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With growth slowing, and foreign manufacturers gaining share, many of China#39;s auto industry players could face extinction. 随着增长放缓以及外国生产商市场份额扩大,许多中国本土汽车厂商可能面临绝境。Some Chinese car makers are looking to the Beijing auto show, which opens to the media Sunday, as a chance to fight back by forging stronger bonds with Chinese car buyers through branding or woo them with popular products. 一些中国汽车厂商将北京车展视为反击的机会,试图利用品牌或高人气产品与中国购车者建立更紧密的联系。北京车展周日向媒体开放。Zhejiang Geely Holding Group said Friday it was scrapping its three separate brands--Emgrand, Gleagle and Englon--in favor of a single Geely brand. Chairman Li Shufu said multibrand strategy had stretched Geely beyond its capabilities by forcing it to develop vehicles in three different categories. 浙江吉利控股集团(Zhejiang Geely Holding Group)周五说,将撤销三个单独的品牌帝豪(Emgrand)、全球鹰(Gleagle)和英伦(Englon),采用统一的吉利品牌。吉利董事长李书福说,多品牌战略迫使吉利开发三个不同类别的车辆,超出了吉利的能力范围。SAIC Motor Corp.#39;s MG brand, Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Co., or JAC, and Chongqing Lifan Industry Group Co. will each release a compact sport-utility vehicle, which is increasingly popular in China. Great Wall Motor Co. will launch its H8 SUV, which had been delayed over quality concerns. 上海汽车集团股份有限公司(SAIC Motor Co., 简称:上汽集团)旗下MG品牌、安徽江淮汽车股份有限公司(Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Co.,简称: 江淮汽车)和重庆力帆实业(集团)有限公司(Chongqing Lifan Industry (Group) Co.)将分别发布一款紧凑运动型多用途车(SUV),这种车在中国越来越受欢迎。长城汽车股份有限公司(Great Wall Motor Co. 简称:长城汽车)将发布H8 SUV,这款车之前因质量问题被推迟发布。These companies are hoping to persuade car buyers such as Ying Guohua, a 49-year-old self-employed Beijing resident, to remain loyal to Chinese brands. Mr. Ying used to drive a Zhonghua, a brand once owned by BMW#39;s China partner Brilliance China, that cost him around 180,000 yuan, or ,200. #39;It wasn#39;t really what I expected,#39; he said. #39;Overall, it was aesthetically appealing, but it just didn#39;t feel sturdy when I drove it.#39; He upgraded to a 450,000 yuan Audi. #39;It was exactly the type of car I wanted because it#39;s German...It feels powerful to drive and it#39;s sturdy.#39; 这些公司希望说像应国华(音)这样的购车者继续忠于中国品牌。49岁的应国华是北京人,从事个体经营。应国华以前开一辆花了约人民币18万元(合29,200美元)购买的中华汽车(Zhonghua),这个品牌曾经归宝马(BMW)的中国合作伙伴华晨中国(Brilliance China)所有。他说,那辆车没有真正符合他的期望,车子总的来说很漂亮,但开起来感觉不够皮实。他换了一辆人民币45万元的奥迪(Audi)。他表示,那才是他想要的那种车,因为它是德国牌子。他说,奥迪车开起来动力强劲,而且很皮实。Chinese brands are struggling to win Chinese consumers, a trend that appears to have accelerated in the first quarter. Geely#39;s Hong Kong-listed unit reported sales of 89,607 vehicles, down about 37%. Warren Buffett-backed BYD Co. sold 103,500 cars in China in the first quarter, a drop of about 28% from the same period the previous year. Chery Automobile Co. reported a 25% fall to 109,000 vehicles. 中国品牌难以赢得中国消费者的芳心,这个趋势似乎在第一季度有所加快。吉利在香港上市的子公司宣布一季度销量为89,607辆,下滑约37%。巴菲特(Warren Buffett)投资的比亚迪(BYD Co.)一季度在中国销量为103,500辆,同比下降约28%。奇瑞汽车有限公司(Chery Automobile Co.)宣布一季度销量下滑25%,至109,000辆。Chinese brands including minivans held nearly 39% of the market in the first three months of the year, compared with 43% in the year-earlier period, according to the government-backed China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. 中国汽车工业协会发布的数据显示,今年第一季度,包括微型客车在内的中国自主品牌汽车的市场份额下滑至接近39%,低于上年同期的43%。