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Science and technology科学技术The genetics of politics 政治遗传学Body politic 人体政治Slowly, and in some quarters grudgingly, the influence of genes in shaping political outlook and behaviour is being recognized在某些方面,塑造政治前景和行为的基因影响正在慢慢地被人们所接受,虽然还是不情愿。IN 1882 W.S. Gilbert wrote, to a tune by Sir Arthur Sullivan, a ditty that went I often think its comical how Nature always does contrive/that every boy and every gal thats born into the world alive/is either a little Liberal or else a little Conservative.在1882年,W.S吉尔伯特写的一首小诗-是为阿瑟-沙利文爵士的一首曲子而作,我一直认为,大自然的精工雕作是那么可笑/每个出生到这个世界上,并存活下来的男孩和女孩们/不是有一点自由倾向,就是有一点保守。In the 19th century, that view, though humorously intended, would not have been out of place among respectable thinkers.在十九世纪,这个观点虽然有一点幽默的意味,但是在那些备受尊敬的思想家眼中,也并不是一无是处。The detail of a mans opinion might be changed by circumstances.一个人意见的详细观点可能会由于环境而改变。But the idea that much of his character was ingrained at birth held no terrors.但是,这种与生俱来的,由他的性格决定的观念也没什么恐怖的。It is not, however, a view that cut much ice in 20th-century social-scientific thinking, particularly after the second world war.然而,它在二十世纪的社会科学思想中没有占到一席之地,特别是二战之后。Those who allowed that it might have some value were generally shouted down and sometimes abused, along with all others vehemently suspected of the heresy of believing that genetic differences between individuals could have a role in shaping their behavioural differences.那些认为它有一些价值的人们发出的呐喊,通常会被持不同观点人们的声音所掩盖,有时还会遭到辱骂,和那些对当时的异端邪说----即个体之间的遗传差异在塑造他们各自不同的行为上起了一定的作用----有些猜测的人们一样受到不公平对待。Such thinking, a product compounded of Marxism and a principled rejection of the eugenics that had led, via Americas sterilisation programmes for the feeble minded, to the Nazi extermination camps, made life hard for those who wished to ask whether genes really do affect behaviour.这样的想法,与马克思主义融合后的产物,加上美国借口弱智而产生的绝育计划,这种优生学的原则性排斥反应直接导致了纳粹集中营的大屠杀,让那些想知道基因是不是对行为真的有影响的人们更加难以生存了。Now, however, the pendulum is swinging back.然而,现在,这个一直在变化的问题又摆到了人们面前。In the matter of both political outlook and political participation it is coming to be seen that genes matter quite a lot.就政治观点和政治参与而言,即将可以看出,基因确实起到了很大的作用。They are not the be-all and end-all.他们并不是最重要的。But, as a review of the field published in September in Trends in Genetics, by Peter Hatemi of Pennsylvania State University and Rose McDermott of Brown University, shows, they affect a persons views of the world almost as much as his circumstances do, and far more than many social scientists have been willing, until recently, to admit.但是,由美国宾夕法尼亚州立大学的彼德-哈特米和布朗大学的罗斯麦克德莫特合著的遗传学的发展趋势于今年九月出版,书中所持的遗传学观点认为,基因对人们世界观的影响几乎等同于环境的影响,而且,远远超过了许多社会科学家愿意承认的影响,直到最近他们才愿意接受这个结果。Family values 家庭价值The evidence for this claim comes from two types of source, one relatively old and one spanking new.这种说法的据有两种来源,一种比较古老,一种非常新颖。The old is studies of twins, comparing identical and non-identical pairs.古老的来自于对双胞胎的研究,以同卵双胞胎与异卵双胞胎进行对比研究。The new is a direct examination of peoples DNA, searching for genes whose variation correlates with observable behavioural differences.新颖的是对人类的DNA直接进行检查研究,探求基因变异与观察到的行为变异的关系。Twins studies, which seek to control for the effects of upbringing by comparing identical twins with fraternal ones, have been going on since the 1950s.双胞胎研究从二十世纪五十年代就开始了,主要是通过对同卵双胞胎和异卵双胞胎进行比较,寻求控制成长的影响基因。In that time, quite a number, in many countries, have looked in part at political questions.那时候,很多国家的大多数人,他们的注意力主要集中在政治问题上。Dr Hatemi and Dr McDermott pored over 89 peer-reviewed papers on the effects of genes and environment on political matters.哈特米士和麦克德莫特士认真钻研了,89名同行对于基因和环境对政治问题影响的文章。These included twins political knowledge, their attitudes to racial, sexual and religious questions, their views on defence and foreign policy, and their identification with particular political parties.