明星资讯腾讯娱乐2019年08月20日 11:04:24
Football transfers足球转会Reassuringly expensive天价The financial gulf between English clubs and the rest of Europe is growing英国足球俱乐部与欧洲其他俱乐部财力差距正在拉大。Sep 7th 2013 |From the print editionFOOTBALL’S transfer window may almost be viewed as a sport in its own right. Twice a year, in January and for two months during the summer, European clubs frantically buy and sell players. When the window slams shut, as it did on September 2nd, they are stuck with the squads they have assembled until the next one opens. Meanwhile, pundits pore over the transfer-market winners and losers, much as they would a weekend’s fixtures.球员转会窗口的竞争都可以当作一项运动了。欧洲各俱乐部在每年的一月和夏季的两个月疯狂的买卖球员。当转会窗口关闭后,这次关闭是在9月2号,球队就定型了,只能等下次窗口再度开放才能重组。与此同时,专家们则研究转会市场的胜败双方,跟看周末球赛一样热情。This summer English Premier League (EPL) clubs did record business. According to Deloitte, a professional-services firm, they spent a combined P 630m (dollars 985m) on new players. This is a new record, and far outstrips spending in other countries. The window’s most eye-catching deal, though, involved a player leaving England’s shores. The protracted pursuit of Gareth Bale, a Tottenham Hotspur forward, by Real Madrid, a Spanish club, ended only when the clubs agreed on a world-record P 85m fee.今年夏天英超的球队做了破纪录的交易。根据德勤公司的统计数据,英超球队总共在新球员身上花费了6.3亿英镑,也就是9.85亿美元。这是一项新记录,远远将其他国家甩在身后。最引人注意的交易是一项英格兰本土与外国的交易。西班牙的皇家马德里俱乐部在追随了托特纳姆热刺的前锋贝尔之后,终于达成了一项破世界纪录的8500万英镑的交易。Still, England remains football’s financial powerhouse. Net transfer spending by the EPL—the amount, after deals between English clubs has been stripped out, which flowed abroad—was P 370m. This compares with P 130m in France’s Ligue 1 and a P 95m surplus in Spain’s La Liga.目前,英格兰仍然是足球界的金融中心。英超球员转会开达到了3.7亿英镑,这仅仅是刨除国内交易后的国际交易。相比之下,法甲的转会费是1.3亿英镑,西甲的转会费只有9500亿英镑。The main reason for EPL’s continued clout is a huge new television deal shared between British Telecom and BSkyB, which will run for the next three seasons. That will be worth an extra P 500m to the EPL this year, with each club on average P 25m better off. In 2011-12, the last season for which accounts are available, broadcasting accounted for half of the clubs’ combined P 2.4 billion revenue. The remainder was split between match-day revenue—mostly gate receipts—and commercial activities, such as sponsorship and merchandising. Deloitte estimates that, for the coming season, the clubs’ revenue will increase to P 3.1 billion, with the proportion coming from broadcasting rising to 55%.英超大力引援的主要原因是英国电信公司与英国天空广播公司已经达成了新的巨额电视转播合同,签下了未来三个赛季的转播。预计这将会给英超带来5亿英镑的盈利,每个俱乐部平均获利2500万英镑。上赛季数据显示,广播节目带来的收入占总盈利24亿英镑的一半。另一半收入来自比赛日收入,主要是门票收入,以及商业活动,例如赞助和广告。德勤预计接下来的赛季,英超盈利将会随着广播节目所占比例55%的提升而达到31亿英镑。Much of the new money will go directly to the players. In the 2011-12 season, EPL clubs shelled out P 1.65 billion on wages. This is likely to grow to P 2.2 billion for the coming season. The best performers earn well over P 100,000 a week; Mr Bale’s pay could be around P 300,000.大量的新增资金直接进入球员口袋。11到12赛季,英超俱乐部总共发放了16.5亿英镑的工资。下赛季可能会增至22亿英镑。顶级球员们周薪超多10万英镑,而贝尔的周薪能达到30万英镑。Yet despite the arresting figures, the days of clubs living beyond their means are coming to end. From this season, premier-league clubs will be bound by two sets of “financial fair play” rules. The first, implemented by UEFA, the European game’s governing body, looks at clubs’ finances over a three-year period and limits their permitted losses to euros45m (dollars 59m). Clubs that flout this will be subject to punishments ranging from a warning to a fine to being banned from European competitions. The EPL has also brought in its own rules. These allow clubs more leeway with their debt, but restrict increases to clubs’ wage bills to P 4m, unless they can secure new commercial deals. Teams that break these rules face a ban on transfer activity and will have points docked.尽管面临这些天文数字,但是俱乐部正在摆脱亏损。从这个赛季开始,英超各球队将受两套财政性公平竞争规则限制。第一套规则由欧足联负责执行。三年一个周期,监督监察各俱乐部财务状况。限制开赤字不得高于4500万欧元,也就是5900万美元。无视此法规者将受到惩罚,轻则警告罚款,重则取消欧洲赛事参赛资格。