2019年10月18日 16:58:09|来源:国际在线|编辑:安指南
The average price of a wedding in the U.S. is ,000, according to wedding-industry trackers TheWeddingReport.com. But an increasing number of couples are embracing frugality by tossing out the preconceived notions of the big-ticket wedding.据婚庆行业研究网站TheWeddingReport.com的数据,美国人在婚礼上的平均开销是26,000美元。不过,有越来越多的新人选择摒弃人们认为婚礼就得有奢华排场的习惯性思维,开始追求节俭朴素的婚礼。This year, more than 2 million wedding ceremonies will take place in America, and although 34% of the couples will spend more than ,000 on nuptials, another 39.5% will spend less than ,000. The substantially smaller price tag of the latter group is a trend that saw an uptick during the recession, and it#39;s one that#39;s here to stay, notes Andy Brennan, an analyst at research group IBISWorld.今年美国有会有超过200万场的婚礼,但其中计划花费超过20,000美元的新婚夫妻只占34%,另外有39.5%的新人婚礼花费将不超过10,000美元,像后者这样大幅缩减结婚费用的做法已经成为了一种趋势,在经济不景气的环境中,有越来越多的人效仿。研究集团IBISWorld的分析师安迪·布伦南(Andy Brennan)指出,这样的势头还会持续下去。One reason: The cost of getting married has soared. From 1980 to 2012, wedding costs jumped 460%, according to IBISWorld, while the cumulative rate of inflation grew only 178.6%. Another reason is that more people are delaying marriage because of the still-stagnant economy. According to a 2012 Pew Research Center report, 20% of people aged 18 to 34 put off marriage because of tough economic conditions. #39;The landscape has definitely changed,#39; Brennan says. #39;People tend to have more of a focus on their careers and get married at a later time because they#39;re much more conscious about what they can save and when they should get married.#39;一个原因:婚礼费用已经飙升得太高了。根据IBISWorld的数据,从1980年到2012年,婚礼费用增长了460%,而同期累计通货膨胀率也不过178.6%。另外一个原因是,越来越多的人因为经济依旧不景气而推迟结婚。据皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center) 2012年的一份报告显示,18至34岁人群中,有20%的人因为经济不好推迟结婚。布伦南说,情况无疑已经发生了变化,人们愿意把精力更多地放在事业上,并为此推迟结婚,因为他们在考虑能存多少钱和何时该结婚的问题上变得更加地理智清醒。So for all those frugal brides and grooms, here are some ways to save.那些想节俭办婚礼的新郎新娘们,这里有一些省钱的诀窍。Go digital for save-the-dates发送电子预请帖This year, nearly 0 million will be spent on save-the-date cards, according to TheWeddingReport.com. But that time-honored tradition of mailing a wedding reminder several weeks before receiving the actual wedding invitation is starting to be viewed by some consumers as antiquated and a waste of money. In fact, save-the-date spending is anticipated to diminish over the next four years, according to TheWeddingReport.com.据TheWeddingReport.com的统计,新人们今年花在预请帖(save-the-date card)上的费用将接近两亿美元。预请帖就是在发真正的婚礼请柬之前的数周邮寄出的一个婚礼日期通知,是一种有着悠久历史的婚礼传统。但是,有一些开始认为这样的做法既过时又费钱。实际上,据TheWeddingReport.com称,新人们在预请帖上的开销预计将会在未来四年内不断减少。So while spending per wedding for save-the-dates (plus postage) isn#39;t a huge expense, many couples have forgone lickable stamps and paper. In 2012, nearly one in three couples created and/or sent save-the-dates online, compared with just one in five in 2009, reports theKnot.com. Why the shift? The rise of online shopping has helped change perceptions of what#39;s appropriate wedding planning behavior, notes IBISWorld#39;s Brennan. #39;It was once considered cheap to put a save the date online, but now it#39;s accepted,#39; he says.尽管平均每场婚礼预请帖的花费(外加邮资)只有不算多的97美元,但许多夫妻还是摒弃了纸质的邮票和卡片。婚礼主题网站theKnot.com 称,2012年,三对夫妻中就有一对夫妻在网上制作和(或者)发送预请帖,与之相比2009年时五对夫妻中只有一对这样做。为什么会有这样的转变?IBISWorld的布伦南认为,是网络购物的崛起帮助人们改变了对婚礼筹备习惯的认知。他说,以前人们认为在网上发预请帖会显得很小气,但现在大家都接受了这种做法。