这些报道包括了双生子的政治知识,他们在种族,性别和宗教问题上的态度,他们对国防和外交政策的看法,还有他们对特别党派的认同感。On all counts, identical twins were found to be more alike than fraternal twins.通过这些项目的研究,发现同卵双胞胎比异卵双胞胎更相像。That knowledge, refracted through the prism of statistical theory, allows calculations of the proportionate influences of genes, family environment and general environment on particular traits to be made.通过统计理论分析得到的结果,可以推算出基因、家庭环境和外部环境对特别性状的相应比例的影响。Some show strong genetic influence.其中,一些结果表明受到了很强的基因影响,Some show little.而有一些几乎不受基因影响。Intriguingly, political knowledge and party identification are at opposite ends of the spectrum.有趣的是,政治知识和党派认同分别处于研究结果的两端。As the chart shows knowledge is highly genetically determined. Identification with a particular political party, by contrast, is largely a question of family upbringing—much more so than are opinions about the sorts of policy that it might be thought would determine voting patterns.就像上表揭示的,政治知识受到基因的影响最大。相反,对特别政治党派的认同主要是家庭教育的问题,而对于各种政策的意见,家庭教育对这个的影响远远不如对前者的影响。But even family ties weaken when people leave home—and they do so in a way that helps disentangle genetic influence.但是当人们离开家,家庭联系甚至日益减弱时,这样在某种程度上就把研究的方向聚集到了基因的影响上。Dr Hatemi showed this in when, along with a group of colleagues, he looked at twins aged between 11 and 75.哈特米士在年-当时他与他的同仁们一起工作,对11岁到75岁的双生子进行了研究-公布了这个研究结果。His results demonstrated that until their late teens both kinds of twins had equally similar political views.他的研究结果说明了,直到这些双生子十几岁时,他们的政治看法都很相似。Soon after they flew the nest, though, as might be expected, their views began to diverge.但是,可能就像预测的一样,在他们离巢后不久,这些双生子之间的看法就开始有分歧。And, just as would be expected if genes have political influence, the views of fraternal twins diverged more than did those of identical ones.而且,就像预计的,如果基因有政治影响力的话,那么异卵双胞胎的意见分歧将会比那些同卵双胞胎更加严重。Between the ages of 18 and 20 identical and fraternal twins both shared nearly 70% of their political ideology.18到20岁的同卵和异卵双胞胎的政治思想近70%都相同。Between the ages of 21 and 25, that had shrunk to 60% for identical twins and 40% for fraternal twins. Clearly, then, genes matter.21到25岁,同卵双胞胎的这个数值减小到了60%,而异卵双胞胎只有40%。那很明显,基因影响。Nor do they merely affect a persons opinions.基因不仅仅影响一个人的意见。They also affect his level of political engagement.它们也影响人的政治参与水平。This was shown in a study published in 2008 by James Fowler of the University of California, San Diego.2008年公布的一项研究-研究者是位于圣地亚哥的美国加州大学的詹姆斯福勒揭示了这点。Dr Fowler and his team analysed the voter-registration records of identical and fraternal twins from Los Angeles, and also from a more nationally representative database.福勒士和他的团队分析了洛杉矶市的同卵和异卵双胞胎的选民登记记录,也对更多有代表性的国家数据库的数据进行了分析。They found that identical twins are 53% more likely either both to register or both not to register than are fraternal twins.他们发现,在登记或者不登记这点上,53%的同卵双胞胎的选择可能相同,远远高于异卵双胞胎。Political signals 政治信号Twins studies like these unequivocally demonstrate the heritability of politically related behaviour.像这样的双胞胎研究明确地实了有关政治行为的遗传性。What they do not do, though, is explain the underlying biology.虽然他们不这样做解释了基本生物学原理。That is an area which is only now starting to be explored.这是一个现在刚刚开始进行探索的领域。In 2010 a study published by Dr Fowler and his colleagues implicated a gene known asDRD4 in the development of political affiliation.2010年,福勒士和他的同事公布的一项研究暗示,被称为多巴胺D4受体基因是政治立场发展过程的关键因素。DRD4 encodes a receptor molecule for a neurotransmitter called dopamine.DRD4对一种称为多巴胺的神经传递素的受体分子进行了编码。Those with a variant of DRD4 called 7R, and also a large network of friends acquired during their adolescence, tended to be liberals—ie, left wing.那些带有称为7R的DRD4的变异体,在他们青春期也需要一个朋友圈的人,往往会成为自由派,即左翼。One interesting point about this observation is that it requires both a genetic input and an environmental one to take effect.这次观察的一个有趣的地方是,政治背景的形成需要一种遗传性输入,也需要环境输入才能产生影响。DRD4-7R has previously been associated with novelty-seeking behaviour.长外以来,DRD4-7R一直与寻求新颖的行为有所关联。