同时,英超也制定了一套规则,允许俱乐部有一定的债务自由,但是规定工资涨幅不得超过400万英镑,除非增加新的商业交易。违反这些规则的球队将面临禁止转会的处分,还会扣除积分。Increased revenue means that most English clubs will comply with both rules. There is, however, uncertainty about Manchester City, a big-spending team owned by Sheikh Mansour, an Abu Dhabi royal. Its lavish transfer fees—the highest in the EPL—are funded, in part, by a P 400m sponsorship deal with Etihad, Abu Dhabi’s state airline. Under UEFA’s rules, it must prove that the airline has not paid more than the market value. Industry watchers are divided as to whether they will succeed. UEFA’s verdict is expected next year. Success on the pitch may now be determined as much by accountants and lawyers as by footballers and managers.利润上涨意味着英超各俱乐部将会配合以上规则。然而,阿布手下开巨大的曼城就不一定会遵守这些规定了。曼城是英超转会费最高的球队,资金部分来自于阿布的国家航空公司阿联酋航空4亿英镑的赞助。根据欧足联规定,曼城必须明该航空公司所给赞助费未超过球队的市场价值。新规定能否会成功仍有争论。欧足联将会在明年推选一名裁判。看来,球队的成功不再只靠球员和教练了,还要有会计和律师助力。201309/256429Fun fact about alligators: they can regrow any of their eightyteeth up to fifty times.关于短嘴鳄的有趣的事实:它们的八十颗牙齿中任一一颗牙都可以重新生长五十次。Which is pretty impressive, especially compared to us relatively dentallychallenged humans:这实在让人惊讶,特别是和我们人类牙齿的相对障碍相比:when we lose adult teeth, theres no regrowing them.当我们失去恒牙便再无重生的可能。But that may change.但这样的情况可能有所改观。Hoping to save the toothless among us from being fated to wearingdentures, scientists are studying how alligators regrow teeth and how the same process may beable to work in humans.为了摆脱我们因没有牙齿而戴上假牙的命运,科学家们正在研究短嘴鳄牙齿再生的机理以及同样的方式如何能够同样作用于人类。Using X rays and tissue samples, plus lab grown gator tooth cells and computer models, scientistshave learned that for each gator tooth there are two tooth precursors, both of which aretriggered to grow when a mature tooth is lost.利用X射线和组织样本,加上实验室生长的鳄鱼牙齿细胞和计算机模型,科学家发现每一颗鳄鱼牙齿上均有两个牙前体细胞,当成熟的牙齿脱落,这两个前体就会触发新牙生长。The growth process begins when a band of tissue called the dental lamina begins to bulge. Thiswakes up stem cells and signaling molecules that kick start new tooth growth. And finally a newtooth grows in to replace the one that was lost.当一组名为牙板的组织开始膨胀,再生的过程就开始了。这一过程唤醒了干细胞和推动新牙生长的信号分子。最后一颗新牙长出并取代原先那颗失去的牙。Now, its difficult to take what nature and evolution have combined to create in one species andsomehow make it happen in another.现在的问题在于,如何让这个在一个物种上结合了自然和进化的产物发生在另一物种身上。But we humans do have remnants of dental lamina.但我们人类仍然有残留的牙板。Andscientists are trying to figure out how to manipulate it to enable tooth growth in people similar tohow it works in alligators.科学家们正试图找出如何操作的方法,使人类牙齿生长的机理和短嘴鳄的相似。We could potentially use that same knowledge to turn off the processesin humans that sometimes cause problems like growing too many teeth or oddly shaped andspaced teeth.我们很可能利用相同的知识结束人类牙齿生长时常产生的问题的过程,例如长了多余的牙齿,或者龅牙以及间隙牙。The alligator research is still in the early stages, so regrowing human teeth is still a ways away.短嘴鳄的研究仍然处于早期阶段,因此人类离牙齿再生的现实还有一定距离。Butbefore too long, replacing a lost adult tooth may be as simple as growing it back.但不久的将来,也许替换一颗掉落的恒牙和新长一颗一样简单。 201401/273723

Just how the news of the birth travel so far and how only the mums with their calves know where to come is unknown.只是这些新生儿怎么会游的这么远,只有妈妈和孩子过来了,从哪里来的一点也不知道。But just the Beaches family seems to welcome Puck and Samuel.就像比奇家庭的成员欢迎帕克和莎木那样。The bays other mums seem to want to do the same.鲨鱼湾的其他海豚妈妈也想欢迎它们。Its Samuels first chance to meet other baby calves, but young females also are drawn to the gathering.这是莎木第一次见到其他小海豚,但小雌海豚看起来很疲惫。Fascinated by new borns, these want-to-be mums often try to lure them away to play.妈妈们对新生儿很感兴趣,想带着它们的孩子一起玩耍。With so many dolphins all meeting together, its a challenge for Puck to keep track of Samuel.这么多海豚聚在一起,帕克很难一直跟着莎木。Hes extremely sensitive to motion.它对动作很敏感。Its how he knows how to follow his mum.它知道该怎样向妈妈学习。Until hes learned his call, theres a risk that Samuel would chase any fast-moving dolphin that comes close.一直学会妈妈的叫声,追逐游得快的海豚很危险。A mischievous young female deliberately rushes pass Samuel, knowing the new born would instinctively follow.一只顽皮的海豚故意从莎木旁边冲过,知道莎木会本能的追赶它。Another female looks being stealing.另一只雌海豚看起来想…Shes trying to take Samuel. Ohh.它想带走莎木。噢!Puck is having none of it.帕克对它毫不客气。Its the only time female dolphins ever show an aggression towards each other.现在是雌海豚的战斗时间,互相争斗。Rushing pass Samuel is the only way Puck can retrieve him.想要找回莎木,帕克必须冲到它的身边。The young female meant no harm to Samuel, but Puck isnt taking any more chances and lead him away to safety.雌海豚对莎木没有恶意,但帕克必须抓住机会把它带到安全的地方。201406/303204




