旅游  |  攻略  |  美食  |  自驾  |  团购
您的位置: 青海省旅游网 / 规划 / 新闻动态 / 青海要闻


来源:中国面诊    发布时间:2019年10月23日 07:49:34    编辑:admin         

In 1941 Time editor Henry Luce proclaimed “the American century Some now see this coming to an end as a result of the nation’s economic and political decline. Many point to the example of US failure to convince its allies to stay out of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Beijing’s rival to the World Bank; but this was more an example of a faulty decision than evidence of decline, which raises the question of what is the natural life cycle of a nation.1941年,《时代》杂Time)主编亨利#8226;卢斯(Henry Luce)宣称,“美国世纪”已经来临。现在有些人认为,随着美国在经济和政治上走向衰落,美国世纪正趋于结束。许多人援引美国未能阻止盟友加入亚洲基础设施投资(AIIB,简称:亚投行)作为一个例子——亚投行是中国政府提议创立、与世界(World Bank)争风头的一个机构。但这只能表明一个错误的决定,而不能表明美国已经衰萀?这引出一个问题:一个国家正常的生命周期有多长?A century is generally the limit for a human organism but countries are social constructs. Rome did not collapse until more than three centuries after it reached its apogee of power in 117AD. After American independence in 1776 Horace Walpole, the British politician, lamented that his nation had been reduced to the level of Sardinia, just as Britain was about to enter the industrial revolution that powered its second century as a global power.一个世纪通常是人类机体生存的极限,但国家是社会结构。古罗马在公17年达到实力的巅峰,但它随后又延续00多年才解体776年美国独立后,英国政界人士霍勒斯#8226;沃波Horace Walpole)哀叹道,他的国家已沦为撒丁岛(Sardinia,位于意大利半岛的西南方,是地中海的第二大岛——译者注)的水平,可随后英国开启工业革命,在接下来的一个世纪里仍然是全球强囀?Any effort at assessing American power in the coming decades should take into account how many earlier efforts have been wide of the mark. It is chastening to remember how wildly exaggerated US estimates of Soviet power in the 1970s and of Japanese power in the 1980s were. Today some see the Chinese as 10ft tall and proclaim this “the Chinese century要评估美国在今后几十年的实力,就得考虑早先有多少评估不靠谱。别忘了,美国对上世0年代的苏联和上世0年代的日本都曾做出过离谱的高估,这足以令人引以为戒。如今,一些人认为中国人有10英尺高,并宣称现在是“中国世纪”。China’s size and relatively rapid economic growth will bring it closer to the US in terms of its power resources in the next few decades. But this does not necessarily mean it will surpass the US in military, economic and soft power.就实力资源而言,庞大的规模和相对快速的经济增长将让中国在今后几十年逼近美国。但这未必意味着中国将在军事、经济和软实力方面超越美囀?Even if China suffers no big domestic political setback, many projections are simple linear extrapolations of growth rates that are likely to slow in the future. Moreover, economic projections are one dimensional. They ignore US military and soft power advantages, such as the desire of students around the world to attend US universities. They also overlook China’s geopolitical dis#172;advantages in the Asian balance of power, compared with America’s relations with Europe, Japan and India, which are likely to remain more favourable.即便中国国内没有发生重大的政治挫折,许多预测也只是对经济增长率作简单的线性外推,而未来经济增长是可能放缓的。此外,经济预测只是一个方面。他们忽视了美国在军事和软实力方面的优势,比如世界各地的学生都想到美国上大学。他们也忽视了,相对于美国与欧洲、日本和印度的关系(这些关系很可能保持在比较有利的状况),中国在亚洲实力平衡方面的地缘政治劣势。It is not impossible that a challenger such as China, Europe, Russia, India or Brazil will surpass the US in the first half of this century but it is but not likely.中国、欧洲、俄罗斯、印度或巴西等挑战者在本世纪上半叶超越美国不是没有可能,但可能性不大。On the question of absolute rather than relative American decline, the US faces serious problems in areas such as debt, secondary education, income in#172;equality and political gridlock but these are only part of the picture. On the positive side of the ledger are favourable trends in demography, technology and energy as well as abiding factors such as geography and entrepreneurial culture.在美国绝对(而非相对)衰落的问题上,美国在债务、中学教育、收入不平等以及政治僵局等领域面临严峻问题,但这些只是整个图景的一部分。有利的一面是,美国在人口结构、技术和能源方面的有利趋势以及地理和创业文化等长期有利因素。