By contrast, many foreign auto makers are posting solid Chinese gains. Ford Motor Co. sold 271,321 cars here in the first quarter, up 45%. 相形之下,许多外国汽车厂商的在华销量强劲上扬。福特汽车(Ford Motor Co.)一季度在华销量增长45%,达到271,321辆。Poor quality, uninspiring marketing and an inefficient industry structure lie at the heart of Chinese auto makers#39; woes. Compounding these problems, foreign car makers and their Chinese joint-venture partners are increasingly looking to produce low-cost cars as they anticipate a boom in demand as hundreds of millions of rural Chinese move to cities to seek jobs, housing and cars. 质量差、营销弱、行业结构缺乏效率是中国自主品牌汽车陷入困境的根源。令形势更加严峻的是,外国汽车厂商和它们的中方合资伙伴已经开始着眼于生产低价车,因为它们预计随着上亿中国农村人口进入城市寻找工作、购买住房和汽车,低价车的需求将迅速上升。The Chinese government also requires foreign auto makers to work with their local partners to develop low-price brands for China. Nissan Motors and partner Dongfeng sold 10,487 of their joint brand Venucia in the first three months of this year--just slightly less than sales of Nissan#39;s popular Qashqai SUV. This translates to added competition for Chinese car companies, especially those that don#39;t have a foreign partner. 中国政府也要求外资汽车厂商与中国合作伙伴共同开发适合中国市场的低端品牌。日产汽车(Nissan Motors)和中国东风汽车公司(Dongfeng)的合资品牌启辰(Venucia)一季度的销量达到10,487辆,只略低于日产汽车人气SUV逍客(Qashqai)的销量。这意味着中国本土汽车公司将面临更大的竞争压力,尤其是那些没有与外资合作的本土公司。#39;Chinese brands are still very weak and I have no idea how long that will continue,#39; said Dong Yang, executive vice chairman and secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. 中国汽车工业协会常务副会长董扬说,中国自主汽车品牌依然十分弱小,这样的局面不知道要多久才会改变。In China, between 60% and 70% of car purchases are made by first-time buyers, according to Paul Gao, head of consulting firm McKinsey amp; Co.#39;s automotive team in Asia. He said that with greater experience, car buyers pay more attention to the overall cost of owning a car, examining factors such as fuel efficiency and maintenance costs--areas where foreign brands excel. 咨询公司麦肯锡(McKinsey amp; Co.)的亚洲汽车行业团队负责人高旭(Paul Gao)认为,中国60%至70%的购车者是首次购车。他说,有了更多的经验之后,购车者会更加关注拥有汽车的整体成本,考察诸如燃油效率和维护成本之类的因素,而这正是外国品牌占优势的地方。Dongfeng Motor Group Co. Chairman Xi Ping said last month that while great progress had been made by Chinese auto brands, they still weren#39;t as strong as those from other countries. #39;I am convinced China will surely...produce a strong auto brand,#39; he said. 东风汽车董事长徐平上个月说,虽然中国汽车品牌取得了很大的进步,但实力仍然不及其他国家的品牌。他说,他相信中国肯定会打造出强大的汽车品牌。There is some indication that Chinese car makers are building better cars. Last year marked the first time four Chinese brands ranked above industry average in J.D. Power#39;s study of more than 27 best brands in China in terms of initial quality, something Geoff Broderick, vice president at the company#39;s Shanghai office, described as a #39;breakthrough.#39; 有一些迹象表明中国汽车厂商正在制造更好的汽车。去年J.D. Power对逾27个中国最好的汽车品牌进行了研究,其中四个品牌的新车质量首次高于行业平均水平。J.D. Power上海办事处的副总裁布罗德里克(Geoff Broderick)说,这样的情况是一种突破。#39;Quality is improving, but the customer doesn#39;t perceive that,#39; Mr. Broderick said. #39;Chinese love brands and the perception among Chinese consumers is that if you have the wherewithal you#39;ll buy a foreign brand.#39; 布罗德里克说,中国品牌的质量在改善,但消费者还没有感受到。他说,中国人喜欢品牌,中国消费者的看法是,如果你有钱,就要买外国品牌。