  Innocence in New Orleans新奥尔良的“洗冤录”A shocking tale from the Big Easy自由城里一个骇人听闻的故事Free after 34 years监禁34年后被释放“ITS all good,” Reginald Adams said as he walked free on May 12th, having spent the past 34 years in prison for a murder he didnt commit. A less forgiving man might have put it differently. New Orleans police and prosecutors should have known they had the wrong guy back in 1979. They recovered the gun used in the murder, and linked it to another pair of criminals who had nothing to do with Mr Adams.5月12日,被误判为杀人犯的雷金纳德·亚当斯迈出了监禁了他34年的监狱,并表示:“一切都很好”。许多不像他一样宽容的人或许会觉得不可思议。事实上,新奥尔良的警方和检察官早在1979年就知道他们判错了刑。他们找到了谋杀案里使用的,并实了该案件与另外两个人有关,而和亚当斯毫无关系。All the police had against Mr Adams was his confession: one he gave after a marathon interview, during which police allegedly plied him with alcohol and drugs. Mr Adams got almost every detail of the crime wrong, from the calibre of weapon used to the number of shots fired to the sex and hair colour of the victim.当初,警察一致认为亚当斯先生就是杀人凶手,因为他曾做过一个忏悔—在他接受了一个漫长的采访,并被警方不断指认涉嫌滥用酒精和毒品后。亚当斯先生几乎被指了每一个犯罪细节,从武器的口径和开的次数到受害者的性别和发色。when they first tried him. And they did not hand over to his defence team the police report tracing the guns provenance. Mr Adamss new lawyers say—and the citys current district attorney, Leon Cannizzaro, agrees—that detectives knowingly gave false testimony.在亚当斯先生第一次受审时,警方并没有给他的辩护团提供有关追踪来源的报告。亚当斯先生的新律师称,该市目前的检察官列昂坎尼扎罗,通过了侦探故意提供的虚假词。As Mr Adams languished in prison, some of his tormentors were caught wandering off the straight and narrow. One prosecutor became a crooked judge and was jailed for it. One of the detectives served five years for vehicular homicide. And Ronald Ulfers, the cop whose wife was murdered, is now serving life in prison for murdering his second wife.然而,当亚当斯先生在监狱中备受煎熬时,那些迫害他的人也陆续遭受苦果。一名检察官被实判案不公正并因此入狱;一名侦探因车祸杀人而役五年;而受害人的丈夫罗纳德,则因杀害他的第二任妻子而锒铛入狱。Mr Cannizzaro took only ten days to join the motion by Mr Adamss lawyers to set aside the guilty verdict. The DA said the misconduct was the worst he has seen. That is saying something. The DAs office in New Orleans has become notorious for such cases, largely from the three-decade tenure of former DA Harry Connick senior, the father of a well-known singer. Most of the defective cases involve;Brady violations”: failures to give defendants all material that might be exculpatory.当时,坎尼扎罗先生仅用了10天的时间就否定了亚当斯的律师团要求预留有罪判决的要求。地方检察官表示这样的渎职行为是他见过的最为严重的一次。这同样也明了一个问题。在这样的情况下,地方检察院在新奥尔良变得臭名昭著。这样的情况主要产生于前任地方检察院的高官哈利·康在位的三年内。哈利·康是一位著名歌手的父亲。在他的任期内,许多误判的案件都存在“布雷迪行为”:不能给被告充分的机会来明他们无罪。In one case Mr Connicks men sent John Thompson to death row for a murder he didnt commit, hiding evidence that would have helped him. Mr Thompson narrowly missed being executed. After his exoneration, he won a 14m judgment against the DAs office.在一个案例中,哈利·康等人以谋杀罪判决约翰汤普森死刑。而事实上,约翰?汤普森并没有杀人,哈利·康等人却隐瞒了可以明他无罪的据。汤普森先生差一点被执行死刑。他被释放后,上告哈利·康等人并获得了140万美元的补偿。Mr Cannizzaro appealed the award, saying it would bankrupt his office. In 2011 the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 in his favour, saying the office should not be held liable for the acts of a “rogue prosecutor”. Dissenting, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg wrote that Mr Connicks office had been “deliberately indifferent” to the Brady rule. The Innocence Project of New Orleans, which represented Mr Adams, counts 31 cases from the Connick era where Brady violations have been proven. Mr Connick has said that his office handled so many cases that a few mistakes were bound to occur.坎尼扎罗先生对此判决提出上诉,声称如果这样,地方检察院将面临破产。