In fact, it#39;s so widely accepted that some well-known designers have started creating electronic save-the-dates. Paperlesspost.com, an e-greeting card website, offers more than 500 different virtual save-the-dates, and some were designed by Kate Spade New York and Oscar de la Renta, among others. Last year, the site emailed 3 million wedding save-the-dates, says its CEO, James Hirschfeld. Many of the designs are free, while some incur a small fee for a virtual envelope and liner. Another popular free e-card site, Evite.com, sent out 2.6 million save-the-date invitations in 2013, says its editorial director, Marilyn Oliveira. Among the more than 95,000 save-the-date events sent via Evite, Los Angeles, Houston, New York, Chicago and Atlanta were the top five mailers last year.实际上,在网上发预请帖确实已被广泛地接受,甚至有一些知名的设计师也开始制作电子预请帖。电子贺卡网站Paperlesspost.com上有超过500种的虚拟预请帖,其中一些设计出自Kate Spade New York和Oscar de la Renta等知名品牌之手。Paperlesspost.com首席执行长詹姆士·赫希菲尔德(James Hirschfeld)说,去年网站共发送出300万份婚礼预请帖。许多请帖的设计是免费的,但虚拟的信封和封套需要花点钱。另外一家热门的电子贺卡网站Evite.com,其网站编辑部主任玛丽莲·奥利维拉(Marilyn Oliveira)说,在2013年他们共发送了260万份预请帖。共有95,000场仪式的预请帖是通过Evite发送的,使用数最多的前五个城市是洛杉矶、休斯顿、纽约、芝加哥和亚特兰大。Get married in the off-season选择淡季办婚礼Traditionally, the demand is high for summer weddings, as are the costs. Venues, bakers, caterers, florists and planners may all charge more during the peak season because their time and services are so stretched. Thus, couples can easily save thousands by getting married when these services aren#39;t in high demand. For example, booking a reception at a venue (particularly in cold-weather states) in the fall when they have more vacancies makes it easier to negotiate a lower price -- and it can help you land the ceremony date of your choice.传统上夏季是婚礼的旺季,成本因此也很高。对于婚礼场地、烘焙店、酒席承办方、鲜花店和婚礼策划公司而言,它们的务在旺季的时候会供不应求,费用自然也会收得更高。因此,如果新人们选择在淡季举行婚礼,就可以轻松省下数千美元。比如,可以定制一场秋季婚礼(特别是在天气寒冷的州),这时婚礼场地会有更多的空档,更容易争取到较低的价格,而且还有助你选到自己喜欢的大婚日子。Consequently, fall weddings are growing even more popular, as 32% of couples chose the season, theKnot.com says. So while June weddings still reign supreme -- 291,000 June weddings took place in 2013 -- September has become the second-most popular month to get hitched, according to TheWeddingReport.com. Even October dates are more attractive than April, May and July.结果是,秋季婚礼正变得越来越流行,据theKnot.com称,有32%的新人选择了秋季办婚宴。据TheWeddingReport.com称,虽然六月婚礼依然是绝对的主力军—2013年六月婚礼数量达到了291,000场,但九月份已经成为了第二受欢迎的婚礼月份。甚至10月份也比四月、五月和七月对新人更有吸引力。But off-season weddings aren#39;t the only way to save, says Wendy Kidd, the vice president of the American Association of Certified Wedding Planners. More couples are also opting for Friday ceremonies rather than Saturday or Sunday. While a weekday wedding makes it more difficult for cross-country guests to attend, it#39;s a clear money saver, she says. Take the Indian Pond Country Club, which is located 35 miles outside of Boston, and is a reoccurring best pick by theKnot.com. The club charges ,000 less for Friday peak-season receptions (,000) compared with Saturday receptions (,000) in its 500-guest-capacity grand ballroom. Similarly, Friday receptions in the off-season, which runs from Nov. 1 to April 30, cost ,000 -- compared with ,500 for off-season Saturday receptions.但美国持婚礼策划师协会(American Association of Certified Wedding Planner)的副总裁温迪·基德(Wendy Kidd)说,淡季婚礼也并非省钱的唯一办法。许多夫妻还会选择周五而不是周六或周日举行婚礼。