Libra Hu, a 23-year-old technology company employee in Beijing, drives a 600,000 yuan Audi--a wedding gift from her and her husband#39;s parents. #39;The whole car was produced and imported from Germany. We trust its quality and [Audi#39;s] service.#39; 在北京的23岁科技公司员工Libra Hu开的是一辆人民币60万元的奥迪车,这是她父母和公公婆婆送给她的结婚礼物。她说,这辆车是德国产、从德国进口的,她全家都信任奥迪的质量和务。In China, a hodgepodge of companies--state and privately owned Chinese companies and their foreign joint-venture partners--vie for car buyers#39; attention. China has roughly twice the number of brands and models that the U.S. has, according J.D. Power#39;s Mr. Broderick. He#39;s forecasting a capacity utilization rate of around 44% for Chinese car manufacturers this year--around half the levels seen at the factories of global players in China. 在中国,众多公司(包括国有和民营中资公司以及它们与外国的合资公司)争相吸引购车者的注意。J.D. Power的布罗德里克说,中国的品牌和车型数量差不多是美国的两倍。他预计中国汽车厂商今年的产能利用率在44%左右,大约是在华外国品牌工厂产能利用率的一半。Talk of consolidation is common. 有关行业整合的言论十分普遍。Ford Chief Executive Alan Mulally said in an interview in Beijing he expects larger Chinese companies with Western partners will buy out weaker, small players. #39;The economics will take over,#39; Mr. Mulally said. #39;If you don#39;t have scale, you just won#39;t be able to be competitive.#39; 福特首席执行长穆拉利(Alan Mulally)在北京接受采访时说,他预计规模更大、与西方企业合作的中国公司将会收购较为弱小的公司。穆拉利说,经济因素将会占据主导,如果没有足够的规模,就无法与他人竞争。Yet Geely#39;s Mr. Li said he has his hands full running his own car company and has no plans to drive a consolidation wave. 但吉利的李书福说,他运营自己的汽车公司就已经忙得不可开交,并无推动整合浪潮的计划。Some are investing in foreign names abroad for brand cachet and know-how. In March, Dongfeng purchased a stake in France#39;s PSA Citro#235;n. Beijing Automotive Industry Holdings Co. has also said it is actively scouting acquisition prospects in Europe and the U.S. 一些中资厂商投资外国品牌,以此获得品牌效应和专有技术。今年3月,东风汽车收购了法国汽车生产商标致雪铁龙(PSA Peugeot Citroen)的部分股份。北京汽车工业控股有限责任公司(Beijing Automotive Industry Holdings Co.,简称:北汽控股)也说,正在积极考察在欧洲和美国的并购前景。At home, some industry players have begun to collaborate. Guangzhou Automobile Group Co. and Chery formed an alliance in 2012 to cooperate on issues including research, the development of energy-efficient #39;green cars#39; and auto-parts production. SAIC Motor is taking advantage of its partnership with GM to build its sedan Roewe 950 on the Buick platform. Geely is working with Volvo, the Swedish brand it acquired in 2010, to develop new vehicles. #39;There will be more and more of that going forward, #39; said Mr. Gao of McKinsey. 在国内,一些汽车厂商已经开始合作。2012年广州汽车集团股份有限公司(Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.)和奇瑞联手,在研发节能“绿色汽车”和汽车零部件生产等方面展开合作。上汽集团利用与通用汽车(GM)的合作关系,基于别克(Buick)平台打造其荣威(Roewe) 950轿车。吉利正与其2010年收购的瑞典品牌沃尔沃(Volvo)合作开发新车型。麦肯锡的高旭说,这种情况将会越来越多。 /201404/289535Chinese industrial action cost Cooper Tire m in the three months to September 30, the Ohio-based company reported, shedding rare light on the economic impact of a labour dispute in China.总部位于美国俄亥俄州的固铂轮胎(Cooper Tire)报告称,中国的劳工行动导致其在截至去年9月30日的3个月期间损失2900万美元。这也让人罕见地一瞥中国劳资纠纷的经济影响。While strikes are common across China, they typically occur at little-known suppliers. On those rare occasions when labour unrest disrupts operations at a large multinational, the impact on a global company’s overall operations is usually not material enough to force disclosure about a specific strike’s financial cost.中国各地尽管经常发生罢工,但通常发生在不知名的供应商中。