2011年,最高法院以5:4的比例通过了他的上诉,并表示地方检察院不应该为“流氓的检察官”买单。同时,这也存在异议。鲁思·金斯伯格法官写道:哈利·康的政权已经“故意冷淡”布雷迪规则了。新奥尔良的无罪行动,释放了像亚当斯这样的在哈利·康当权期间被误判的31人,这就是一个很好的明。康尼克先生则说他们地方检察院要处理许多案件,出一些错误是不可避免的。Not long ago, every pillar of New Orleanss criminal-justice system was broken. Now the police and the jail are under federal decrees requiring judicial oversight and reforms, and Mr Cannizzaro has done much to improve the DAs office. But that may be scant comfort for Mr Adams.不久前,新奥尔良刑事司法体系的每一个柱都被打破了。现在警方和监狱正在联邦法规的要求下进行司法监督和改革,坎尼扎罗先生已经对当地检察院做了许多改革。这也许是对亚当斯先生的一点微不足道的安慰。 201406/303770Iran and its nuclear plans伊朗与其核计划Time out对话暂停The West and Iran will negotiate for four more months, but the gap is wide西方与伊朗将全面谈判对话延长四个月,但双方分歧很大AFTER some unconvincing last-minute brinkmanship, Iran and the six world powers it is negotiating with decided on July 18th to extend the deadline for an agreement by four months. The negotiators, seeking to secure a deal to curb Irans nuclear programme in exchange for the removal of sanctions, are taking a break until September. Then they have until November 24th, exactly a year after the signing of the “joint plan of action” that first set the ball rolling, to find a permanent solution.在一些难以令人信的边缘政策出台之后,伊朗和六国7月18日决定将对话延长四个月。谈判方希望能通过一个协定,以解除制裁伊朗来换取停止伊朗核项目。现在,双方对话暂停,于9月重新启动,并将持续到11月24日,这个日子自签订“联合行动计划”,也就是第一次开始对话以寻求永恒的解决办法以来,刚好整整一年。In the meantime, the provisions of the six-month interim deal that came into force on January 20th will stay in place with a few minor tweaks. Iran will take another step towards neutralising its stockpile of 20%-enriched uranium by turning the uranium-oxide powder into fuel plates for a research reactor. In return, Iran will continue to get very limited relief on some lesser sanctions and another 0m a month from frozen bank accounts abroad.同时,1月20日开始实施的临时协定—日内瓦协定将做出一些微调,但基本保持不变。伊朗下一步将通过把二氧化铀粉末变成每一个研究反应堆的板块燃料板件来使用掉库存的20%浓缩铀。反过来,在对伊朗的制裁上,伊朗只能得到些许缓解,以及每月从海外冻结的账户中获得7亿美元的资金。The decision to extend the negotiations makes sense for both sides and was widely expected. For the mainly Western negotiating team known as the P5+1 the interim deal has increased, if only by a bit, the time it would take Iran to produce enough weapons-grade uranium to make a single nuclear device. Some progress has also been made on a plan to defang the heavy-water reactor at Arak that could provide Iran with an alternative plutonium path to a bomb, by adapting it to a design that produces far less plutonium.延长对话的决定既对谈判双方都有益,也广受期待。对主要的西方谈判小组,也就是被大家所知晓的P5+1组织而言 ,对话暂停增加了时间伊朗能生产出足够武器级的铀来制造单个的核装置。目前就计划通过调整适应一个产生极少钚的设计方案以阿拉克重水反应堆已经取得一些进展。阿拉克能给伊朗提供替代性的钚来完成炸弹。Another issue that people close to the negotiations feel could soon be resolved is that of the enrichment facility at Fordow. Buried deep beneath a mountain and believed by many to be invulnerable to attack by conventional bombs, it could now be converted into a fairly innocuous Ramp;D centre. Combined with the enhanced-inspection regime that Iran has largely co-operated with, these are potential gains worth holding on to, at least for now.另外,谈判相关人员能感觉到另一件事情可能很快得到解决,即弗杜的浓缩装置。很多人都认为这批被埋在大山地下深处的装置很容易遭受传统炸弹的轰击,而现在,已经转入一个相当安全的发展研究所。与伊朗大力合作的增前了的审查制度一并,这些都还值得紧紧抓牢,至少目前是这样。For Iran, the choice has been much starker. To walk away from the table at this point would be to condemn Iranians to the prospect of a failing economy permanently locked in the grip of an unyielding sanctions regime. The damage to the presidency of Hassan Rohani, elected last year to end Irans economic and political isolation, would probably be irreparable. Even the glowering supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, might fear the consequences of failure for his regimes legitimacy.对伊朗来说,这种选择则更加严峻了。在这个节骨眼上离开谈判桌,伊朗因一个长期受制裁控制日渐衰退的经济状况而受到指责。去年,哈桑鲁哈尼当选总统,结束了伊朗的经济政治孤立状态,而如今他所受到的迫害怕是无法挽回的,甚至是凶狠的至高领导者阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊,也会害怕政权无效的后果。