她说,虽然在工作日举行婚礼会让外地的亲朋好友做难,但这显然是省钱的好办法。以波士顿郊外35英里的印第安池塘乡村俱乐部(Indian Pond Country Club)为例,它曾多次被theKnot.com评为最受欢迎婚礼场地。它能容纳500人的大宴会厅对旺季周五婚礼的报价是11,000美元,比周六报价17,000美元少了整整6,000美元;同样,在11月1日至4月30日的淡季期间,周五婚礼价格是8,000美元,到了周六就得要12,500了。Trade in a cake for cupcakes大蛋糕换成纸托蛋糕A spectacular wedding cake with fondant flowers dusted in gold, scalloped edges -- or whatever your Pinterest board inspired you to do -- can get pretty costly. The average wedding cake costs nearly 0, and while it#39;s only a sliver of the total wedding cost, one in five couples spend more than that, even upwards of ,000 on dessert, according to TheWeddingReport.com. So don#39;t let the price of a wedding cake take the...well, you know.翻糖花点缀、扇形金色镶边的婚礼大蛋糕(上面还可以加上任何你灵感迸发想出其他好玩意),会花掉你的一大笔钱。据TheWeddingReport.com称,婚礼蛋糕的平均价格接近500美元,虽然这只是婚礼总开销的九牛一毛,但每五对夫妻中就会有一对夫妻在甜点上的花销要远远超过这个价格,甚至达到了1,000美元。所以,不要让婚礼蛋糕的花费太那个什么了…你懂的。The cost of a cake is calculated per slice, and can range from a few dollars to a slice, reports theKnot.com. And don#39;t forget about the delivery fee and cutting fee. While it#39;s best to have the baker deliver the cake themselves because they#39;re the experts, the cutting fee goes to the vendor when you don#39;t use an in-house baker. The cutting fee ranges from to per slice for cutting, serving, and cleaning up afterward. To avoid those pesky fees and save on the overall expense, many couples have turned to cupcakes. (But some couples also prefer cupcakes because it#39;s the trendy thing to do.) After all, they#39;re just mini cakes in disguise. You can mix-and-match different flavors to suit your guests#39; varying taste buds. Plus, you#39;ll save on the baker#39;s end, as assembly and design time are minimal for cupcakes.theKnot.com称,蛋糕的价格是按块来计算的,每块从几美元到15美元不等。不过,别忘了还有运输费和切分费用。既然烘焙店是专业做这个的,最好还是让烘焙店自己送蛋糕,不过,如果你没有用内部的烘焙坊,还得付给卖家切分费。蛋糕切分费从每块2美元至5美元不等,包括切分、餐和之后的清理。为了省掉这块麻烦的费用,降低总体的婚礼开销,许多夫妻转而使用纸托蛋糕。(不过还有一些夫妻是为了赶时髦而使用杯托蛋糕)。毕竟,它们不过是装扮了的迷你蛋糕。你可以根据宾客们的不同口味提供各种风味的蛋糕,另外,这还能让你省了烘焙方面的成本,因为纸托蛋糕装配和设计的时间是最短的。Live stream the ceremony消减仪式规模Today, the average wedding has 131 guests, and the price per head is 2. So many couples have started to keep the nuptial costs down by limiting the guest list. In fact, since peaking at an average of 184 guests in 2006, the figure has been on a steady decline, dropping 29% over the last seven years. To accommodate those who were axed, or who simply can#39;t make the trip, couples have started broadcasting their weddings like the royals themselves. Last year, nearly 20,000 weddings were broadcast over Ustream.tv, the largest live- streaming platform. Ustream.tv is well-known for streaming everything from zoo-animal births to space walks, but in the past year alone it#39;s seen a 250% rise in wedding streams, says spokeswoman Joellen Ferrer. #39;It#39;s been an interesting phenomenon,#39; Ferrer says. #39;More people are looking at this technology to bridge the gap and allow family to attend an event when they physically can#39;t be there.#39;如今一场婚礼邀请的宾客数量平均为131名、新人们在每位宾客身上的花费是192美元。因此,许多夫妻开始通过限制宾客数量来降低婚礼开销。事实上,自从2006年每场婚礼平均的宾客数达到了184位的最高值之后,这个数字一直在稳步下降,在过去七年累计下跌了29%。为了照顾那些被从名单上砍掉的宾客、和那些无法到场的亲朋好友,新人们开始像皇家婚礼一样直播自己的婚礼过程。去年,有近20,000场婚礼登上了最大的视频直播流媒体平台Ustream.tv。Ustream.tv本来是以传播从动物园动物产子到太空漫步等各类视频而出名,但网站发言人乔伦·费勒说(Joellen Ferrer)说,光去年一年,其婚礼视频的数量就增长了250%。费勒说,这是一个有趣的现象,有越来越多的人用流媒体来拉近彼此的距离,让不能亲身到场的亲朋好友也能参与其中。