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来源:69健康    发布时间:2019年06月17日 04:44:25    编辑:admin         

Three years after he bought the Volvo car brand for .8 billion, Chinese auto pioneer Li Shufu is doubling down on his bet that he can revive the storied Swedish auto maker by turning its focus to China.以18亿美元买下沃尔沃(Volvo)汽车品牌三年后,中国汽车业先驱李书福押下重注,他要通过主打中国市场的方式让这个瑞典汽车生产商恢复生机。On Wednesday, Volvo Car Corp. showcased its new plant here as part of a plan to make China key to the brand#39;s survival. Locally built Volvos should increase in the future to 75% of the brand#39;s sales in the country from 15% now, officials said.沃尔沃汽车公司(Volvo Car Corp.)周三在成都展示了其新工厂,这是让中国成为该品牌生存关键要素的部分计划。有高管说,未来中国本土生产的沃尔沃占该品牌在中国内地销量的比例应该能增加到75%,现在这一比例仅为15%。Volvo#39;s new Chinese plant will be able to produce 120,000 cars a year, and it initially would make Volvo S60L sedans. Production would start late this year and the factory will eventually employ around 2,500 employees at full capacity. Mr. Li#39;s Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. bought Volvo from Ford Motor Co. F -3.36% in 2010.沃尔沃的这个新工厂年产量将达到12万辆,最初将生产S60L轿车,今年底量产,全部投产后最终雇员将在2,500人左右。2010年,李书福的浙江吉利控股集团(Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co.)从福特汽车公司(Ford Motor Co.)手里买下了沃尔沃。Still, Volvo is playing catch-up. Audi, the Volkswagen VOW.XE -0.34% luxury brand, and BMW BMW.XE -1.26% build in China the majority of the vehicles they sell in the country. That frees them from a 25% import duty, lowers shipping costs and allows them to respond more rapidly to shifts in demand.尽管如此,沃尔沃仍在奋起直追。大众汽车(Volkswagen )旗下的豪华品牌奥迪(Audi)和宝马汽车公司(BMW )在中国市场上销售的大多数汽车都产自中国,这样可免除25%的进口税,降低运输成本,并且可对需求变化做出更加迅速的反应。Volvo plans to launch six new models in China this year. Volvo President and Chief Executive H#229;kan Samuelsson promises new Volvos that will be #39;at a level we as a brand have never seen before.#39;沃尔沃计划今年在中国推出六款新车型。沃尔沃总裁兼首席执行长萨穆埃尔松(Hakan Samuelsson)承诺,沃尔沃新车将跃上一个空前的台阶。The company today is targeting 200,000 car sales in China─and 800,000 globally─by 2020. That 2020 goal represents a step back from the ambitious goals a few years ago. He once had talked of selling 200,000 vehicles in China by the middle of this decade.沃尔沃眼下的目标是到2020年实现在华销量20万辆,全球销量80万辆。相比几年前的雄心壮志,这个2020年的目标似乎后退了一步。萨穆埃尔松曾说,到2015年左右在华销量要达到20万辆。Since then, Volvo has slid backward. World-wide sales fell 6.1% in 2012 to about 422,000 cars and sport utilities from 2011. Volvo is unprofitable, although the company says it prefers to focus on operating income, which was 18 million Swedish kronor (.7 million) in 2012.他说这番话之后,沃尔沃便开始走下坡路。2012年,沃尔沃全球销量同比下降6.1%,售出了大约42.2万辆轿车和运动型多功能(SUV)车。虽然沃尔沃说更愿意着眼于运营利润,但该公司现在并不盈利。2012年,沃尔沃的运营利润为1,800万瑞典克朗(合270万美元)。Volvo has been hurt by poor sales in recession-battered Europe, a key market accounting for more than half of global sales. The brand also has lost ground in the U.S., where sales are recovering. Volvo#39;s U.S. sales are down nearly 6% to 25,900 vehicles through May 31 this year, far behind luxury car leaders Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Lexus.在遭受衰退重创的欧洲,疲弱的销售给沃尔沃带来了冲击。欧洲是该公司的关键市场,占沃尔沃全球销量的比重超过一半。