The scenarios that could precipitate decline include ones in which the US overreacts to terrorist attacks by turning inwards and thus cuts itself off from the strength it obtains from openness. Alternatively it could react by overcommitting itself, and wasting blood and treasure as it did in Vietnam and Iraq.可能触发美国衰落的情形包括,美国对恐怖袭击反应过度,转向闭关自守,切断自己从开放获取的力量。抑或它可能过度投入,浪费美国人的生命和财产,就像在越南和伊拉克那样。As an overall assessment, describing the 21st century as one of American decline is inaccurate and misleading. Though the US has problems it is not in absolute decline, unlike ancient Rome, and it is likely to remain more powerful than any single state in coming decades.作为一个总体评估,将21世纪称为美国衰落的世纪是不准确和误导的。尽管美国存在种种问题,但它并没有陷入绝对衰落——这与古罗马不同——在接下来的几十年里它很可能依然比任何一个国家都更加强大。The real problem is not that it will be overtaken by China or another contender but rather that it faces a rise in the power resources of many others both states and non-state actors such as transnational corporations, terrorist groups and cyber criminals. And it will face an increasing number of global problems that will call on our ability to organise alliances and networks.真正的问题不是美国将被中国或者另一个竞争对手超越,而是它面临其它许多实体(包括国家和非国家实体,如跨国企业、恐怖组织和网络罪犯)实力资源的上升。美国还将面临越来越多的全球问题,需要我们有能力组建联盟和网络。Contrary to the views of those who proclaim this the Chinese century, we have not entered a post-American world. But the American century of the future will not look the same as in previous decades. The US share of the world economy will be smaller than it was in the middle of the past century.与那些宣1世纪是中国世纪的观点相反,我们并未进入“后美国”世界。但未来的美国世纪看上去将与过去几十年不同。美国在全球经济中所占的份额将小于上世纪中叶那段时期。Furthermore, the complexity created by the rise of other countries, as well as the increased role of non-state actors, will make it harder for even America, the biggest power, to wield influence and organise action. Entropy is a greater challenge than China.此外,其他国家崛起所导致的复杂性,加上非国家实体的角色上升,将让即便身为头号强国的美国也更难施加影响和组织行动。无序是比中国更大的挑战。At the same time, even when the US had its greatest preponderance of power resources, it often failed to secure what it wanted. Those who argue that the disorder of today’s world is much worse than in the past should remember a year such as 1956, when the US was unable to prevent Soviet repression of a revolt in Hungary; or the Suez invasion by our allies Britain, France and Israel.与此同时,即便在美国拥有最大实力资源的时候,它往往也无法得到自己想要的东西。那些辩称当今世界的混乱远比过去严重的人别忘956年,当时美国无力阻止苏联镇压匈牙利的起义,也未能阻止我们的盟友英囀?法国和以色列入侵苏伊士运河。We must not view the past through rose-tinted glasses. Now, with slightly less preponderance and a much more complex world, the American century will continue for at least a few decades, but it will look very different from when Luce first articulated it.我们不能透过玫瑰色的眼镜看待过去。现在,随着美国优势略有下降以及世界变得更加复杂,美国世纪至少还会持续数十年时间,但它看上去将与当年卢斯宣告的那个美国世纪颇为不同。The writer is a professor at Harvard and author of ‘Is the American Century Over?’本文作者是美国哈佛大学(Harvard)教授,著有《美国世纪结束了吗?Is the American Century Over?)一书。来 /201504/367488。

Hundreds of Chinese companies have halted trading in their shares as Beijing struggles to insulate the economy from the country’s steepest equity decline in more than two decades.数中国企业已将自己的股票停牌。目前北京方面正竭尽全力隔离中国经济,使其不受0年来最剧烈的股市下滑的影响。Another 173 groups listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen announced trading suspensions after the market closed last night, bringing the total to about 940, or more than a third of all listed companies on the two exchanges.昨日又有173家在上海和深圳上市的集团在市场收盘后宣布停牌,使停牌的股票总数达到942只,占沪深股市所有上市公司的三分之一。In a further sign of unease about the Chinese market, commodities were hit hard, led by copper. The price of copper futures on the London Metal Exchange dropped to its lowest level since , falling 8.4 per cent in two days.