Ustream.tv charges a month for its ad-free-pro-silver plan, which enables couples to live stream their wedding ceremony via a mobile device, webcam, or other compatible device for friends and family not in attendance -- essentially saving the couple ,600 or more for 50 virtual guests. They can then download the saved file to a hard drive as a keepsake, or store it on the Ustream cloud for a month if they cancel the pro-silver subscription plan.Ustream.tv的无广告专业银套餐计划每月收费99美元。购买这个套餐后,新人们可以通过手持设备、网络摄像头或者其他兼容设备为不能到场的亲朋好友直播婚典盛况,这无形中为新人们省去了50位虚拟客人9,600美元以上的费用。他们之后可以把存好的视频下载到硬盘上留作纪念,也可以直接存在Ustream的云端,但如果他们停止使用专业银套餐计划,每月要付15美元的存储费。Opt for something borrowed考虑购买“二手婚礼”If tacking small sections of the budget isn#39;t enough, some couples are forgoing wedding planning altogether -- only not in the way you think. They aren#39;t eloping to save money, but are purchasing the actual wedding (catering, venue, and all) from other couples who cancel their weddings and don#39;t want to foot the bill. With 270,000 (13%) of couples cancelling their weddings each year -- or an estimated .8 billion dollars down the proverbial drain -- it#39;s potentially a lucrative enterprise as wedding insurance doesn#39;t cover everything, some industry insiders say.一些夫妻嫌从小处省钱还不够,还会考虑放弃整个婚礼筹备——只是方式并非和你想的一样。他们不是为了省钱而私奔,而是要从那些取消婚礼、而又不想付账的夫妻那里把婚礼整个买下来(包括酒席、场地等等)。每年有270,000对(占13%)夫妻取消婚礼,估计要白白浪费掉68亿美元,一些婚庆业内人士说,这是一项潜在的赚钱大买卖,因为婚礼保险并不覆盖所有的东西。Subsequently, bridal brokerage websites have emerged to help put some of that money back into the hands of the jilted ex-couples. CanceledWeddings.com, a fledging wedding brokerage site, boasts that its registrants have a cumulative budget of million that needs to be spent in the next six months, according to its CEO, Peter K. Ulrich. Recently, the website brokered a deal for a fully-paid wedding in Maryland discounted by 70% (where the average wedding costs ,600, according to TheWeddingReport.com). #39;The more expensive it is, the better deals you can get,#39; Ulrich says. #39;The buyers just expect a good deal, and that#39;s what we#39;re trying to do; we saw a way to solve a problem so no one loses.#39;帮助这些取消婚礼的前夫妻们挽回部分经济损失的婚礼中介网站应运而生。CanceledWeddings.com就是一家新兴的婚礼中介网站,据网站首席执行长彼得·k·乌尔里希(Peter K. Ulrich)说,在其网站上登记的用户有累计5,000万美元的婚礼预算要在未来六个月消化掉。最近,这个网站促成了一单交易,把马里兰州一场全额付的婚礼以七折的价格转卖给了另外一对夫妻。(据WeddingReport.com称,当地婚礼的平均费用是32,600美元。)乌尔里希说,婚礼费用越高,你能拿到的折扣就越大。买家们就想买到便宜的婚礼,这也是我们努力的方向,我们找到了一种皆大欢喜的方式解决大家的问题。These websites broker deals by acting as the point-of-contact entity between the wedding cancelers and prospective buyers while maintaining each couple#39;s privacy. For example, when a couple cancels their wedding, they enlist a broker#39;s help to list their #39;pre-packaged wedding#39; on the broker#39;s canceled weddings website. Then, another couple can reserve the package by taking over the first couple#39;s contracts with the vendors and by paying any remaining fees. Thereby, they#39;ve accepted financial responsibility for a wedding they never planned, but will still participate in at half the cost.这些网站充当了婚礼取消方和婚礼潜在买家之间联络的桥梁,同时还要保守每对夫妻的隐私。比如,当一对夫妻要取消婚礼时,他们会请来中介帮助他们把“婚礼全套装”在中介的婚礼取消网站上挂牌销售。之后,另一对夫妻可以从婚礼务提供方那里把第一对夫妻的合同转签过来,并付剩余未付的费用,从而定下这个“婚礼全套装”。这样一来,他们就要承担一场不是他们自己策划的婚礼的所有费用,不过金额可能只有原价的一半。 /201404/290497Dutch cyclist Maarten de Jonge is one very lucky man, having cheated death twice in the past four months.荷兰自行车手马尔腾·德·容格非常幸运,在过去的4个月中他两次与死神擦肩而过。