The authors of the paper speculate that the interaction of that tendency with possible exposure to lots of different ideas held by lots of different people might push an individual in a leftwardly direction.本文作者猜测,许多不同持不同观念的人可能会相互接触,而他们之间的相互影响可能会让他们成为左翼阵营。Following up on Dr Fowlers work, research published earlier this year by a team led by Dr Hatemi found a further 11 genes, different varieties of which might be responsible for inclining people towards liberalism or conservatism in the way that Gilbert described.今年初,在福勒士研究的基础上,哈特米士领导的团队公布了他们的继续研究成果。他们发现,还有11个各不相同的基因,它们可能影响了人们对自由派或者保守派的倾向,而这却是吉尔伯特在那首小诗中描述到的。These included genes involved in the regulation of three neurotransmitters—dopamine, glutamate and serotonin—and also G-protein-coupled receptors, which react to a wide variety of stimulants.这些基因包括了参与调节三种神经传递素-多巴安,谷氨酸和5-羟色胺-的基因,它们也参与调节G-蛋白偶联受体。Most astonishingly, the researchers found that olfactory receptors are also implicated, giving a whole, new twist to the idea that someones political platform smells wrong.最令人惊讶的是,研究者发现,嗅觉受体也牵连其中,提出了一个新的,整体颠覆性的观念,即人的政治纲领闻起来是错误的。The word inclining is important.这个倾向要注意。No one is suggesting that there are particular genes, or versions of genes for liberalism or conservatism. But inclinations there do seem to be.没有人认为,有什么特别基因,或者说带有自由主义或者保守主义基因的这种说法。Moreover, direct studies of genes also support what the twins studies suggest about political engagement, independent of opinion.但是,这种倾向又似乎存在。而且,对基因的直接研究也持双胞胎研究上有关政治参与、独立意见的结果。In particular, work by Dr Fowler implicates another dopamine receptor, DRD2, and also 5HTT, which regulates serotonin levels, in influencing voter turnout.特别是,福勒士的研究暗示了另一种多巴胺受体-多巴胺D2受体,还有五羟色胺转运基因-功能是调节血清素水平,这些基因都影响到选民的投票率。People with versions of these genes that increase the effect of the neurotransmitter are more likely to vote than those with low-activity versions.拥有这些增加神经传递素效力的基因变体的人,他们比那些拥有相同基因,但活性较低的人更有可能参加选举投票。The will and the way 愿望和方式The third part of the question, though, is how this all links up with the fundamental driver of biology, evolution.这个问题的第三部分则是分析这些是怎样和生物学的基本驱动力-进化连接起来的。The suggestion of Dr Hatemi and Dr McDermott is that political action is the collective expression of some pretty primal biological motives: those of survival and procreation.哈特米士和德默特士认为,政治行为是一些很原始的生物性动机的集中表达:那些生存和繁衍的原始生物动机。Deciding whether or not to be part of a particular group, whom else to admit to your group, how to keep or share resources, and how much sexual freedom to afford oneself, ones neighbours and ones children are all, and always have been, lively matters of political debate.确定是不是一个特别团体的一部分,其他人是不是承认你这个团体,怎样保存或者共享资源,自己可以承担多少的性自由,一个人的邻居和孩子,这些都是原始的生物性动机,还有政治辩论一直以来的热闹事项等。But they are also all matters that have an impact on the crucial Darwinian business of getting genes into the next generation.但是它们也对达尔文重要理论--提取基因以塑造优秀下一代的研究-有一定影响。Dr Hatemi and Dr McDermott are not suggesting genetic factors directly create ideologies that relate to these matters.哈特米和麦克德莫特士都不相信,基因因素直接导致了与这些事务相关的思想意识。They are suggesting, though, that genes assist in deciding which opinions an individual will find it most attractive to cleave to.但是,他们认为,基因对决定个人发现并坚持他认为的更有吸引力的意见有一定的辅助作用。Unlike the social determinists of old, however, who frequently refused to concede even the possibility of genetic influence on behaviour, the new generation of genetic political scientists are perfectly happy to acknowledge nurture along with nature.然而,并不像过去的社会决定论-这种理论甚至一直拒绝承认基因对行为影响的可能性,新一代的遗传学的政治科学家们乐于接受先天和后天的共同作用。Dr Hatemis own work, for instance, has shown that external shocks, such as unemployment and divorce, effectively abolish the genetic influences he has detected on many ideological questions as other responses, more appropriate to survival in the changed circumstances, kick in.比如,当其它更适合在变化成千的环境下成立的理论出现时,哈特米士自己的研究展示了外部冲击的影响,比如,失业和离婚,有效地抵消了他在许多意识形态问题上检测到的基因影响。