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2018年04月24日 22:00:33
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福州美贝尔医疗整形美容医院口腔科福州去痣多少钱一颗As former president Mahinda Rajapaksa comes to terms with his second electoral defeat in eight months, many in Sri Lanka are also predicting what once seemed unthinkable: the final political demise of a leader who, until just a year ago, seemed to hold an iron grip on their country.斯里兰卡前总统马欣达拉贾帕克萨(Mahinda Rajapaksa)不得不接个月内第二次在选举中落败的事实。与此同时,在许多斯里兰卡人的预期中,出现了一度似乎不可想象的一幕:一位在短短一年前似乎还严密掌控着国家权柄的领导人,就要走上政治末路。Mr Rajapaksa hoped Tuesday’s result would herald an unlikely comeback allowing him to seize the office of prime minister while simultaneously avenging his downfall at the hands of former party ally Maithripala Sirisena in presidential elections in January.拉贾帕克萨曾希望,周二公布的选举结果能让他可能性不大的东山再起梦想成真,让他能在夺取总理宝座的同时,报今月在总统选举中被前党内盟友迈特里帕拉缠里塞纳(Maithripala Sirisena)赶下台的一箭之仇。Instead, his Sri Lanka Freedom party trailed in second behind the centre-right ed National party. The result leaves the UNPs Ranil Wickremesinghe set to return as prime minister, having claimed victory on Tuesday, and form a new coalition government in the island’s 225-member parliament. Analysts say Mr Rajapaksa’s departure after a 10-year rule could herald a new era, one in which Sri Lanka faces up to brutality of its past and distances itself from its once cosy relationship with Beijing.然而事与愿违,他领导的斯里兰卡自由Freedom party)在此次选举中落在中右翼统一国民ed National party)之后,屈居第二。这一结果令统一国民党的拉尼尔维克勒马辛Ranil Wickremesinghe)得以回归总理宝座,并在斯里兰25人组成的议会中构建新的联合政府。维克勒马辛哈已在周二宣布胜选。分析人士表示,拉贾帕克萨在统治斯里兰卡十年后离开政治舞台,或预示着斯里兰卡迈入新时代。在这个新时代里,斯里兰卡将直面过去的残暴行径,并淡化与中国一度十分亲密的关系。As in Januarys contest, Mr Rajapaksa’s appeals to the Sinhalese-speaking Buddhist majority failed to rack up enough votes to overcome more liberal-minded urban voters, alongside those backing Tamil parties, which won overwhelmingly in the island’s north.和今月的选举一样,拉贾帕克萨对占人口多数的讲僧伽罗语的佛教徒的拉拢,未能为他带来足够的选票,以击败思想倾向自由主义的城市选民以及那些持泰米尔党派的选民。在斯里兰卡北部,泰米尔党派取得了压倒性胜利。At a deeper level, however, analysts said the result represented a rejection of the muscular nationalism embodied by Mr Rajapaksas rule, borne of his role as victor in the islands civil war, which ended in a crushing defeat for the Tamil Tiger rebels in .不过,分析人士表示,这一选举结果从更深层次来说,意味着对拉贾帕克萨统治所体现的强硬民族主义的拒绝。拉贾帕克萨是以斯里兰卡内战胜利者身份确立这种统治的009年,这场内战以泰米尔猛虎组织(Tamil Tiger)叛军的全面失败告终。“The hope must now be that a double defeat means Sri Lanka can move on, and begin to solve some of the issues of post-war reconciliation and devolution of power that have been so difficult,says Alan Keenan of the International Crisis Group.国际危机组织(International Crisis Group)的艾伦蘒Alan Keenan)表示:“目前的全部希望在于,(拉贾帕克萨的)二次落败意味着斯里兰卡能够走出过去的阴影,着手解决部分战后和解与权力下放问题。这些问题一直难以得到解决。”Making good on promises of better governance will be one early challenge, and one of direct interest to Mr Rajapaksa himself, as he braces for an array of corruption investigations. Opponents claim the Rajapaksa’s family-dominated regime siphoned away huge sums during its decade in power, including from the many Chinese-backed infrastructure schemes that symbolised Sri Lanka’s post-war economic boom.