De Jonge was scheduled to fly aboard Flight MH370, which vanished without a trace in March, and he also had a ticket for Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, which was downed by a missile this week over the Ukraine - but he changed his travel arrangements at the last minute in both cases.马尔腾·德·容格先后计划乘坐马航三月失联航班MH370和马航本周在乌克兰被击落的航班MH17,但他两次均在最后一刻改变了行程安排。On Friday, the 29-year-old professional athlete issued a statement on his official site confirming that he was supposed to take the doomed MH17 flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur Thursday, but he pushed back his departure by several days.周五,这位29岁的职业运动员在自己的官方网站发表了一则声明,实自己原本计划搭乘周四从阿姆斯特丹飞往吉隆坡的坠毁航班MH17,但后来他决定将自己的出发日期延后几天。De Jonge told the Netherlands station RTV Oost that despite his second brush with death, he plans to take another Malaysia Airlines plane this week and has no concerns for his safety.德·容格告诉荷兰电视台RTV Oost,尽管两次与死神擦肩而过,他本周还是计划搭乘另一班马航飞机,而且对自己的安全问题没有顾虑。‘I have been lucky twice, that#39;s the third time as well,’ de Jonge reportedly said.据报道,德·容格表示,“我两次都非常幸运,第三次也会很幸运的。”De Jonge, who is part of the Terengganu Cycling Team based in Malaysia, had booked a seat on Flight MH17, planning to return to Kuala Lumpur after taking part in national championships in his native Holland earlier this month, the Sydney Morning Herald reported.据悉尼先驱晨报报道,德·容格是马来西亚登嘉楼州自行车队选手,上月他回国参加荷兰全国锦标赛,后计划乘坐MH17航班飞回吉隆坡。But the athlete ultimately decided to take another, cheaper flight with a layover in Frankfurt, Germany, on Sunday.但他最后决定改签周日更为便宜的中转联程航班,在德国法兰克福转机。‘I could have taken that one just as easily,’ de Jonge said in the RTV Oost interview. ‘It#39;s inconceivable. I am very sorry for the passengers and their families, yet I am very pleased I#39;m unharmed.’德·容格在接受RTV Oost采访时说,“我本来无疑会搭乘那班飞机。这真是让人难以置信。我为机上的乘客和他们的家人感到遗憾,但我也很高兴我还好好活着。”In his written statement Friday, de Jonge downplayed his two very close calls, saying that his story is meaningless compared to those of the victims and their families.德·容格在周五发表的书面声明中轻描淡写地叙述了自己两次侥幸脱险的经历,表示相比于遇难者和他们家人的遭遇,自己的经历毫无意义。He declined to comment further out of respect for the 298 passengers and crew of Flight MH17, at least 189 of them Dutch citizens, who perished in the tragedy.出于对遇难者的尊重,他拒绝就此事再做。坠毁航班MH17上共有298名乘客和机组人员遇难,其中189名为荷兰公民。 /201407/314180

Our ancestors lived in eras we call the Stone Age, the Bronze Age and the Iron Age. Ours is the “fossil-fuel age”. The energy we have extracted from the earth’s reserves of fossilised sunlight has sp (unequally shared) abundance across humanity. Will this continue? Can we manage its impact on our environment? The answers will shape the future of our complex global civilisation.我们祖先生活的时代,我们称之为石器时代、青铜时代和铁器时代。我们生活的时代是“化石燃料时代”。我们从地球上的化石化太阳能储量中提取的能量已将富足传播给整个人类,尽管这种传播并不均匀。这个时代会延续下去吗?我们能管控化石燃料对人类环境的影响吗?这些问题的将决定我们复杂的全球文明的未来。As always, BP’s Energy Outlook provides a glimpse into a possible future. No doubt, its forecasts will be wrong. But it tells us what well-informed people at the heart of the oil and gas industry consider “the likely path of global energy markets to 2035”. It puts forward five important propositions about a plausible energy future.像以往一样,BP此次发布的《能源展望》(Energy Outlook)为我们提供了一个一睹可能前景的机会。毫无疑问,它的预测将是错误的。但它告诉了我们,身处油气行业核心的消息灵通人士所认为的“全球能源市场至2035年的可能发展路径”是什么。这份报告给出了一个貌似有道理的能源前景,并围绕这一前景提出了五个重要观点。