These responses too, of course, are probably under evolutionary—and hence genetic—control. But they are different from the ones being looked for at present.当然,这些理论的出现也可能受到进化论的影响。但是它们和目前的研究是截然不同的。That sort of granularity, and the need to accept partial rather than universal explanations for biological phenomena, led the two researchers to one other thought.这种间隔差距,及为了接受部分而不是普遍的生物现象解释的需要,让两位研究者又产生另一个想法。This is that part of the problem social science has had in the past in accepting biological explanations is that its practitioners do not understand the nature of the claims being made.即在过去已经被接受的生物现象解释的社会科学的部分问题是,从事这门科学的人员不明白这种理论的本质。There are, to repeat, no genes for socialism or conservatism, or for prejudice or tolerance, any more than there are genes for Christianity or Islam.再次重申一遍,没有什么社会主义基因或者保守主义基因,或者偏见或容忍基因,更不用说还存在基督教或者伊斯兰教基因。But a persons genes can sometimes propel him more easily in one direction than another.但是一个人的基因有时会驱使他更容易走上另一条道路。His free will is, if you like, a little freer to turn right than left, or vice versa.换句话说,他的自由意愿可能会更倾向于偏右,而不是偏左,反之亦然。Gilbert was therefore not quite right. But he was not exactly wrong, either.因此,吉尔伯特并不完全正确。但是他也没有完全错。 /201401/273114

Now hold on your pants.惊喜还在后头呢This is the most expensive gift.价格最逆天的礼物闪亮登场了This is 1.85 million dollars.这件大礼价值一百八十五万大刀It is forevermark Ultimate Diamond Collection.它是永恒印记的钻石系列Take a look at this.睁大眼看看This is a... I guess its a whole bunch of diamonds.这就是 一大堆钻石啊They say diamonds are forever人们常说钻石很久远which is how long its gonna take to pay off your credit card.同时也意味着卡债还到很久远If youre looking for something slightly more affordable.如果你在寻觅价格稍微亲民一点的This only cost 1.5 million dollars.这价值一百五十万刀This is a 201-inch outdoor television.这是201寸的户外大电视Tts called the His and Hers Ultimate Outdoor Entainment System.名叫男女户外终极影音系统I would buy it, Im gonna wait for the Hers and Hers.我是会买的 不过要等厂家出个女女版的But Im gonna buy this.这电视我买定了I hope it helps with your shopping.希望以上介绍能对你们购物有所帮助Uh...you know, it probably didnt.额 应该是帮不到的啦So,hey, remember when it comes to buying gifts,有一点请大家一定要记住了its not about the money that you spent ,its the thought that you put into it.买礼物价格不是最重要的 关键是用心But,hey,Portia if youre watching,portia如果你在看节目的话 请听着I like the diamonds, those are nice.我超爱钻石的 钻石美呆了Its fun to give gifts,its fun to get gifts.送礼乐趣十足 收礼也是嗨翻天And I thought what better way to start the Christmas season than...我在想还有什么比送礼为圣诞节开场更好呢becuase I like you aly.我可喜欢你们了I can tell, I aly like you我点我清楚 你们真是深得我心Hold on. Hold on.淡定 淡定I didnt get you the diamonds, dont think youre getting the diamonds.我又不是要送你们钻石 想都甭想But I do want all of you to come back for 12 days of Giveways.不过我诚邀大家在12日礼物大派送的时候再次来到现场注:EllenShow中英字幕来源于:艾伦秀字幕组 /201311/266449

Microblogs微Big Vs and bottom lines大V和底线Authorities move against some of China’s most vocal microbloggers政府对中国最直言不讳的微用户采取行动Aug 31st 2013 | BEIJING |From the print editionBETWEEN August 20th and 23rd Beijing police arrested several microbloggers on a charge normally reserved for rabble-rousers on the streets: that of “creating a disturbance”. They were nabbed, police claim, for sping false rumours. Earlier in the month two influential microblogging activists were also arrested in east-central China. Each had accused officials of wrongdoing. An online crackdown is under way on those who do not follow the Communist Party’s line.8月20日至23日,北京警方已煽动民众(制造混乱)为名逮捕了几个微用户。警方声称他们被捕的原因是散播谣言。这个月早些时候,中国中东部两个有影响力的微活跃用户也被逮捕。他们都曾指控政府官员违法。一场网络行动正在打击不与共产党统一战线的人。Yet those arrested are small fry. Of greater concern to authorities are the so-called “Big Vs”, popular microbloggers on Sina Weibo and Tencent Weibo, the two leading microblogs, who have been verified not to be writing under a pseudonym (and so have a V beside their name). Many Big Vs have millions of followers and some write provocatively about sensitive social and political issues. On August 23rd Beijing police detained one Big V, Charles Xue, and later accused him of holding group sex parties with prostitutes. Mr Xue, who is a naturalised American, is a wealthy businessman with 12m followers.