兑现改善治理的承诺,将是这一时代面临的早期挑战之一,也关系到拉贾帕克萨的切身利益。拉贾帕克萨即将接受一系列反腐调查。反对者称,在拉贾帕克萨掌权的十年期间,由他家族把持的政权黑掉了不少钱,包括从中国投资的基建计划中黑走的钱。这些计划曾是斯里兰卡战后经济繁荣的象征。Instead, Mr Wickremesinghe talks of a market-friendly economic policy, placing less emphasis on financial ties with China, and more on tempting global companies to use the south Asian island as a base for export-led manufacturing. He is likely to keep rebalancing Sri Lanka’s international relations too, patching up ties with India and the west after a decade in which Mr Rajapaksa cosied up to Beijing.而维克勒马辛哈谈论的是亲市场的经济政策,对斯中金融合作强调得要少一些,更侧重于吸引全球企业将这个南亚岛国用作出口导向型制造业的基地。他可能还会继续努力再平衡斯里兰卡的国际关系,在拉贾帕克萨奉行亲中国政策十年之后,修补斯里兰卡与印度及西方的关系。来 /201508/394779福州美贝尔医疗美容治疗青春痘多少钱The truth may finally be wearing off the old saying that India only ever compares itself with itself. As the Indian economy has proved to be one of the least dim spots in a gloomy emerging market landscape, boasts are multiplying that it is overtaking China as the engine of world expansion. Jayant Sinha, Indias junior finance minister, recently laid down the bold prediction that ;in coming days, India will leave China behind as far as growth and development matter. 人们老说,印度永远只是自己与自己比较,这句话或许终于开始站不住脚了。在一片灰暗的新兴市场图景中,印度经济事实上相对比较亮眼,于是印度将取代中国成为世界增长引擎的吹嘘也越来越多。印度副财长贾扬特·辛Jayant Sinha)最近大胆预测称,“用不了多久,印度就将在增长和发展方面把中国甩在身后。”。Not, as it were, so fast. While Indias short-term macroeconomic performance has put it at a better place in the cycle than most big emerging markets, the longer-term structural problems that have kept it in a lower growth class than China unfortunately persist, as do the political elephant traps awaiting intrepid reformers. 这么说吧,就算印度能把中国甩在身后,也不会那么快。尽管印度宏观经济短期表现抢眼,让它在周期中的位置好于大多数的大型新兴市场,但较长期的结构性问题令人遗憾地一直存在(该问题让印度与中国相比处于较低的增长级别),摆在无畏改革家面前的政治上的大象陷阱同样如此。On the face of it, the Indian economy is performing well, and the popularity of Narendra Modi, the prime minister elected on the promise of liberalising reform last year, is holding up. Christine Lagarde, IMF managing director, has referred to India as a ;bright spot; in the slowing global economy. Growth equalled Chinas last year at 7.3 per cent, and the IMF predicts India will be the fastest-growing large economy in the world this year. 表面看来,印度经济表现良好,去年凭借承诺推行自由化改革而当选的印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪(Narendra Modi),如今依然深受民众欢迎。国际货币基金组IMF)总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德(Christine Lagarde)认为印度是不断放缓的全球经济中的一个“亮点”。印度去年的增长率与中国相当,都.3%,IMF预测,印度今年将成为全球增长最快的大型经济体。The reality is less encouraging. For one, the statistics may quite simply be wrong. A new data series for GDP introduced in February did much of the work in raising Indias growth rate near Chinas, and the numbers, with a short history and without detailed data to underpin them, sit at odds with other indicators such as industrial production and imports. 现实情况则没有那么乐观。一方面,统计数据很可能是错的。印度今月引入的一个新的GDP数据系列调高了它去年的增长率,对该数据赶上中国起到了很大作用,这些数值历史短暂,没有详细的基础数据作撑,而且与工业产值和进口等其他指标相冲突。