突显人们对中国市场感到不安的另一个迹象是,大宗商品普遍遭受重创,其中铜价领跌。伦敦金属交易所(London Metal Exchange)期铜价格跌至年以来最低水平,在两天里下跌8.4%。Since hitting a seven-year high less than a month ago, stocks have suffered a precipitous decline sparked by a clampdown on margin finance the use of borrowed money to buy shares in response to worries about a bubble.自不到一个月前触年高点以来,中国股市急剧下跌,其触发因素是当局针对有关市场可能存在泡沫的担忧,采取措施控制保金融资,即利用借来的钱购买股票的行为。About tn has been wiped off the value of all listed companies as retail investors have rushed to unwind leveraged bets on the market.随着散户投资者竞相退出对股市的杠杆化押注,上市公司整体已蒸发了大万亿美元市值。The largest number of companies to suspend trading in their shares come from the tech-heavy ChiNext board in Shenzhen, which posted the biggest gains earlier this year and has since suffered the largest correction.停牌数量最多的是以科技股为主的深圳创业ChiNext),该市场在今年早些时候涨幅最大,最近的调整幅度也最大。Beijing has taken steps to keep stocks on China’s two main indices afloat, including direct purchases of large-cap companies, a halt to initial public offerings and a cut to trading fees. But so far its efforts have failed to staunch losses.北京方面已采取措施撑中国两个主要股指的成份股,包括直接购买大盘股、停止首次公开发行(IPO)以及降低交易费。但到目前为止,当局的努力未能止损。“There is a panic but no matter how they [the authorities] jump in, this thing just doesn’t stop falling,said Dong Tao, an economist at Credit Suisse.“目前市场存在一股恐慌情绪,但不管他们(当局)怎么干预,都挡不住市场下跌,”瑞Credit Suisse)经济学家陶冬表示。Chinese stocks fell for a fourth session in the past five yesterday. The Shanghai Composite shed 1.3 per cent, while the Shenzhen Composite lost 5.3 per cent.昨日中国股市在过去五个交易日第四次下跌。上综Shanghai Composite)下跌1.3%,深成Shenzhen Composite)下跌5.3%。The Shenzhen index is now up 36 per cent this year, having been up 122 per cent less than a month ago. The two indices have both dropped a third during the sell-off that began on June 12 in the country’s steepest decline since 1992, according to Bloomberg data.按目前水平衡量,深成指今年以来上涨36%,而不到一个月前的涨幅曾达22%。在始于62日的此轮跌势中,两个股指双双下跌三分之一;根据彭Bloomberg)的数据,这是中国股市992年以来最剧烈的下挫。Kevin Norrish, a commodities analyst at Barclays, said: “China is the largest consumer of copper. The growth outlook for China’s economy is uncertain. Added to this, a huge amount of money has gone into the Shanghai stock market, so as this market falls, there are worries this negative sentiment could feed back into the economy.”巴克莱(Barclays)大宗商品分析师凯#8226;诺里Kevin Norrish)表示:“中国是铜的最大消费国。目前中国经济增长前景是不确定的。再加上此前大量资金涌入上海股市,因此随着这一市场下跌,人们担心这种负面情绪可能反馈至经济。”Shares listed offshore have also been hit. Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks fell 3.3 per cent, erasing the year’s gains, while mainland groups with US listings lost the most since 2011 on Monday.境外上市的股票也受到了重创。在香港上市的中国内地股票下.3%,抹去了今年全部涨幅,而在美国上市的中资集团周一出现011年以来最大跌幅。The accelerating share suspensions, which have frozen .4tn worth of equity according to Bloomberg calculations, are the latest step by the corporate sector to help halt the decline.数量激增的股票停牌是企业部门帮助遏止股市跌势的最新举措。据彭计算,停牌已冻结了价.4万亿美元的股票。来 /201507/384980。

If the objective of a terror attack is to sow chaos, the Ankara bombing, which comes less than three weeks ahead of a bitterly contested snap election, appears to have done the job.如果恐怖袭击的目的是制造混乱,那么安卡拉爆炸案似乎已经达到了目的。这起爆炸案距土耳其提前举行的、紧张激烈的议会选举只有不到3周时间。A day after the deadliest attack of its kind in Turkey’s history with as many as 128 people claimed dead by opposition politicians though official figures remain at 95 outrage is growing amid claims of official negligence, the country’s politicians are at each othersthroats, a ceasefire between Kurdish insurgents and security forces appears to be dead in the water, and talk of a renewed civil war no longer appears to be premature.反对派政治人士称,这起爆炸案导致多达128人死亡,尽管官方的死亡数字仍5人。