary. The code doesn’t technically need to be written before midnight of the day of but I wanted to avoid staying up too late writing sloppy code. Neither does the code have to be Open Source or up on Github. This just forced me to be more mindful of the code that I was writing (thinking about reusability and deciding to create modules earlier in the process).其中的一些规则有点武断。虽然从技术上来讲代码没必要非得在午夜前写,但我想要避免熬夜太久写糟糕的代码。而且代码没必要开源放在Github上。这只是强迫我写代码时多上点心(想想重用以及决定开发过程早点写模块)。Thus far I’ve been very successful, I’m nearing 20 weeks of consecutive work. I wanted to write about it as it’s completely changed how I code and has had a substantial impact upon my life and psyche.到目前为止我进行得很顺利,我已进行了20周的连续工作。我想要写下这些是因为这方法完全改变了我的编码方式并且对我的生活以及心智都有实质性的影响。With this in mind a number of interesting things happened as a result of this change in habit:有这些规则后,习惯的改变导致了很多有趣的事情发生:Minimum viable code. I was forced to write code for no less than 30 minutes a day. (It’s really hard to write meaningful code in less time, especially after remembering where you left off the day before.) Some week days I work a little bit more (usually no more than an hour) and on weekends I’m sometimes able to work a full day.最少可行代码(Minimum viable code).每天我被强迫写至少30分钟的代码。(少量时间内很难写出有意义的代码,尤其是在记起前一天写到哪里后)有一些工作日我写得多点,但通常少于1小时。而周末,我有时候能一整天当程序猿。Code as habit. It’s important to note that that I don’t particularly care about the outward perception of the above Github chart. I think that’s the most important take away from this experiment: this is about a change that you’re making in your life for yourself not a change that you’re making to satisfy someone else’s perception of your work. The same goes for any form of dieting or exercise: if you don’t care about improving yourself then you’ll never actually succeed.编码即为习惯(Code as habit).其实重要的一点是我并不特别在意Github上的(负面)聊天内容是如何被他人理解的。我认为这是从这个实验中我学到的最重要的东西:这是关于在你一生中为了你自己而进行的改变而非为了让你的工作能讨好他人而进行的改变。这也适用于任何形式的节食或锻炼:如果你不在意提高自己,你是永远也不会成功的。Battling anxiety. Prior to starting this experiment I would frequently feel a high level of anxiety over not having completed “enough” work or made “enough” progress (both of which are relatively unquantifiable as my side projects had no specific deadlines). I realized that the feeling of making progress is just as important as making actual progress. This was an eye-opener. Once I started to make consistent progress every day the anxiety started to melt away. I felt at peace with the amount of work that I was getting done and I no longer had the over-bearing desire to frantically get any work done.抵抗焦虑(Battling anxiety).在开始这个实验之前我经常担心不能够完成足够多的工作量或者取得足够的进展(这两点很难度量,因为我的业余项目没有明确的截止日期)。我发现想要取得进展与实际取得进展是同样的重要。这让我豁然开朗。一旦我开始每天取得持续的进展,焦虑就开始消失了。我对我不断完成的工作量感到欣慰,并且我不再过度疯狂地期望完成更多的工作。Weekends. Getting work done on weekends use to be absolutely critical towards making forward momentum (as they were, typically, the only time in which I got significant side project coding done). That’s not so much the case now – and that’s a good thing. Building up a weeks-worth of expectations about what I should accomplish during the weekend only ended up leaving me disappointed. I was rarely able to complete all the work that I wanted and it forced me to reject other weekend activities that I enjoyed (eating dim sum, visiting museums, going to the park, spending time with my partner, etc.) in favor of getting more work done. I strongly feel that while side projects are really important they should not be to the exclusion of life in general.周末(Weekends).