Second, the current conjuncture has been delivered by a number of one-off factors. The falling global oil price since late 2014 has benefited India both in holding down inflation and in helping Mr Modi reform public finances by cutting expensive government fuel subsidies without raising the price to consumers. 其次,印度去年增长率赶上中国是一系列一次性因素造就的。自2014年末以来,全球油价“跌跌不休”,这让印度从两方面受益,一方面通胀得到抑制,另一方面莫迪的公共财政改革具备了比较有利的条件,让他能够在不用向消费者提高价格的情况下削减昂贵的政府燃料补贴。Third, substantial impediments remain to the challenge of increasing investment, particularly in infrastructure, to unlock Indias potential for competing with east Asian countries for the manufacturing industry currently being priced out of China by rising wages and costs. Growth in manufacturing came to a halt between 2012 and 2014 after several years of expansion, casting severe doubts on its underlying momentum. 第三,在眼下中国工资水平和成本不断上升,导致制造业被迫撤离之际,印度希望增加投资(尤其是基础设施方面的投资),以释放自己的潜力,与亚洲东部国家竞争、吸引从中国撤离出来的制造业落户。要实现这个愿望,印度依然面临重大障碍。在数年扩张之后,印度制造业增长012年至2014年间出现停滞,令人严重怀疑其潜在动能。Certainly, macroeconomic policy has improved compared with earlier eras. Fiscal and current account deficits remain manageable. The Reserve Bank of India, which has traditionally struggled with a multiplicity of targets and instruments, adopted a more conventional model, targeting consumer price inflation using the short-term interest rate. Under Raghuram Rajan, who took over as governor in 2013, the RBI got on top of inflation by rapidly raising rates. It has now been able to cut them by 125 basis points to stimulate growth while other EM countries such as Turkey and Brazil have had to tighten. 当然,与早些时期相比,宏观经济政策已经有所改善。财政赤字和经常账户逆差依然可控。从传统上来说,印度央行(Reserve Bank of India)处理不好多样化的目标和工具,它采取了更为常规的模型,使用短期利率来控制居民消费价格指CPI)。拉古拉姆·拉Raghuram Rajan)013年出任印度央行行长,在他的领导下,该行通过迅速提高利率控制住了通胀。现在印度央行能够降25个基点来刺激增长,而土耳其和巴西等其他新兴市场国家则不得不紧缩。But the RBI statement accompanying its latest cut, a larger-than-expected 50 basis points on September 29, made quite clear that the contribution of monetary policy to growth was running out of room. Mr Rajan said: ;While the Reserve Banks stance will continue to be accommodative, the focus of monetary action for the near term will shift to working with the Government to ensure that impediments to banks passing on the bulk of the cumulative 125 basis points cut in the policy rate are removed.; 但是,伴随着最近一次降息—9日利率下0个基点,超出市场预期——印度央行的声明已经相当明确地表明,货币政策对增长的贡献空间正逐步用尽。拉詹称,“尽管印度央行将继续维持宽松立场,但近期货币举措的重点将转向与政府一道努力,以确保阻碍将125个基点的渐增式政策性利率下调大部分传递下去的障碍得到清除。”Indeed, problems in the banking sector are exactly one of the problems holding back investment. State-controlled banks have overlent, often under political inducement, to failed infrastructure projects, and overall the accretion of bad loans in the system is blocking the extension of fresh credit. The state banks will need new capital over the next few years, the government wanting nearly two-thirds of it to be raised from markets, but whether that will permit the widescale rationalisation and privatisation that many banks need remains to be seen. 