First, global economic output is forecast to rise by 115 per cent by 2035. Asian emerging economies — principally China and India — are expected to generate more than 60 per cent of that increase.首先,全球经济产出预计到2035年时将增长115%。亚洲新兴经济体(主要是中国和印度)对这一增幅的贡献预计将超过60%。The primary driver of the rise in global output is expected to be a 75 per cent jump in global average real output per head, as the prosperity of emerging economies catches up with that of high-income countries. Population growth plays a distinctly subsidiary role. It is not the number of people, but rather their prosperity, that drives demand for commercial energy.全球经济产出增长的主要推动力,预计将来自全球人均实际产出75%的跃升,而新兴经济体的繁荣程度将赶上高收入国家。人口增长起到了明显的辅助作用。但推动商业能源需求的并不是人类的数量,而是人类的繁荣。Second, as a result of rapidly rising energy efficiency, energy consumption is forecast to grow by only 37 per cent. This is far less than the rise in output of real goods and services.其次,由于能效迅速提高,能源消费预计仅将增长37%。这个数字远小于商品和务实际产出的增幅。Third, emissions of carbon dioxide are forecast to grow by 25 per cent, a growth rate of about 1 per cent a year. In terms of the link between output and emissions, this is a huge achievement. But — given the need to cut emissions outright, in order to have a good chance of limiting the global average temperature rise to below 2C — it is wholly inadequate. Thus, in 2035, emissions of CO2 are forecast to be 18bn tonnes above levels suggested by the International Energy Agency’s “450 Scenario”. This seeks to limit atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration to the equivalent of about 450 parts per million of CO2. If such targets are to be met, something far more radical needs to occur. (See charts.)第三,二氧化碳排放量预计将增长25%,即年增长1%左右。就经济产出与碳排放之间的关联而言,这是一个巨大的成就。但是,考虑到有必要彻底减排、如此才有机会将全球平均气温升幅控制在2摄氏度以下,这一成就还远远不够。如果真是增长25%,那么2035年的二氧化碳排放量预计将比国际能源署(IEA)“450情景”建议的水平高180亿吨。“450情景”寻求将大气中温室气体的浓度限定在450ppm二氧化碳当量。要实现这样的目标,就必须作出一些激进得多的努力。(见图表)Fourth, improvements in energy efficiency are a far more important driver of the relatively low growth in emissions than shifts in the fuel mix. This is despite a substantial rise in use of renewables. So, between 2013 and 2035, output of renewable energy is forecast to grow by 320 per cent. Even so, its share in primary energy production is forecast to grow only from 2.6 per cent to 6.7 per cent. The combined share of renewables, hydroelectricity and nuclear power grows only from 9 per cent to 19 per cent. This, then, is expected to remain a fossil-fuel age.第四,能效提高是造成碳排放增长相对较低的主要因素,燃料结构变化则是一个重要性低得多的因素,尽管可再生能源的使用量有大幅增长。2013年到2035年,可再生能源的产量预计将增长320%。尽管如此,可再生能源产量在一次能源产量中的占比,预计仅会从2.6%升至6.7%。可再生能源、水电和核电产量的合计占比仅会从9%升至19%。因此,预计到2035年时我们仍将处于化石燃料时代。Fifth, the revolution in the production of shale gas and tight oil is expected to continue, with their share in primary energy production rising to about 10 per cent. An important result is large shifts in patterns of trade. So the US is forecast to shift from being a net importer of 12m barrels a day of oil in 2005 to being a net exporter by 2035. Meanwhile, China is forecast to shift to being a net importer of more than 13m b/d by 2035 (from self-sufficiency in the early 2000s); and India to being a net importer of about 7m b/d. Such shifts have huge geopolitical implications.第五,页岩气和致密油的生产革命预计将持续下去,它们在一次能源产量中的占比将升至约10%。一个重要的结果是贸易格局的大转变。也就是说,预计到2035年时,美国将从石油净进口国(2005年日均净进口石油120万桶)变为净出口国。而中国到2035年时,预计将从2000年代初的石油自给自足变为一个日均净进口石油逾130万桶的国家;印度预计将变成一个日均净进口石油约700万桶的国家。