在周末完成的任务曾今对于推进进度是绝对重要的。的确有地表性地,这是我完成业余项目显著代码量的唯一时间。但现在并非如此,不过非常好。在周末完成我一整周所期望的有价值的内容只能以让我以失望告终。我极少能够完成我想要完成的所有工作,而这强迫我放弃其他周末我喜欢的活动(例如,吃中式点心,参观物馆,去公园以及和我的小伙伴在一起玩等)以完成更多的工作。虽然我非常相信业余项目真的很重要,但总之,他们不应该阻碍你的平时生活。Background processing. An interesting side effect of writing side project code every day is that your current task is frequently running in the back of your mind. Thus when I go for a walk, or take a shower, or any of the other non-brain-using activities I participate in, I’m thinking about what I’m going to be coding later and finding a good way to solve that problem. This did not happen when I was working on the code once a week, or every other week. Instead that time was consumed thinking about some other task or, usually, replaced with anxiety over not getting any side project work done.发呆(Background processing).每天都写业余项目的一个有趣的副作用就是当前业余项目的任务会频繁地在你大脑中浮现。这导致当我走路,洗澡或则进行其他不耗费脑力的活动时,我总是在想接下来我要写些什么代码并且寻找好的方法来解决问题(译者注:别人看来就是发呆)。这在我每周或隔一周写一次代码的时候从未出现过。相反这些时间花费在了思考其他的一些任务上,通常是懊恼自己上周没能完成业余项目的工作量。Context switch. There’s always going to be a context switch cost when resuming work on a side project. Unfortunately it’s extremely hard to resume thinking about a project after an entire week of working on another task. Daily work has been quite helpful in this regard as the time period between work is much shorter, making it easier to remember what I was working on.思维转换(Context switch). 继续业余项目时总是会有思维转换代价的。不幸的是,当一整周都在干其他任务的工作时,这转变是及其困难的。就每天都写代码而言是非常有利的,因为工作间歇时间更短。这使得回忆起正在做什么更容易。Work balance. One of the most important aspects of this change was in simply learning how to better balance work/life/side project. Knowing that I was going to have to work on the project every single day I had to get better at balancing my time. If I was scheduled to go out in the evening, and not get back until late, then I would need to work on my side project early in the day, before starting my main Khan Academy work. Additionally if I hadn’t finished my work yet, and I was out late, then I’d hurry back home to finish it up (instead of missing a day). I should note that I’ve been finding that I have less time to spend on hobbies (such as woodblock printing) but that’s a reasonable tradeoff that I’ll need to live with.工作权衡(Work balance). 这个改变最重要的一方面是直接学会了如何更好地权衡工作/生活/业余项目。由于明确了我每天都会工作在业余项目上,我必须更好地平衡我的时间。如果我计划晚上外出并且会很晚才回来,那么我会在一天中早些时候,既在开始我的可汗学院的主要工作前,完成我的业余项目的工作量。而且如果我没有完成我的任务,并且在外待得很晚,我会赶回家完成他而不遗漏一天。我应该注意到了我拥有更少地时间可花费在爱好上(例如版画),但这是我需要面对的合理的折衷。Outward perception. This has all had the added benefit of communicating this new habit externally. My partner understands that I have to finish this work every day, and thus activities sometimes have to be scheduled around it. It’s of considerable comfort to be able to say “Yes, we can go out/watch a movie/etc. but I have to get my coding in later” and have that be understood and taken into consideration.他人看法(Outward perception). 把这个新的习惯告诉别人让我更受益。我的小伙伴理解我需要每天完成这个工作,因此有的时候活动安排也很迁就我的工作。能够说“没问题,我们可以出去玩/看电影/等,但我等会儿要当会儿程序猿”并且能够被理解和考虑在内是相当欣慰的。How much code was written? I have a hard time believing how much code I’ve written over the past few months. I created a couple new web sites, re-wrote some frameworks, and created a ton of new node modules. I’ve written so much I sometimes forget the things I’ve made – work from even a few weeks prior seem like a distant memory. I’m extremely pleased with the amount of work that I’ve gotten done.能写多少代码?我简直不敢相信我上个月写了多少代码。我制作了一堆新的网站,重写一些框架,并且创建了大量新的节点模块(node modules)。我写了如此的多,以至于我有时候都忘记了我到底干了些什么,前一周的工作都好像是很遥远的记忆样。我对我所完成的工作量是及其满意的。I consider this change in habit to be a massive success and hope to continue it for as long as I can. In the meantime I’ll do all that I can to recommend this tactic to others who wish to get substantial side project work done. Let me know if this technique does, or doesn’t, work for you – I’m very interested in hearing additional anecdotes!我认为这个习惯改变是一个很大的成功并且希望能尽可能地继续下去。与此同时,我将倾尽所有将这个策略推荐给其他希望让其业余项目有实质进展的人。无论这个技术对于你是有用或者没用,请告诉我。我会非常乐意听更多的趣事的! /201411/342612。