的确,业的问题正是阻碍投资的因素之一。国有在失败的基础设施建设项目上过度放贷(通常是在政治原因诱导下),而且体系内累积的整体坏账正阻碍着新贷款的发放。未来数年,国有将需要新资本——政府希望从市场筹集其中的三分之二——但是这是否会使得许多得以实施它们亟需的普遍重组和私有化,仍有待观察。There is a problem with the demand for investment lending as well as the supply. India has always struggled to expand its industrial sector on a scale to match the fast-growing economies of east Asia, and the share of manufacturing in the Indian economy appears to have stalled at a lower rate than for other emerging economies. 投资贷款的需求和供应都存在一个问题。印度一直难以将自己的工业部门扩大至可以与快速增长的东亚经济体相抗衡的规模,同时制造业在印度经济中所占份额的增长速度似乎已经在低于其他新兴经济体的水平上陷入停滞。Alongside poor supporting infrastructure, one of the reasons has almost certainly been the difficulty of acquiring land for industrial development, given the complexity of antiquated land laws. Long before Mr Modi came to power, the problem was symbolised by Tata being forced to relocate the manufacturing plant for its Nano car across India after it was driven out of its initial site in West Bengal by angry locals, raising the cost of the project. 除了基础设施不完善之外,鉴于印度过时的土地法的复杂性,几乎可以肯定地说,工业开发用地难以获得也是阻碍印度制造业发展的一个原因。这一问题可以以塔Tata)迁厂事件为代表。那还是在莫迪上台之前,当时,因为当地人抗议,塔塔被迫放弃在西孟加拉West Bengal)建Nano汽车生产厂,将厂址迁往印度别处,使得项目成本增加。Reforming land acquisition laws was one of Mr Modis signature projects as prime minister. But a change in the law, along with the introduction of a value-added “Goods and Services Tax stalled this summer in a session of parliament dominated by corruption scandals rather than legislative progress. Without the ability to build large-scale industrial plants near a source of workers, any Indian push into manufacturing is likely to be dominated by capital-intensive projects that provide fewer jobs. 对土地征用法律进行改革是莫迪作为总理的标志性项目之一。但是修订法律、以及引入增值性“商品及务税GST)的议案,今年夏天在腐败丑闻缠身、打乱立法议程的议会会期中搁浅。考虑到企业无法在劳动力密集地区附近建设大型工厂,印度推动制造业发展的任何努力可能都会以提供较少就业的资本密集型项目为主。Mr Modis government insists it will push on with reform but, given the snarl-ups in parliament over the summer, his political space is shrinking. An important test of his governments political momentum comes next month in the state elections in Bihar. The eastern state has long been one of Indias poorest and, while it has been growing rapidly, it has struggled to expand its manufacturing sector. If Mr Modis message of clearing away the impediments to investment does not resonate, it does not bode well for his chances of maintaining momentum into next year. 莫迪政府坚称将继续推进改革,但是考虑到整个夏天议会的混乱,他的政治操作空间正在缩小。在下个月比哈尔Bihar)的议会选举中,莫迪政府的政治劲头将迎来重要考验。位于印度东部的比哈尔邦长期以来一直是印度最贫困的邦之一,尽管目前正在迅速增长,但比哈尔一直难以扩大其制造业。如果莫迪清除投资障碍的信息没能在比哈尔引起共鸣,这对莫迪明年能否继续维持其政治劲头将不是个好兆头。For the moment, it seems that India will be happy being regarded as a standout in the otherwise disappointing emerging market class. If its cyclical advantage fades and it returns to its familiar sub-China levels of growth, its politicians are unlikely to be so vainglorious. 目前,印度似乎会满足于被认为在整体令人失望的新兴市场经济体中一枝独秀。如果印度的周期性优势消失,它回到它并不陌生的低于中国的经济增速水平,那印度的政界人士可能就不会如此洋洋自得了。来 /201510/405801湖北省美贝尔妇产医院做韩式隆鼻手术多少钱

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