Western negotiators are clearly hoping that contemplation of that grim prospect will give their Iranian counterparts the space they need to make the further concessions undoubtedly required if a comprehensive agreement is to be reached. America and its negotiating partners want to see Irans current enrichment capacity—about 19,000 centrifuges, half of which are spinning—cut drastically. The Americans believe that anything above 3,000-4,000 would be impossible to sell to a sceptical Congress. Yet the Iranians seem to be digging in their heels by coming up with ever-higher estimates of the number of centrifuges they aim to have.西方的谈判者很明显,他们就是在期待如果要达成全面的协议,不容乐观的前景会让伊朗做出进一步妥协。美国与其协商伙伴希望能看到伊朗大规模减少其目前的浓缩能力——1.9万分离机,其中一半处于工作中。美方认为,超过3000-4000以上,持怀疑态度的国会就不会买账。然而,伊朗似乎拒不让步,他们已经增加了预计持有的分离机数量。In a speech on July 7th, Mr Khamenei declared that Iran must be able to produce enough enriched uranium to fuel the Russian-built Bushehr nuclear reactor when a contract with Russia to supply fuel runs out in 2021. That translates to a “definite need” for 190,000 separative work units. Iran would need more than 100,000 of the older IR-1 centrifuges that are the current backbone of its enrichment programme, or about 20,000 of the more efficient IR-2m centrifuges it has recently begun to deploy. The Iranians say this is in line with what they describe as their “right to enrich” for civil nuclear purposes under the terms of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).7月7日,哈梅内伊在讲话中说到,当与俄罗斯签订的燃料供给合约到2021年到期,伊朗一定能生产足够的浓缩铀供给俄罗斯建造的布什尔反应堆。也就是满足额定的19万分离功单位。伊朗还需10万多老式IR-1分离机,目前这是浓缩项目中的主要设备,或者2万多更高效的IR-2分离机,这也是目前已经开始采用的。伊方表示,这与他们所描述的在《不扩散核武条约》下,“有权浓缩”民用核是一致的。America has tacitly admitted that Iran will have to be allowed to do some enriching as the price for a deal that otherwise constrains its nuclear plans. But it will not accept that Iran, given its record of deceit and clandestine activity, needs a capacity to enrich that is possessed by very few other countries that use civil nuclear power. Robert Einhorn, an arms-control expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington who served in the Clinton administration, argues that the Iranian demand “fails the realism test at several levels”. It has no need to produce all its own fuel because it can either go on getting it from Russia or on the enriched-uranium buyers market. Iran has neither the technical knowledge nor the infrastructure to produce fuel of the type Bushehr requires.美国机智地回应,承认伊朗以达成协议为前提能进行一些浓缩项目,不然将限制其核计划。但鉴于伊朗有撒谎和暗中擅自行为的前科,美国不会允许伊朗拥有只有少数使用民用核的国家拥有的浓缩能力。Robert Einhorn是华盛顿布鲁金斯学会的一位军备控制专家,曾为克林顿工作。他认为伊朗的需求在很多层面上显得不现实。伊朗完全没有必要将其所有的燃料生产出来,因为它能继续从俄罗斯或者浓缩铀市场得到燃料。伊朗既没有技术知识也没有基础设施生产出布什尔所需要的燃料品种。If the enrichment capacity that Iran says it will eventually need is both implausible and far in excess of anything being contemplated as acceptable to the P5+1, so too is its concept of the time an agreement would run before Iran could be treated as a “normal” NPT signatory. Iran is thinking in terms of not much more than five years, while the Americans and their partners have in mind ten to 20 years of punctilious compliance before Iran could start building up its centrifuges again. It is possible that under such a deal Iran might be allowed to continue developing advanced centrifuges and learn the techniques of fuel fabrication, thus preparing itself for a more ambitious nuclear programme after the agreement expires. That, Mr Einhorn thinks, could be the basis of a compromise.如果伊朗所说自己最终需求的浓缩能力既不合情理,也不能被P5+1接受,那么在伊朗也能被视为一个正常的《不扩散核武条约》签署国之前,协议达成所需的时间也是一样的。伊朗的考虑是5年内,而美国及其盟友心中所想的时间伊朗需要谨慎遵从条约规定10到20年,才能再开始建立分离机。只有在这样的前提下,伊朗才有可能被允许继续发展高级的分离机以及学习燃料制造技术,因而在协议期满之后为自己更宏伟的核计划做好准备。 Einhorn表示这是妥协的基础。Can Mr Rohani sell a deal along those lines back home, above all to the enigmatic Mr Khamenei? They may not even know. But four months is not long to find out.鲁哈尼能与哈梅内伊达成协议吗?他们也许不会知道,但是花上四个月的时间,不难发现。 /201407/315253