这些被捕的还只是小人物。政府最担心的是所谓的大V,大V是指新浪微和腾讯微上通过实名认(名字后面有个V)并且广受欢迎的用户。许多大V有数百万粉丝,并且对敏感的社会政治问题发表激烈言论。8月23日,北京警方拘留了名人薛蛮子,随后指控其聚众淫乱。薛蛮子是美籍华人,一个拥有1200万粉丝的富商。Many assume that Mr Xue’s arrest is a message to the rest of the Big Vs, including holders of foreign passports, that no one is too big to be touched. They hardly needed warning. The authorities have by turns been courting and intimidating the Big Vs in their efforts to control the virtual public square. Arresting or silencing the biggest ones comes with risks for the government, because of the stir it would cause: Kai-Fu Lee, a Taiwanese tech celebrity living in China, has more than 50m followers on Sina Weibo. On the other hand, many microbloggers with foreign passports have good cause to be compliant. They often have business interests and Chinese family members to protect.许多人认为薛蛮子被捕时政府向包括拥有外国签的其他大V发出的讯息,没有人不被管制。他们甚至都不需要警告。政府通过拉拢和威胁大V试图控制虚拟公共场所。但是如果拘留或者封杀这些大V的话,政府面临风险,因为这样做可能会引起强烈的社会反响。例如居住在中国的台湾籍科技名人李开复在新浪微上有超过5000万粉丝。另一方面,许多拥有外籍的微用户有理由顺从,因为他们要维护自己的商业利益,保护自己在中国的家庭。On August 10th Mr Xue and more than a dozen other Big Vs attended a forum, portions of which were later shown on state television, to promote social responsibility among microbloggers. Lu Wei, chief of the State Internet Information Office, declared that microbloggers with large followings had a particular responsibility to tell the truth, protect state interests and social order, and uphold the law and “socialist” ideals and morals. The Big Vs publicly affirmed the wisdom of these strictures, known as the “seven bottom lines”. One Big V, Pan Shiyi, a property developer with 16m followers, posted a short in which he compared the seven bottom lines to traffic rules, suggesting they are reasonable and should be obeyed.八月十日薛蛮子和其他十几位微名人参加了一个促进微用户社会责任感的论坛,部分内容随后在央视播出。国际互联网信息办公室主任鲁炜表示,拥有大量粉丝的微用户有义务讲真话,维护国家利益和社会秩序,并且拥护法律和社会主义意识形态和道德准则。大V公开肯定了被称为七条底线的一系列约束的必要性。其中一个大V潘石屹是一个房地产开发商,拥有1600万粉丝,他发了一天短视频,视频中他将七条底线与交通规则相比较,说明其合理性并应该遵守。Authorities have since made clear that microbloggers who break the strictures can be treated just as if they were causing a real-world ruckus. On August 21st Legal Evening News reported that Beijing police now consider the online world as much a public space as the real one. It was a “judicial breakthrough” that appears to be the legal basis for some recent detentions.政府对待违背这些准则的微用户态度很清楚,就像对待现实生活中骚乱分子一样。8月21日,法制晚报报道称北京警方现在已经将网络世界看作现实生活中的公共空间。这看起来是为最近一系列拘留行动提供了法律依据,是一项“司法突破”。Zhang Qianfan, a professor of law at Peking University, recently wrote a critique of this legal approach, suggesting that order cannot be maintained on the internet, nor should it be. By nature, he wrote, the internet is a noisy place. “The government should step aside. Once it interferes with the internet, we will soon find it becomes the biggest rumour-monger.”北京大学法学教授张千帆最近就这些法律措施发表了,指出网络秩序不能维护也不应该维护。他写道,网络本质上是一个言论聚集之地。“政府应该靠边站。一旦政府干涉网络,很快我们就会发现最大的造谣者就是政府。”201309/255127E-commerce电子商务Tencent’s worth腾讯的价值A Chinese internet firm finds a better way to make money一家中国互联网公司找到了更好的赚钱方式Sep 21st 2013 | SHANGHAI |From the print editionIS TENCENT one of the world’s greatest internet firms? There are grounds for scepticism. The Chinese gaming and social-media firm started in the same way many local internet firms have: by copying Western success. QQ, its instant-messaging service, was a clone of ICQ, an Israeli invention acquired by AOL of America. And unlike global internet giants such as Google and Twitter, Tencent still makes its money in its protected home market.腾讯是世界上最大的互联网公司之一吗?有持怀疑态度的理由。这个中国游戏和社交媒体公司跟许多本土互联网公司一样以同样的方式起步:通过抄袭西方的成功模式。腾讯的即时通讯务QQ是一家被美国AOL收购的以色列发明的ICQ的翻版。