这一转变将产生巨大的地缘政治影响。It would be wrong to describe these forecasts as simply “business as usual”. They actually imply a faster rise in energy efficiency than between 2000 and 2013. But they are not radical. The world would continue to rely overwhelmingly on fossil fuels and it would emit ever greater quantities of greenhouse gases. Could we do better?如果把以上预测描述为就是“一切如常”,那就错了。实际上,它们意味着能效提高的速度将快于2000年至2013年间。但这不会起到根本作用。世界将继续严重依赖化石燃料,全球温室气体的排放量会越来越大。我们能做得更好些吗?I start from the presumption that humanity will aspire to and often manage to achieve the prosperity now taken for granted in rich countries. So we need an accelerated technological revolution. At the Oslo Energy Forum last month, I heard Amory Lovins of theRocky Mountain Institute describe just such a revolution. He argued, for example, that US gross domestic product in 2050 could be 2.5 times what it is today, even if the country stopped using oil, coal and nuclear energy altogether and cut its use of natural gas by one-third. This would mean carbon emissions of just one-fifth of their present level. Moreover, he argued, the revolution could well be driven by market forces alone, given the growing economic superiority of the new technologies. There might, he suggests, be no need to to take direct policy action against rising emissions of carbon dioxide.富国如今存在着一种想当然的推断,即认为人类会渴望繁荣并且通常也能实现繁荣。我就从这点说起。因为渴望繁荣,所以我们需要加速技术革命。在上月召开的奥斯陆能源论坛(Oslo Energy Forum)上,我听到洛基山研究所(Rocky Mountain Institute)的艾默里#8226;洛文斯(Amory Lovins)恰巧描述了这样一场革命。他举例辩称,即便美国彻底停用石油、煤炭以及核能、并将天然气用量削减三分之一,该国2050年的国内生产总值(GDP)也可达到今天的2.5倍。这意味着碳排放量仅为美国今天水平的五分之一。他还辩称,考虑到新技术带来的经济优势日益增加,很可能单靠市场力量便可以有效推进这场革命。他暗示,也许没有必要针对日益增长的二氧化碳排放采取直接政策行动。The sense of the BP report (not surprisingly, perhaps, given that BP is a fossil-fuel producer) is that such a radical and rapid market-driven revolution is unlikely. The purported obstacles are many: costs, technological limits, slow turnover of the capital stock, inability to implement policy globally and natural inertia. In brief, I fear BP is right about the obstacles. But Mr Lovins might be right about the opportunities, though only if policy makers give them a big push.BP报告的言下之意是这样一场彻底、迅速、由市场驱动的革命不太可能发生(考虑到BP是一家化石燃料生产商,它持这样的观点或许并不令人意外)。报告声称这面临很多障碍:成本、技术局限、资本存量周转缓慢、政策无法在全球范围内推行以及自然惯性。简言之,BP对这些障碍的判断恐怕是正确的。但洛文斯对机遇的判断可能也是正确的,尽管前提条件是政策制定者大力推动这些机遇。If governments could agree to implement a tax on carbon, they would give a big impulse towards an energy future that is more efficient and less polluting. Governments should invest strongly in fundamental science and new technologies. Finally, governments can help the sp of new technologies abroad and help finance their uptake at home. With this push, normal market forces should pull the world economy towards a more sustainable future.如果各国政府能答应实施碳税,将是对更更低污染能源前景的有力撑。各国政府应该在基础科学和新技术领域大力投资。最后一点,各国政府可帮助在海外传播新技术,并为新技术在国内的消化吸收提供资金帮助。凭借这种持,正常的市场力量将拉动世界经济走向更可持续的未来。Mass poverty is not an option. But neither is taking ever-bigger gambles with the climate. The right course has to lie in between. To put ourselves on that course, we need to wean ourselves off the excesses of the fossil-fuel age. It is a daunting challenge. But it has to be met, for our children’s sake.大规模的贫困不容接受。但是,在气候方面进行越来越危险的也不是好的选择。正确的道路必须介于两者之间。为了走上正确的道路,我们必须戒除化石燃料时代的各种无节制行为。这是一项严峻的挑战。但是,为了我们的子孙,我们必须直面这一挑战。 /201503/363293

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