少数发生在大型跨国公司中的劳工骚乱,对跨国公司整体运营的影响通常又不足以迫使其披露某一次罢工的财务成本。The seven-month industrial action at Cooper’s joint venture Chengshan Tire factory in Shandong province derailed a .4bn bid by Apollo Tyres for Cooper, in what would have been the largest Indian takeover of a US company. It also occurred at a facility that generates as much as one quarter of Cooper’s revenue and profit.发生在位于山东的固铂成山轮胎公司(Cooper Chengshan Tire,固铂旗下的合资公司)的这场为时7个月的罢工,让阿波罗轮胎公司(Apollo Tyres)对固铂24亿美元的收购计划告吹。该笔收购原本会是印度对美国企业规模最大的一笔收购。固铂有高达四分之一的营收和利润来自发生罢工的固铂成山。In a delayed third-quarter earnings report, Cooper said the strike had cost it m in reduced production and a further m in “manufacturing inefficiencies”. The company incurred a further m in expenses related to the failed transaction during the quarter.在这份延迟发布的三季度盈利报告中,固铂表示,罢工导致其因减产损失2200万美元,因“生产效率低下”进一步损失700万美元。固铂在该季度还产生了500万美元与收购交易失败有关的费用。The losses in Shandong contributed to a 25 per cent year-on-year fall in third-quarter sales, to 2m. Operating profit contracted almost 80 per cent compared with 2012, to m. Cooper reported a net loss of 8,000 for the July-September period, compared with a net profit of m a year earlier.受罢工事件的影响,固铂三季度销售额同比下跌25%,至8.32亿美元。营运利润比2012年缩水近80%,至2800万美元。在7-9月期间,固铂报告净亏损16.8万美元,而上年同期该公司报告净盈利7400万美元。Management and the workforce at Chengshan had opposed the proposed takeover by Apollo, arguing that it would saddle Cooper with too much debt.固铂成山的管理层和工人反对阿波罗的收购计划,称收购会让固铂背上太多债务。 /201403/278023China#39;s central bank is continuing its campaign to bolster the nation#39;s property market, which is experiencing a downturn that has dented demand for commodities and weighed on global growth forecasts.中国央行(PBoC)继续推行措施,提振中国房地产市场前景。目前,中国房地产市场正处于低迷状态,不仅压低了中国对大宗商品的需求,还压低了全球的增长预期。In what is best described as an incremental move in an ongoing project, the People#39;s Bank of China said it would lower the down payments people with an existing mortgage pay on their second home loan to 40 per cent from 50 per cent.中国央行表示,拥有1套住房且相应购房贷款未结清的人,购买第二套房时贷款的首付比例从50%下调至40%。对于该行这一动作,最佳的描述应该是整套计划中渐进性的一步。This, the PBoC said in a statement (link in Chinese) was:“One step further to improve credit policy for individual householders.”该行在声明中表示,这一举措是“为进一步完善个人住房信贷政策”。The PBoC added it wanted to ;support households; in their home purchases.此外,该行还补充表示,希望“持居民家庭”购买普通自住房。China#39;s flagging property market comes after a multi-year boom that has ended as the government and central bank tried to remove some credit risk from the highly leveraged economy.在中国政府和央行试图消除高度杠杆化经济中的部分信贷风险之际,中国的房地产市场在多年的繁荣之后一蹶不振。The new rules on second home loans will be welcomed by Chinese developers, who have been forced to sacrifice profits to boost sales, as the downturn in the housing market saddles them with bulging inventories and limited access to new funding.有关二套房房贷的新规定将受到中国房地产开发商的欢迎。此前,楼市低迷曾令他们库存日渐膨胀,获得资金的途径日益受限。受其影响,他们曾被迫让利促销。 /201504/367525