而区别于谷歌和twitter等全球互联网巨头,腾讯仍然只在受保护的本土市场圈钱。Yet the Chinese firm’s stockmarket valuation briefly crossed the 0 billion mark this week for the first time. Given that the valuation of Facebook, the world’s leading social-media firm, itself crossed that threshold only a few weeks ago, it is reasonable to wonder whether Tencent is worth so much. However, Tencent now has bigger revenues and profits than Facebook. In the first half of this year Tencent enjoyed revenues of .5 billion and gross profits of .5 billion, whereas Facebook saw revenues of .3 billion and gross profits of 5m.然而,这家中国公司的股市估值这周首次超过了1000亿美元大关。鉴于全球领先的社交媒体公司facebook的估值只在几周之前才跨过这道门槛,所以换衣腾讯的市值是有道理的。然而,腾讯现在的收入和利润都比facebook多。今年前半年腾讯营收达到45亿美元,而总利润达到25亿美元,而facebook营收只有33亿美元,总利润只有9.35亿美元。The Chinese firm’s market value reflects the phenomenal rise in its share price. A study out this week from the Boston Consulting Group found that Tencent had the highest shareholder total return (share-price appreciation plus dividends) of any large firm globally from 2008 to 2012—topping Amazon and even Apple.这家中国公司的市场价值反映在其股价的惊人崛起上。这周波士顿咨询集团的一项研究发现,自2008年到2012年,在全球所有大公司中,腾讯拥有最高的股东总回报(股价升值加上分红),超过了亚马逊甚至苹果。Tencent has created a better business model than its Western peers. Many internet firms build a customer base by giving things away, be they search results or social-networking tools. They then seek to monetise their users, usually turning to online advertising. Google is a glorious example. Other firms try to make e-commerce work. But as the case of revenue-rich but profit-poor Amazon suggests, this can also be a hard slog.腾讯比起西方同行创造了一个更好的商业模式。许多互联网公司基于送给人们东西作为搜索结果或者社交工具来让其成为消费者。他们接着寻求在他们用户身上套现,通常是提供在线广告。谷歌就是一个光辉典范。其他公司尝试电子商务活动。但是收入丰富但是利润甚微的亚马逊表明这也是一条艰难的路。Tencent does give its services away: QQ is used by 800m people, and its WeChat social-networking app (which initially resembled America’s WhatsApp) has several hundred million users. What makes it different from Western rivals is the way it uses these to peddle online games and other revenue-raising offerings.腾讯也给用户提供务,有8亿人使用QQ,其微信社交应用(最初类似于Whatsapp)有几百万用户。其区别于西方对手的招数在于使用这些工具兜售在线游戏以及其他增加收入的务。Once users are hooked on a popular game, Tencent then persuades them to pay for “value-added services” such as fancy weapons, snazzy costumes for their avatars and online VIP rooms. Whereas its peers are still making most of their money from advertising, Fathom China, a research firm, reckons Tencent gets 80% of its revenues from such kit (see chart).一旦用户迷上一个受欢迎的游戏,腾讯就会劝说他们为增值务付钱,比如更花哨的武器,他们卡通形象时髦的衣还有在线VIP房间。鉴于其通航扔人通过广告赚钱,一家调查公司Fathom China认为腾讯通过上述工具的收益占到总收益的80%。This year China has overtaken America to become the world’s biggest e-commerce market, in terms of sales. It is also now the biggest market for smartphones. This means it may soon have the world’s dominant market in “m-commerce”, purchases on mobile devices.今年中国超过美国成为世界上销售额最大的电子商务市场。现在中国也是世界上最大的智能手机市场。这意味着中国可能很快成为世界上移动付市场的主导市场。Tencent’s main rivals in Chinese m-commerce are Baidu, which dominates search on desktop computers (helped by the government’s suppression of Google) and Alibaba, an e-commerce giant now preparing for a huge share offering. All three have gone on acquisition sprees, in an attempt to lead the market. The big worry for investors is the cost of this arms race.腾讯在中国移动付市场的最大对手是百度,主导了桌面电脑搜索市场(受益于中国政府对谷歌的镇压),还有阿里巴巴,现在准备上市的电商巨头。这三个公司正在进行疯狂收购,试图主导市场。投资者最大的担忧就是这场军备竞赛的成本。Alibaba recently invested 0m in AutoNavi, an online-mapping firm, and nearly 0m in Sina Weibo, China’s equivalent of Twitter. Baidu has been even more ambitious, spending .85 billion to buy 91 Wireless, the country’s biggest third-party store for smartphone apps, and 0m for PPS, an online- firm.阿里巴巴最近向高德地图投资3亿美元,向新浪微投资6亿美元。百度更有野心,花费18.5亿美元购买了中国最大的第三方智能手机软件商店91无线,同时花费3.7亿美元购买了在线视频公司PPS。