  Finance and economics财经商业Monetary policy in America美国的货币政策Taper tiger逐渐变弱的老虎The Federal Reserve surprises everyone by changing nothing美国联邦储备委员保持政策不变让人们感到惊奇SHORTLY after the Federal Reserve hinted in May that it might start to ease its monetary stimulus, rich-country bond yields shot up; emerging-market currencies and stockmarkets cratered.在美联储5月暗示可能会退出货币刺激政策后不久,富裕国家的债券收益率飙升,新兴市场货币和股市出现震荡。Was it all for nothing?难道这没有原因吗?On September 18th, at the end of a closely watched meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee, the Feds policy-setting body, chose not to taper.9月18日,在一个被密切关注的会议结束时,美联储的政策制定机构联邦公开市场委员会没有选择退出。Instead, it said it would keep buying 85 billion a month of Treasury and mortgage bonds with newly created money.相反,表示将用新创造的货币继续每月购买85亿的国债和抵押债券。Although the Fed had never actually promised to act in September, all the signals pointed in that direction.虽然美联储从来没有承诺在9月份采取行动,但是所有的信号都指向这个方向。QE would stop, it had said when the latest bout of bond-buying began last September,when the labour-market outlook had improved substantially.去年9月开始的新一轮购买债券时表示,当劳动力市场的前景已经大幅改善时QE会停下来。Since then, the unemployment rate has dropped to 7.3% from 8.1% and private employment has risen by 2.3m, or 2%.从那时起,失业率从8.1%下降至7.3%,私营部门就业增加了2.3或2%。In June Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, said the Fed would probably start to taper by year-end, and stop QE when unemployment hit 7%, which it expected by mid-2014.在6月,美联储主席本?伯南克表示,美联储可能会开始在今年年底如果失业率达到7%就停止量化宽松政策,预计是在2014年中期。So what has now held it back?那么是什么原因导致倒退?First, the pace of job growth has recently flagged; the drop in unemployment has been flattered by the number of people no longer looking for work.首先,就业增长速度最近开始减弱,失业人数的下降是被不再找工作的人数粉饰过的。The labour-market participation rate sank to 63.2% in August, a 35-year low.劳动力市场参与率8月下跌至63.2%,是35年来的新低。Second, fiscal policy continues to work at cross-purposes to monetary policy.其次,财政政策将继续为多个货币政策目的起作用。Higher taxes and spending cuts have subtracted at least a full percentage point from growth this year.更高的税收和削减开至少降低了今年经济增长整整一个百分点。The prospect that spending caps may be lifted when the new fiscal year begins on October 1st has melted away.在10月1日新的财政年度开始时可能会取消出上限的预期已经没有了。With Republicans in Congress and Barack Obama unable to agree on how to fund the government or raise the Treasurys statutory debt ceiling, the risk of a government shutdown loomed large in the minds of Fed officials.随着共和党在国会和奥巴马政府在如何资助或提高财政部的法定债务上限上谈不拢,在美联储的官员看来政府有很大的关闭风险。But the third and most important restraint on the Fed was the unexpected effect on financial markets of a prospective change in monetary stance.但是,对美联储的第三个也是最重要的约束是变动的货币政策对金融市场的意想不到的影响。The central bank had always emphasised that tapering did not mean tightening.央行此前一直强调退出并不意味着紧缩。Provided asset purchases remained above zero, the Feds balance-sheet would keep growing and monetary policy would still be loosening.倘若资产购买仍高于零,美联储的资产负债表将保持增长和货币政策仍然会松动。Separately, the Fed never wavered from its pledge to keep the federal-funds rate near zero at least until unemployment had fallen to 6.5%.另外,美联储从来没有动摇其承诺保持联邦基金利率接近零直到到失业率下降至6.5%。Nonetheless, investors radically repriced their expectations of Fed policy and fled positions predicated on a policy of QE ever after.尽管如此,投资者从根本上重新定价他们对美联储政策的预期,并从量化宽松的政策以后改变了定位。Bond yields have risen by slightly less than a percentage point since May, mortgage rates by slightly more.从五月以来债券收益率上升了约一个百分点,住房抵押贷款利率上涨更高一些。Mr Bernanke fretted that this rapid tightening of financial conditions in recent months could have the effect of slowing growth, a problem that would be exacerbated if conditions tighten further.伯南克担忧最近几个月这种快速紧缩财政的情况会使经济增长放缓问题是继续紧缩会使情况更糟。The euphoric market response to the FOMCs decision this week would seem to vindicate that judgment.这周市场对联邦公开市场委员会决定的积极反应明了这个判断。But it leaves wide open the question of when the Fed will taper.但它留下宽泛的问题,美联储什么时候开始紧缩。The FOMC trimmed its projections for growth this year and next by about a quarter of a percentage point from its June forecast, to 2.2% in 2013 and 3% in 2014.联邦公开市场委员会对今年和明年经济增长四分之一个百分点的6月份的预测进行了修改,2013年增长2.2%,2014年增长3%。It also changed its unemployment projections, which it now expects to hit 7% early in 2014 and 6.5% later that same year.