Expectations are high that India will finally realise its full economic potential through a combination of Modi magic, its abundant young labour force and a more liberal policy regime. A recent adjustment in the country’s accounting has led to claims that it may aly have replaced China as the world’s fastest growing economy. Yet, if India is to achieve the same sustained success as China, it needs to take a hard look at why its urbanisation process has failed so miserably in comparison.人们普遍预期,有了莫迪(Modi)的“魔法”、充裕的年轻劳动力以及更为自由的政策机制,印度最终将充分实现其经济潜力。最近印度调整了国内生产总值(GDP)计算方式,结果使一些人宣称,该国可能已经取代中国成为全球增长最快的经济体。然而,要想像中国那样取得持续成功,印度就需要认真审视一下,与中国相比,本国的城市化进程为何遭遇惨败。Four decades ago, these two most populous and poor countries faced similar economic prospects. With the bulk of their labour force stuck in subsistence farming and a relative scarcity of natural resources, the success or failure of their development efforts would be defined by their urbanisation process. In 1980, India was further ahead than China with an urbanisation ratio of 25 per cent ratio compared with the latter’s 20 per cent. Today, China has more than doubled its ratio to 53 per cent, while India’s has edged up only slightly to 32 per cent — and even at that level is marked by more pervasive pockets of slums. Some believe that China may have even reached saturation point.40年前,这两个世界上人口最多、最为贫穷的国家面临类似的经济前景。由于大部分劳动力一直从事自给农业,而且自然资源相对匮乏,它们发展努力的成功与否将由城市化进程决定。1980年,印度的城市化率为25%,比中国的20%领先一步。现在,中国的城市化率增长一倍多至53%,而印度仅略微增长至32%,甚至在这个水平上,它的城市还以更为随处可见的贫民窟为特点。一些人相信,中国的城市化率甚至可能已经达到了饱和点。China’s rapid industrialisation-driven urbanisation process led to a sustained double-digit surge in real wages, which uplifted some 600m rural people out of poverty and accounted for half the country’s 10 per cent annual gross domestic product growth rates from 1980-2010. In contrast, despite its impressive service-sector development, India has not managed to develop a vibrant manufacturing sector and most of its labour force is still mired in low-productivity rural activities.中国由工业化驱动的快速城市化进程导致其实际薪资水平持续两位数增长,从而使得约6亿农村人口摆脱贫困,同时中国从1980年到2010年平均每年10%的GDP增长有一半来源于此。相比之下,尽管务业发展引人瞩目,但印度没有实现制造业部门的蓬勃发展,大部分劳动力仍从事生产率低下的农业活动。Thus, it is not surprising that many see a revamped urbanisation process as being critical to India’s development agenda. Much of the current discussion has focused on the nuts and bolts of improving urban institutions, education and municipal financing to encourage larger and more productive cities. But most of it misses the point. China’s success occurred despite it having similarly weak institutions and, unlike India, it still has a restrictive residency system that discourages rural workers from relocating to urban commercial centres. However, in today’s India the basic incentives for a more dynamic and productivity-driven urbanisation process do not exist. If they are to be established, there needs to be a much better understanding of the nature of the problem.因此,并不令人意外的是,许多人认为调整城市化进程对印度的发展日程至关重要。当前讨论大多集中在改善城市制度、教育和市政融资的细节上,目的是促进规模更大、生产效率更高的城市产生。但这种讨论大多没说到点子上。尽管中国的制度同样有缺陷,而且与印度不同,现在它仍保留着阻止农村人口迁移到城市商业中心的限制性户籍制度,但中国仍取得了成功。然而,在今天的印度,并不存在让城市化进程更具活力、以及由生产率推动城市化进程的基本刺激因素。要想创造这些刺激因素,就需要更好地理解问题的本质。The reason why India has failed and China succeeded can be illustrated by two simple indicators: their respective ratios of urban to rural incomes and the prices of urban property.两个简单指标可以阐明印度失败而中国成功的原因:两国各自的城市与农村收入比,以及城市房价。