Tencent may have an edge over its two rivals in m-commerce because of the wild popularity of WeChat, which is used on mobile phones. But to ensure it stays in the race, it is also spending heavily. On September 16th it said it will spend 8m to acquire a big stake in Sogou, an online-search firm; it plans to merge its own flagging search engine (aptly named Soso) into the venture. It had previously invested in Didi Dache, China’s largest taxi-hailing app, and is rumoured to be interested in online travel and dating firms too.腾讯在移动付方面比起它的两个竞争对手可能有优势,由于微信在智能手机上的流行。但是为了保其留在竞争中,腾讯也花费重金。9月16日,腾讯表示它将花费4.48亿美元购买在线搜索公司搜一大笔股份,计划将其萎靡不振的搜索引擎搜搜合并到合资企业中。此前,腾讯投资中国最大的打车应用滴滴打车,传言对在线旅游和约会公司也有兴趣。The three Goliaths are buying up innovative firms because they are too big and bureaucratic to create things themselves, mutter some entrepreneurs (presumably not those being bought out handsomely). A more pressing worry for Tencent’s shareholders is that its lavish spending, on top of heavy investment in improving its unimpressive e-commerce offerings, will eat into profits. Worse, the m-commerce arms race risks distracting it from gaming and value-added services, the cash cows that are paying for everything else. A 0 billion valuation might then seem too rich.一些企业家说到,这三个巨头购买创新型企业因为他们太大太官僚,很难自己创造事物。大概不是出资那些被收购的公司之口。腾讯股东更担心的是公司花费大量资金,投资改善其不起眼的电子商务产品会侵吞利润。更糟糕的是,移动付市场的军备竞赛风险分散了其在游戏和增值务商的注意力,公司正在投资其他东西。1000亿美元的估值可能太高了。 /201309/257971

German politics德国政治The Alternatives astonishing ascent新选项党的崛起As the large centrist parties become more alike, the radical fringe gets stronger大部分中立派议员趋同,激进派边缘增强SINCE reunification in 1990, Saxony has been the former East Germanys biggest success story. As one of Germanys 16 federal states since then, it has been governed continuously by the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU). Its education system is considered Germanys best. Its economy is thriving, with world-class regional clusters in high-tech and carmaking. So there was never any question that Stanislaw Tillich, the states understated and popular CDU premier, would stay in power after Saxonys election on August 31st. His party won more votes than the three leftist parties combined. With 39.4% of votes, Mr Tillich claimed victory.自从1990年德国重新统一以后,萨克森州已经变成了前东德地区最成功的故事。自那时开始,作为联邦十六州之一的萨克森一直处在中右派的基督民主党统治之下。它的教育制度被认为是德国最好的,高科技与汽车制造业的地域集聚也使得它的经济情况日趋繁荣。毋庸置疑,低调行事且广受赞誉的基民党州长斯塔尼斯拉夫·提里希将在8月31日的大选后继续执政。基民党获得了超过三个左翼政党联盟的持率,34.9%的得票率宣告了提里希的胜利。And yet that result was the CDUs worst ever in Saxony, causing worries as the party approaches elections on September 14th in Thuringia and Brandenburg, also in former East Germany. The left-leaning Social Democrats (SPD) and ecology-minded Greens have reason to fret, too. They all did worse than they had hoped, largely because they lost votes to a populist party to the right of the CDU: the Alternative for Germany, led by Frauke Petry.但这是基民党在萨克森选举历史上最糟糕的结果,导致了他们对同样归属前东德地区的图林根州与勃兰登堡在9月14日政党换届大选的担忧。而左翼党派德国社会民主党与生态主义绿党也有同样的烦恼。他们比预期中做的更糟,很大程度上因为他们票选输给了一个比基民党作风更为保守的民粹新政党—由弗劳克·佩特里领导的新选项党。Founded last year, the Alternative began with only one policy: a call for the orderly unravelling of the euro as a currency zone. To this it has since added other conservative positions, such as opposition to public deficits and gay marriage. In some ways it resembles Americas Tea Party. In Saxony, where it is strongest, it has increasingly emphasised tougher controls on immigration and border crime, often with xenophobic innuendo.去年开始,新选项党遵循的唯一政策:呼吁有序解散欧元经济区。为此,党内开始增加其他保守立场,例如反对财政赤字与同性婚姻。在某种程度上它类似美国的茶党。在新选项党势力最强的萨克森州,它加强了对外来移民与边境犯罪的严格管控,并经常伴有排外情绪。Though still chaotic in its party organisation and evolving in its views—for example, the party is squabbling over whether to criticise Vladimir Putin or coddle him—the Alternative has been rising stunningly fast. It came close to entering the federal parliament last September and succeeded in entering the European one in May. With 9.7% of the vote in Saxony, it now enters its first state parliament. It hopes to do so in Thuringia and Brandenburg, too.