它也改变了失业率的预测,它现在预计2014年上半年将达到7%,和下半年6.5%。Mr Bernanke was at pains this week to stress that the 7% unemployment target for ending QE and 6.5% threshold for raising rates have never been automatic triggers.伯南克本周煞费苦心的强调,达到7%的失业率时退出QE政策和6.5%时提高利率从来没有自动进行。It all depends on what else is happening in the economy.这一切都取决于经济体中发生的其他事情。It is entirely sensible for the Fed not to be slavishly bound by its guidance,对于美联储不会盲目的遵从指导是完全合理的,but that raises questions over how useful such guidance is.但对这种指导有多大用处有人提出了疑问。Most Fed officials expect to raise rates by 2015, for example,大多数美联储官员预计2015年升息,例如,but Mr Bernanke said rates are unlikely to rise if inflation is below its 2% target, which the Feds new projections suggest could be the case until 2016.但伯南克表示如果通胀率低于2%的目标利率不太可能上升,美联储新的预测显示直到2016年才会实行。The start of tapering could conceivably come at the end of October if data reassure the Fed that the economy has brushed off higher bond yields and if a fiscal train wreck has been avoided.如果经济降低债券收益率的数据和财政列车已避免脱轨能够使美联储相信,紧缩计划能够真的在10月底开始。But there are no clear signposts, which will irk investors.但目前还没有明确的标志,这将会使投资者感到恼怒。Their frustration pales next to that of the Fed itself, which has blown its balance-sheet up to 3.6 trillion and held rates at zero since 2008 but achieved underwhelming results in return.美联储本身相形见绌,资产负债表为3.6万亿美元,并从2008年开始维持利率为零,但并没有取得让人满意的回报。On September 17th the federal Census Bureau reported that real household incomes in America, which had fallen by 8% between 2007 and 2011, did not fall further in 2012.联邦人口普查局9月17日报道,在美国2007年和2011年之间家庭实际收入下降了8%,在2012年并没有进一步下跌。That this counts as good news is telling.这算作一个好消息。Income inequality, meanwhile, is worsening on some measures.同时收入不平等使一些措施恶化。Emmanuel Saez at the University of California, Berkeley, reckons the top 10% grabbed its largest share of total incomes since 1917 last year.加州大学伯克利分校的埃马纽埃尔?赛斯估计自1917年以来,去年前10%的人在总的收入份额中占有最大的部分。This is partly due to QE, which has been very good for the stockmarket and thus the wealthy.部分原因是由于量化宽松政策,有利于股市,使某些人更富裕。QE works in part by boosting household wealth and thus spending and jobs, but the effects have not yet filtered through strongly to the wider economy.QE促进家庭财富增加,消费和就业,但效果尚未渗透到更广泛的经济领域。The taps will be open a while longer yet.水龙头在未来的一段时间继续打开。 /201310/259343

  Books and Arts; Book Review;The end of the Soviet Union; Walking dead;文艺;书评;前苏联的末途;行尸走肉;The Last Man in Russia: The Struggle to Save a Dying Nation.By Oliver Bullough.《俄罗斯最后一人:拯救行将灭亡之国》,奥利佛·布洛。Stagnation, writes Oliver Bullough in his haunting account of the late Soviet Union, is not sexy. Biographies of Stalin and Mikhail Gorbachev abound, but nobody has written seriously about Leonid Brezhnev, on whose watch the Soviet Union sank into drunken decay. The author of a definitive book about the tortured history of the north Caucasus (“Let our Fame be Great”), Mr Bullough has a good sense of how the traumas of Russias past affect its present. His new book is a mixture of travelogue and biography, as he traces the life of Father Dmitry Dudko, an Orthodox priest who exemplified both resistance to Soviet rule and defeat at its hands.奥利弗·布洛写过一本描述前苏联晚年的著作,阅读之后令人过目难忘,不过其中“停滞部分”却让人不愿直视。关于斯大林和戈尔巴乔夫的传记汗牛充栋,勃列日涅夫却鲜有人问津,即便他眼睁睁地看着前苏联陷入混沌恍惚的泥潭。关于叙述北高加索伤痕累累历史的著作,布洛的《让我们名声大噪》无疑是最好的一本,也就是说,对于俄罗斯过去的创伤如何影响当今时代——布洛的嗅觉像一样灵敏。布洛的这本新书集游记和传记于一体,主线以东正教传教士德米特里·杜德科神父的一生为轴。德米特里·杜德科神父代表了一类人,首先反对苏联制度,之后却臣于它。The Orthodox hierarchy in the post-war Soviet Union was tainted by collaboration with the KGB. For those repelled by the sterility and corruption of the official ideology, religion was part of the axis of resistance. So the authorities kept the lid on, and religious practice beyond the liturgy was risky.由于同克格勃合作,二战后的前苏联东正教教义算是蒙上了一层不堪的色。所有厌恶政府思想体系下不作为和腐败的角色中,宗教处在抗争的洪流中心。所以,政府当局一直在雪藏宗教,而宗教习俗也不再局限于礼拜仪式,开始走向危险的边缘。