The ratio of incomes gives a sense of the relative differences in productivity between the cities and countryside. For China, this ratio is 3.2 – the highest in world. On average, urban workers are more than three times as productive as rural workers and are being compensated accordingly. No wonder some 270m migrant workers have flocked to the cities to secure better paying industrial jobs. For India, the same measure gives a ratio of 1.6, one of the lowest for emerging market economies, indicating that urban productivity is only moderately higher than in rural areas, and cities do not offer such a magnet of higher earnings.收入比可以让人们了解城市和农村生产率的相对差距。中国的该比率为3.2,为全球最高水平。平均而言,城市劳动者的生产率是农村劳动者的3倍多,相应的薪酬比也是3倍多。因此约2.7亿农民工蜂拥至城市来从事薪资更高的工业工作就不足为奇了。同时印度的该比率是1.6,在新兴市场经济体中的最低之列,这表明其城市的生产率仅略高于农村地区,城市也缺乏更高收入的吸引力。The other key indicator is the relative difference in property prices in China versus India. China’s mega-cities have seen a five-fold increase in property prices in renminbi terms, or nearly seven-fold in US dollars over the past decade. No wonder concerns about a possible property bubble in China dominate global financial news. Yet despite these astounding increases, property prices in Beijing and Shanghai are still only half those of their Indian counterparts of New Delhi and Mumbai.另一个关键指标是中印房价的相对差距。在过去10年里,中国特大型城市的房价按人民币计算上涨了4倍,按美元计算上涨近6倍。难怪全球金融新闻都是对中国房地产泡沫的担忧。然而,尽管房价涨幅惊人,但北京和上海的房价仍然只有印度新德里和孟买的一半。So because the productivity-related benefits are so much lower in India, the incentive for rural workers to migrate to the cities is much less than in China and this is accentuated by the relatively higher cost of living in Indian cities due to exorbitant property prices. These same inflated property prices coupled with other factors — notably logistical bottlenecks — put Indian manufacturers at a cost disadvantage in competing in global markets despite their lower wages. The net effect is to hobble India’s progress.因此,由于印度与生产率相关的好处要低得多,农村劳动者迁移至城市的动机就远低于中国,同时由于房价高得离谱,印度城市生活成本相对较高,农村劳动者就更不愿迁移至城市。同样虚高的房价加上其他因素(尤其是物流瓶颈),使得印度制造商在全球市场竞争时处于成本方面的劣势,尽管它们的薪资水平较低。最终结果就是阻碍了印度的发展。India’s lower urban-to-rural productivity ratio is partly the result of well-recognised distortions in its investment and pricing regime, as highlighted in studies done by the World Bank and IMF. But less widely understood is the negative impact of urban land-management policies.正如世界(World Bank)和国际货币基金组织(IMF)的研究强调的那样,印度城市生产率与农村生产率之比较低,部分是因为其广为人知的投资和定价机制的扭曲,但较少人认识到城市土地管理政策带来的负面影响。India’s excessively high property prices reflect a combination of two archaic practices. One is the legacy of its colonial past in reserving large parcels of valuable urban land for government use, including sprawling and wasteful estates for civil servants and military cantonments. The other comes from outdated and overly rigid building codes that discourage concentrated development of commercial activity and housing in the core of its major cities. This pushes development to the outer suburbs, making it difficult to realise the agglomeration benefits that drive productivity gains.印度房价过高反映出两种陈旧做法的影响。一个是过去殖民地时代遗留下来的做法,即将大块宝贵的城市土地保留下来供政府使用,包括为公务员和兵营保留庞大且浪费性的地产。另一个做法则产生于过时且过分僵化的建筑法令,这些法令不鼓励在主要城市的核心区集中开发商业活动和住房。这把开发活动赶到了郊外,从而很难通过集群化来提升生产率。Unless these issues are addressed, India cannot realise the growth benefits from a more rapid urbanisation-cum-industrialisation process which has characterised China and much of east Asia over the past four decades.除非这些问题得到解决,否则印度不可能获得更加快速的城市化和工业化进程带来的发展益处——而在过去40年里,快速城市化和工业化是中国和大部分东亚国家的特点。 /201506/380097

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