Last week, rumors concerning the value of Elon Musk’s SpaceX rippled across the Web after tech startup-watcher TechCrunch reported that private investment in the company valued it at “somewhere south of billion.” SpaceX quickly quashed the rumor. “SpaceX is not currently raising any funding nor has any external valuation of that magnitude or higher been done,” a company spokesman said in a statement. And so SpaceX ended the week just as it began it, despite having briefly enjoyed the status of a billion industry behemoth.私营航天业非常不透明,SpaceX又口风甚严,再加上风投领域的小道消息看起来很不可靠,这让人们很难对它进行解读。同样的,该公司的自我描述也不一定能成为对它进行评价的依据(埃隆o穆斯克说SpaceX将在未来10年里登陆火星。该公司总裁格温o肖特韦尔则放言,到2100年SpaceX将成为太阳系运输领域的主导者。在这两个时点之间,SpaceX还打算把火箭有效载荷提高到58.5吨)。评估该公司当前价值和升值潜力的最佳途径也许不是金钱或者豪言壮语,而是观察这一业界新贵对商业航天领域的竞争对手产生了怎样的影响。The private spaceflight industry is so opaque and SpaceX’s cards are so closely held that it is difficult to get a on the company, especially using the venture capital rumor mill. Nor can one necessarily judge SpaceX based on what the company says about itself. (Elon Musk says that the company is headed to Mars in the next decade. SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell boasts that by 2100 the company will dominate transportation across the solar system. Between them is a 58.5-ton payload of ambition.) Perhaps the best way to evaluate SpaceX and its potential value isn’t in dollar figures or in audacious claims, but by observing what the upstart space firm is aly doing to its competition in the commercial space industry.20世纪80年代初,美国退出了商业航天市场。从那时起,商业航天器发射领域基本上就处于被欧洲公司垄断的状态,比如法国的Arianespace[法国航空业巨头空中客车(Airbus)持有部分股份]和International Launch Services[美俄合资,采用俄罗斯质子号(Proton)运载火箭的技术发射卫星]。尽管SpaceX通过为国际空间站(International Space Station)运送补给从美国国家航空航天局(NASA)获得了很大一部分收入,但在该公司截至2018年的40多次发射任务中,价值2000亿美元的卫星发射市场也占了很大的比重,而且这个比例还在不断上升。That competition—mostly European space launch providers like France’s Arianespace (partially owned by French aerospace giant Airbus) and International Launch Services (a U.S.-Russia joint venture that launches satellites aboard Russian Proton launch technology)—has largely held a monopoly on commercial space launches since the U.S. retreated from the industry in the early 1980s. Though SpaceX derives a chunk of its income from NASA in exchange for resupplying the International Space Station, the 0 billion satellite industry makes up a huge and growing chunk of SpaceX’s nearly 40-strong launch manifest through 2018.SpaceX的航天器发射价格有时仅仅为传统竞争对手的一半,这让它在较短时间里成功实现了很高的市场占有率。该公司安全记录良好,业界对其核心业务的信心也不断增强。今年夏天,SpaceX为在德克萨斯州南部建立自己的专用发射场铺平了道路,并且开始实验火箭循环使用技术,这有可能大幅降低发射成本。By offering space launch services at prices that in some cases undercut the traditional launch industry by half, SpaceX has managed significant market penetration in a relatively short period of time. It has a strong safety record and industry confidence in its core services is growing. Over the summer the company cleared the path toward construction of its own dedicated launch facility in southern Texas while also experimenting with reusable rocket stage technology that could reduce launch costs by an order of magnitude.