它是土耳其历史上遇难人数最多的一次恐怖袭击。惨案发生一天后,土耳其国内愤怒情绪不断高涨,人们纷纷指责政府官员失职,该国的政治人士正在互掐,库尔德反政府武装与土安全部队之间的停火似乎已经夭折,内战再起的传言似乎已不再是杞人忧天。Instead of bringing the country together, the bombing threatens to tear it further apart, analysts say.分析人士表示,这起爆炸案没能让土耳其团结起来,而是可能会让该国进一步分裂。With the Kurdish south consumed by violence, the economy rapidly decelerating, and with part of the electorate intent on seeing its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as a saviour, and the other seeing him as a corrupt autocrat, Turkey is aly badly, deeply divided. Any chance of that changing rapidly diminished over the weekend.由于库尔德控制的土耳其南部地区暴力活动不断,土经济迅速恶化。一些选民倾向于将土总统雷杰普吠伊普埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)视为救世主,另一些选民则将他视为腐败的独裁者。土耳其已是严重分裂,上周末发生的事情让短时间内改变这种局面的机会变得更加渺茫。said Sinan Ulgen of Carnegie Europe. “The degree of existing polarisation was so big that it prevented consensus.The attack is certain to “increase the uncertainty of election results,added analysts GlobalSource Partners in an emailed note.卡内基欧洲分Carnegie Europe)的锡南踠尔根(Sinan Ulgen)表示:“现有的分歧是如此严重,共识很难达成。”GlobalSource Partners的分析师在一份电邮报告中也表示,此次袭击肯定会“加大选举结果的不确定性。”In a statement published on Saturday, just hours after the Ankara bombing, the Kurdistan Workersparty (PKK) announced that it would cease armed hostilities against Turkish targets so as to calm tensions ahead of the November 1 parliamentary vote, unless it was attacked first. Clashes between the insurgents and security forces resumed in July and have since claimed hundreds of lives.在上周六——即在安卡拉爆炸案发生几小时后——发布的一则声明中,库尔德工人PKK)宣布,除非自己首先遭到攻击,否则将停止针对土耳其目标的武装敌对行动,以便1日的议会选举前缓和紧张局势。库尔德武装与土安全部队之间的冲突在7月重启,之后已导致数百人死亡。The PKK’s offer appears to have fallen on deaf ears. On Sunday, the Turkish army announced that it had bombed the group’s positions in southeastern Turkey and northern Iraq. The same day, two soldiers were reported killed in clashes with the PKK in Erzurum, in the country’s east.库尔德工人党的提议似乎未被理睬。上周日,土耳其军方宣布,它已轰炸了库尔德工人党位于土东南部以及伊拉克北部的阵地。同一天,据报道有两名土耳其士兵在该国东部埃尔祖鲁姆(Erzurum)与库尔德武装的冲突中丧生。The resumption of those clashes, which have claimed hundreds of lives since July, appears to play into the hands of the group believed to be responsible for the Ankara bombing, Islamic State. “Isis is the party that would benefit most from this action,said Haldun Solmazturk, a retired brigadier general in the Turkish army, referring to the attack and its aftermath.土国内冲突再起似乎对伊拉克与黎凡特伊斯兰ISIS)有利。ISIS据信应对安卡拉爆炸案负责。土军退役准将哈尔敦∠尔马兹蒂尔Haldun Solmazturk)在提到这起爆炸案及其后果时表示:“这次行动的最大受益者将是ISIS。”On the one hand, Mr Solmazturk says, the group appears to be forcing Turkey to think twice about further involvement in Syria. On the other, it is trying to distract the Kurds, its most formidable foes on the ground, by fanning the flames of its conflict with Turkey. By pitting one of its enemies against the other, says Mr Solmazturk, “it is killing two birds with one stone索尔马兹蒂尔克表示,一方面,ISIS似乎正迫使土耳其重新考虑对叙利亚的进一步干预;另一方面,该组织正通过加剧库尔德人与土耳其的冲突,来分散库尔德武装的注意力。库尔德武装是ISIS在地面战中最可怕的敌人。索尔马兹蒂尔克表示,通过让ISIS的敌人互相打斗,“该组织正一箭双雕”。Wolfango Piccoli, an analyst at Teneo Intelligence Whatever the result of the elections, the fallout from the Ankara attack will be hard to contain, especially as the fight between the PKK and the state threatens to spill over into sectarian conflict. “Whether this crisis will unfold in an outright disaster for the country’s political and economic stability,Wolfango Piccoli, an analyst at Teneo Intelligence,said, “is now a matter of when rather than if.”不管选举结果如何,安卡拉爆炸案的后果很难控制,特别是在库尔德工人党和土政府之间的斗争可能蔓延为教派冲突之际。Teneo Intelligence的分析师沃尔夫安戈皮科利(Wolfango Piccoli)表示:“说到这场危机会不会演变为该国政治经济稳定面临的一场严重灾难,现在看来这已不是一个会不会的问题,而是何时会的问题。”来 /201510/403313。