Father Dmitry, whose post-war theological studies had been interrupted by eight years in the gulag, was a striking exception. He preached passionately and lucidly. He fostered discussion and roused his flock against the degradation, despair, abortions, alcoholism and promiscuity of Soviet life. He resolutely opposed anti-Semitism. Jews were “sacred friends”, he said. In the early 1970s his sermons became a sensation, published in the West and in samizdat in the Soviet Union. The Communist authorities objected. He defied them. They exiled him to a distant village. His flock followed him there. The authorities moved him again. And on it went.德米特里·杜德科神父战后研究宗教学,期间由于羁押在古拉格(关押叛国罪罪犯的苦役监狱)而中断八年。他可以说是人尽皆知的异数。德米特里·杜德科神父传教富有、条理清晰,并且鼓励集思广益,号召教徒反对国家的倒退,抗击前苏联令人绝望生活中的病症,比如堕胎、酗酒和滥交。毋庸置疑,他是坚决反对反犹太主义的。用他的话说,犹太人是“神圣的朋友”。上世纪70年代,他所著的长篇训诫引起不小的轰动,西方国家和前苏联地下都有出版,当然共产党当局是明令禁止的。德米特里·杜德科神父同他们抗争,政府将他流放到了边远农村。教徒们继而一路追随。政府又转移他的流放地,教徒继续跟随。最后就是“政府藏,教徒追”。He began to see the Soviet system as the source of his countrys ills. In 1977 he told the New York Times of the “diabolic storm” that had broken on his country. “Our nation has become corrupted, the family has fallen apart, the nation has got drunk, traitors have betrayed each other.” That was true. But by the late 1970s detente was ending. Fame in the West was no protection. Even a lone independent-minded priest was an existential—and intolerable—threat for the brittle Soviet leadership. The fledgling dissident movement was systematically crushed—by imprisonment, exile, coercive psychiatry or ferocious pressure on family members.德米特里·杜德科神父开始认识到前苏联大的系统正是国家症结所在。1977年,他向“纽约时报”讲道,说“罪恶的风暴”搅得这个国家天翻地覆。“我们的国家腐败透顶,家庭离破碎,我们的国家此时就像一个醉汉,卖国贼之间互相叛变。”他没说错。不过,70年代后期国际紧张关系不再处在缓和状态,西方国家不再顾及名声。在脆弱不堪的前苏联领导层面看来,甚至一个单独具有独立思想的神父也成了实实在在并且不能再坐视不管的威胁。异见运动还没孵化就遭到有计划的打击——监禁、流放、强加精神病罪名亦或异见者家人承受着不堪重负的压力。In January 1980 Father Dmitry was arrested. His friends prayed; the West protested. But he emerged six months later, a changed man: a zealous, repentant patriot who, in a sensational television broadcast, admitted to working with foreign powers against the Soviet state. Worse, he denounced his friends and helpers.1980年1月,德米特里·杜德科神父遭逮捕。他的朋友开始祈祷,西方国家表示抗议。不过在六个月之后,德米特里·杜德科神父不再是之前德米特里·杜德科神父:“洗心革面”之后的他成了一位热忱的爱国志士。他在电视广播中的表态令人震惊:承认与外国势力里勾外连,以反对前苏联政府。更不堪的是,他还揭发了自己的朋友和战友。It was a huge propaganda coup for the regime. He showed no signs of torture, drugs or exhaustion. One of his followers wrote an open letter accusing the KGB of the “murder of my spiritual father”.对于政权而言,大篇幅的宣传获得了意想不到的成功。在他身上,人们看不出一丝拷打或者下了迷魂药的迹象,而他也不显一丝疲态。德米特里·杜德科神父的一位追随者发表了一封公开信,谴责克格勃“谋杀了自己的灵魂长者”。Mr Bullough explains the mystifying conversion. The KGB played on his fears of renewed imprisonment and separation from his family. A skilful interrogator, Vladimir Sorokin found and enlarged the “chink” in his victims soul: patriotism. Surely no true, law-abiding Russian could side with the enemies of his country?布洛在书中解释了这一令人匪夷所思的转变。克格勃利用了德米特里·杜德科神父恐惧二进宫的心理以及害怕同家人再度分开的心情。弗拉基米尔·索罗金深谙审讯之道,他在手中这位受害者的灵魂之中察觉到了一个致命的软肋,并且将其放大:爱国主义。但是,真就没有一个真正并且守法的俄国人会站在国家敌人这一边了吗?Later Father Dmitry was filled with remorse. But it was too late. Dogged by loneliness and guilt, and unable to resurrect his crusade for trust, hope and faith, he descended into the fetid swamps of Russian nationalism, wallowing in the paranoid anti-Semitism he had once eschewed. The brave, happy and confident man of the 1960s and 1970s became a miserable racist, a campaigner for hatred and nihilism.之后,虽然德米特里·杜德科神父心理满是悔恨,但是为时已晚。孤独和罪恶感陪着他走完余生,其间他一直苦于不能重塑自己当年“为信任、希望和信念而战斗的形象”。他深陷散发着“俄罗斯式爱国主义”恶臭的泥潭之中,沉浸在多疑好猜忌的反犹太主义之中,即使这是他曾经一度反对的。60年代勇敢、自信、快乐的德米特里·杜德科神父死了,70年代的德米特里·杜德科神父变成一个卑鄙无耻的种族主义分子,一个满脑子仇恨、虚无缥缈的沿街叫骂的人。Mr Bullough largely succeeds in using this sad tale as a metaphor for the fate of the Soviet Union. He weaves the woes of past decades into his journeys to wretched villages, along with the lies and greed in the metropolis. Father Dmitry may be all but forgotten in modern Russia, but his old self would have plenty to say about it.布洛以这则悲情故事来充当前苏联命运的影子,新书也因此获得了巨大的成功。在过去的几十年里,他游历了一些贫穷困苦村庄,他把其中所体验的悲伤编入书中,当然还有大都市的谎言和欲望。德米特里·杜德科神父或许已经消逝在现代俄罗斯人民的生活里,但是60年代的神父依然对现代俄罗斯影响深刻。 /201306/244713。




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