如果SpaceX在欧洲等地的竞争对手相信所有这些都只是炒作,那它们表达这种态度的方式也太奇怪了。就算不仔细观察也能发现,这些公司看来正在慌忙展开行动。In January, the president of the French national space agency (and former Arianespace CEO) wrote an op-ed in France’s Le Monde detailing all the things SpaceX has done right, calling on the European space industry to adapt as quickly as possible. In February, Arianespace’s current chairman and CEO Stephane Israel told the European Space Agency that it may need additional subsidies from European governments in order to remain a viable competitor, citing the arrival of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 medium-lift rocket as the cause of its competitive headaches. At the Berlin Airshow in July, Airbus Group CEO Tom Enders urged Europe to completely overhaul its space launcher industry, mentioning SpaceX and CEO Elon Musk by name. “Musk gives us the opportunity to shake up what has been quite a successful European space industry,” Enders told Reuters. “We either much improve and integrate our industrial structures or we’ll become irrelevant.”今年1月份,法国国家宇航局总裁(曾任Arianespace首席执行官)在法国《世界报》(Le Monde)发表社论文章,详细列举了SpaceX采取过的正确措施,并敦促欧洲航天业尽快效仿。2月份,Arianespace现任董事长兼首席执行官斯塔费恩o伊斯雷尔向欧洲航天局(European Space Agency)表示,自己的公司可能需要欧洲政府提供更多补贴,以便保持足够的竞争力。他说,SpaceX推出猎鹰9号(Falcon 9)中型运载火箭对Arianespace构成了相当大的竞争压力。在7月份的柏林国际航空航天展上,空客集团(Airbus Group)CEO汤姆o恩德斯敦促欧洲航天器发射企业进行彻底革新,并且提到了SpaceX及其首席执行官埃隆o穆斯克。恩德斯在接受路透社(Reuters)采访时表示:“虽然欧洲航天业一直都相当成功,而穆斯克给我们带来了对它进行重整的机会。我们得大幅改进并整合这个行业的结构,不然就会变得无足轻重。”It’s not just talk coming out of the global space industry. In July Arianespace cut its launch prices in an effort to minimize SpaceX’s market advantage, though its prices are reportedly still nowhere near as low as SpaceX’s. Airbus and Safran, a French propulsion systems maker, have entered into a 50-50 joint venture aimed at designing a new, less costly rocket for Europe. Several European space officials and potential future customers have called for a rethinking and possible redesign of Arianespace’s new Ariane 6 rocket.这些航天公司不光是嘴上说说而已。7月份,Arianespace下调了航天器发射价格,目的是尽量削弱SpaceX在市场上的优势。但据报道,和SpaceX的低廉价格相比,Arianespace还差得很远。空客和法国推进系统制造商赛峰集团(Safran)已经建立了一家合资公司,双方各出资一半。这家合资公司旨在为欧洲设计一款成本较低的新型火箭。欧洲航天部门的几名官员和一些潜在未来客户都已要求Arianespace重新考虑乃至重新设计它新推出的阿丽亚娜6型(Ariane 6)火箭。Back in the U.S., competitors that have traditionally enjoyed non-competitive launch markets have found themselves forced to respond to SpaceX. Earlier this year SpaceX sued the ed States Air Force over an billion contract awarded to Boeing-Lockheed Martin joint venture ed Launch Alliance (ULA) for a block of military satellite launches. SpaceX claims the contract was awarded through a bidding process that was not competitive, and a federal judge has ordered a review of the dealings. Even as it was suing the Air Force, SpaceX still managed to receive USAF certification to launch military hardware aboard it Falcon 9 rocket.美国方面,以往在航天器发射领域从未遇到过竞争的那些公司发现,自己必须针对SpaceX采取相应措施。今年早些时候,SpaceX把美国空军告上了法庭,原因是后者将一系列军事卫星发射任务交给了波音(Boeing)和洛克希德-马丁(Lockheed Martin)设立的合资公司ed Launch Alliance(ULA)。SpaceX提出,这份合同在招标时并没有采用竞争的方式。一名联邦法院法官已经下令就此进行审查。就算双方正在打官司,SpaceX还是通过了美国空军的认,从而有资格用自己的猎鹰9号火箭发射军用航天器。