即使政党内部观点开展的混乱不堪——比如为了要批评还是要优待普京而争吵——新选项党的依然在迅速成长。在去年九月它尝试进入联邦议院,并在五月份成功进入欧盟接替了一个席位。凭借在萨克森州9.7%的持率,它首次进入州议院并希望在图林根州与勃兰登堡市也能取得同样的结果。The new partys success is causing upheaval in the German political landscape, accelerating the implosion of its only liberal party, the Free Democrats (FDP). With just 3.8% of votes in Saxony, the FDP failed to clear the 5% threshold to enter parliament and was ejected, as it has been from seven other state parliaments since 2011 and the Bundestag last year. For the first time since 1946, the FDP does not participate in any state or federal government. This eliminates the liberals as the CDUs coalition partner, perhaps permanently.新政党的成功引起了德国政坛格局的转变,也加速了德国唯一一个自由党派—自由民主党的分裂。自2011年起它已经相继被其他7个州议院与去年的联邦议会大选“除名”,而今年萨克森选举中,3.8%的得票率让自民党又一次在议院5%持率的门槛前止步。这也是自1946年以来自民党首次未能进入任何州立或联邦政府,这种情况对于基民党的盟友—自民党的消除也许是永久性的。A more positive side-effect of the Alternatives ascent is its cannibalisation of the NPD, a neo-Nazi party.About 13,000 of its voters migrated to the Alternative, causing the NPD to fall 809 votes short of re-entering the Saxon parliament. After that loss, it has seats in only one other state and could fade away, with or without a ban.新选项党的成长带来的积极作用是与民粹政党—德国国家民主党的同类相残。约有1.3万名该党的持者转向了新选项党,缺少809个持票也直接导致了民主党无法重回议会。失败以后,无论同类相残是否被禁止,它在另一个州保留的仅有席位也可能消失。The CDU so far refuses to contemplate a coalition with the Alternative. Led nationally by the chancellor, Angela Merkel, the CDU is pro-European and pro-euro, and so moderate as to be increasingly indistinguishable to many voters from the SPD, with which it governs in a “grand coalition” in the Bundestag. On September 1st Mrs Merkel, Mr Tillich and the CDU leaders in Thuringia and Brandenburg said again that discussions with the Alternative are taboo. Mr Tillich will try to form a coalition with the SPD or the Greens.基民党至今拒绝考虑与新选项党联盟。在德国总理默克尔领导下的基民党是亲欧盟亲欧元的,如此温和的作风让人们越来越难以区分基民党与社民党,同时基民党还在西德联邦议会中掌管着大联盟。9月1日,默克尔、提里希和基民党其他领导人在图林根州与勃兰登堡市再一次表示,与新选项党讨论是被禁止的。提里希将会尝试与社民党或绿党建立联盟。Ignoring the Alternative will not remove it as a problem for the CDU. In effect, the Alternative has in one year become on the far right what The Left is on the left. Descended from East Germanys Communist Party and unreconciled to Germanys capitalist system and its Western alliances, The Left remains strong in the eastern states. In Saxony it came in second with 18.9% of the vote. The comparatively moderate SPD has so far ruled out The Left as a partner in the Bundestag. But their competition splits the left vote and often leads to unproductive ideological bidding wars.基民党的联盟问题不会因为忽视新选项党而解决。事实上,新选项党已经在一年以内成为了极右派,如同左派党是左翼倾向。起源于东德共产党的新选项党,虽然没有与德国资本主义系统以及西部联盟达成一致,但在东部各州实力依然强大。它在萨克森州公投中以18.9%的持率位居第二。相对温和的社民党已经排除了基民党在西联邦议院的左党伙伴。但是他们的竞争使得左派选票分裂,并且经常带来无意义的竞投战。The Alternative will increasingly play the same role on the right vis-a-vis the CDU. On September 1st, Mrs Merkel suggested that, short of negotiating with the Alternative, the CDU must begin dealing with the concerns, rational or not, of its supporters. These range from fears about crime in the regions along the borders with the Czech Republic and Poland, to hysteria about “welfare tourism” by foreigners. The Alternative will be at its shrillest and strongest every time the euro crisis returns to the headlines. This will restrict Mrs Merkels leeway to agree to new rescue packages, or even to ease her austerity drive.新选项党将逐渐与基民党扮演同样重要的角色。九月一日,默克尔建议,由于缺少与新选项党磋商,基民党必须开始解决来自它的持者们关心的问题,无论问题合理与否。持者们关心的范围从对捷克和波兰接壤的边境地区犯罪的担忧,到对外国人“公益旅行”的歇斯底里。新选项党在欧元危机重回一线的每时每刻都表现出尖利强硬的一面。这将限制默克尔的回旋余地,被迫同意新计划,甚至缓和她的紧缩计划 /201409/327426

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