“While the European Space Agency, Arianespace, Safran may not have taken SpaceX seriously before, those entities certainly are taking SpaceX seriously now,” says Richard David, co-founder and CEO of commercial space industry analysis firm NewSpace Global, whose global ranking of private space companies places SpaceX at the very top. “NSG analysts track around 700 companies worldwide, and it’s not just about SpaceX and its European launch competitors. But SpaceX is ranked number one for a reason.”在商业航天业分析机构NewSpace Global(简称:NSG)的私营航天公司排行榜上,SpaceX高居榜首。NSG联合创始人兼首席执行官理查德o戴维说:“虽然欧洲航天局、Arianespace和赛峰以前可能没把它当回事,但现在它们一定严阵以待。我们的分析师追踪全球约700家公司,不光是SpaceX和它的欧洲竞争对手。但SpaceX独占鳌头有它的道理。”The fact that absolutely no one in the business of launching payloads into space has been able to ignore SpaceX as it piles success upon success says more about the company and its future prospects than any rumored dollar valuation. And just as important to SpaceX’s future prospects is the global aerospace industry’s inability to respond. The high costs and myriad challenges inherent in the commercial spaceflight industry—this is, quite literally, rocket science—means that most of SpaceX’scompetitors are either joint ventures like ULA and Airbus-Safran or large, bureaucratic, multinationals like Arianespace, which counts two dozen major shareholders from nearly a dozen European states all asserting influence and competing interests into the company calculus.在航天器发射领域,绝对没有谁能对接二连三获得成功的SpaceX视而不见,这比任何估值传闻都能更好地体现SpaceX的现状和未来。同时,世界上其他航天公司无力对SpaceX进行反击,这对该公司的未来前景同样重要。商业航天代价昂贵而且挑战纷繁,这是名副其实的“高科技”,这也意味着SpaceX的大多数竞争对手要么是合资企业,就像ULA以及空客和赛峰的合资公司,要么就是像Arianespace那样的官僚型跨国公司,它们有二十几个大股东,来自十几个欧洲国家,这些股东都想对公司产生影响,又都在其中争夺利益。“They’re aly responding, or trying to figure out the best way to respond,” says Kate Maliga, an industry analyst at aerospace and defense analysts Tauri Group, of SpaceX’s competitors. “But it’s hard, especially with the complicated structure of European governments and industry. There’s very little they can do in the next year or two, but they feel like they need to respond and they will try.”航天和军工分析机构Tauri Group的行业分析师凯特o马利加说:“它们已经开始采取对策,或者正在寻找最佳的应对方法。但这很难,特别是考虑到欧洲政府和行业的复杂结构。今后一、两年它们基本上将束手无策,但它们觉得自己需要这样做,而且也会进行尝试。”SpaceX may seem to be riding as its competitors struggle to adapt, but the company has by no means conquered the industry, Maliga says. Satellite companies are by nature risk-averse, and no company wants to have only one launch provider handling all of its multimillion-dollar hardware. Though SpaceX continues to build industry confidence, Arianespace aly has a decades-long established record of launching successfully and on time—the latter something SpaceX has struggled with. For satellite television providers broadcasting the World Cup, for instance, a delay in launching a satellite can cost many more millions than the price disparity between Arianespace and SpaceX, Maliga says. Which means SpaceX’s successes do not spell doom for its more expensive competitors, at least not yet.马利加指出,在竞争对手难以招架之际,SpaceX看起来也许一帆风顺,但无论如何也不能说它已经征了这个行业。卫星公司本质上都厌恶风险,而且没有哪家公司愿意把自己价值数百亿美元的设备都交给同一家发射务供应商。尽管SpaceX让业界对它越来越有信心,但几十年来,Arianespace一直都能做到成功而准时地发射,而SpaceX在准时方面做得并不如意。马利加举例说,对于转播世界杯赛事的卫视来说,卫星发射受到延误所产生的成本可能比Arianespace和SpaceX之间价差要多得多。也就是说,SpaceX的成功并不会让要价较高的竞争对手遭受灭顶之灾,至少现在还没有。“I don’t see anyone being an absolute existential threat to anyone at this point,” Jon Beland, a senior analyst at defense and aerospace industry consultancy Avascent, says. “The launch industry has historically undergone cycles where new entrants enter the field and shuffle the cards around. It’s still too early to tell.”军工和航天业咨询机构Avascent高级分析师乔恩o贝兰德指出:“目前还没有谁能给别人带来生死攸关的威胁。航天器发射领域会在行业新军到来后重新洗牌,历史上这种情况反复出现。现在下结论还为时过早。” /201409/326515。