此外,沃尔沃在销售复苏的美国也失掉了部分市场。今年年初至5月31日,沃尔沃在美国的销量下降了近6%,至2.59万辆,远落后于豪车领导者梅赛德斯-奔驰(Mercedes-Benz)、宝马和雷克萨斯(Lexus)。Volvo has been slow to launch smaller, more fuel-efficient cars and SUVs in the U.S. Mr. Samuelsson says new, more economical engines on tap for the end of this year should help rebuild Volvo#39;s U.S. sales to 100,000 cars a year, the level it had before the recession.沃尔沃在美国推出更小、更节能轿车和SUV的步伐一直很缓慢。萨穆埃尔松说,今年年底将使用的更节能的新型发动机应该有助于让沃尔沃在美销量恢复至每年100,000辆。衰退前沃尔沃的年销量就是这个水平。In China, which is on track to be the world#39;s largest luxury-car market, Volvo sales through the first five months of this year are up by 27% from a year ago to 22,905 vehicles. Still, Volvo ranks No. 5 among luxury brands in the market.中国有望成为全球最大的豪华车市场。今年前五个月,沃尔沃在华销量同比上升27%,至22,905辆。不过,沃尔沃在中国豪华车市场中仍排在第五位。Volvo needs to capture drivers like Allan Song. A 40-year-old general manager at a multinational company in Beijing, Mr. Song likes the Volvo XC60 sport-utility vehicle and the brand#39;s reputation for safety. But he drives an Audi A6. #39;I#39;ve heard that Volvo cars are safe, but it#39;s just a concept,#39; he said. #39;I don#39;t have any real experience with it. Volvo never reached out to me for a test drive.#39;沃尔沃需要“俘获”像Allan Song这样的车主。40岁的Allan Song是北京一家跨国公司的总经理,他喜欢沃尔沃XC60 SUV以及该品牌的安全口碑。但他开的是奥迪A6。他说:我听说过沃尔沃汽车很安全,但这只是一个概念,我没有任何实际的体验。沃尔沃从来没有联系过我试驾。Michael Xu, general manager of a Volvo dealership in Chengdu, said the brand needs more models for customers to choose from, especially #39;high-level#39; models priced greater than one million yuan.沃尔沃成都一家经销商的总经理Michael Xu说,该品牌需要提供更多的车型供客户选择,特别是定价在人民币100万元以上的高档车型。#39;These type of models would help build Volvo#39;s brand image,#39; he said. The most expensive Volvo available for sale at his dealership is 700,000 yuan (3,000). In the five months to May his dealership sold 400 Volvos, up 63% from the same period a year earlier.他说,这类车型将可帮助打造沃尔沃的品牌形象。他们店里销售的最贵的沃尔沃汽车价格在人民币700,000元(合113,000美元)。在截至今年5月的五个月中,他们店销售了400辆沃尔沃汽车,较去年同比增加63%。Moving up the sales rankings will require cash for new models. Mr. Li indicated he may borrow some of the capital he needs.若想在销量排行榜上提升名次,则需要投入资金研发新的车型。李书福暗示说,他可能筹借所需的部分资金。He didn#39;t specify details. Volvo executives say there has been a lot of interest in participating in financing of the company as long as the company can show it is on track to achieve its goals.他没有透露详细情况。沃尔沃高管们说,只要该公司能够显示有望实现目标,很多人表示有兴趣参与该公司的融资。Mr. Samuelsson said Volvo spends about seven billion Swedish kronor annually on development costs. The former CEO of truck maker MAN SE MAN.XE -0.33% took over as Volvo CEO last fall after its board sacked then CEO Stefan Jacoby after Volvo reported a first-half loss.萨穆埃尔松说,沃尔沃每年斥资约70亿瑞典克朗用于研发。他曾任卡车生产商MAN SE的首席执行长,去年秋季出任沃尔沃首席执行长。之前沃尔沃公布2012年上半年亏损后,董事会解除了当时的首席执行长雅各比(Stefan Jacoby)的职务。Volvo has secured three key financing deals recently, including a 922 million (.21 billion) refinancing deal with the China Development Bank and a 1 billion kronor credit facility with the Swedish Export Credit Corp. RJI +0.12% and additional financing from a group of banks.沃尔沃最近敲定了三笔重要的融资交易,包括一笔与中国国家开发(China Development Bank)规模9.22亿欧元(合12.1亿美元)的再融资交易,一笔与瑞典出口信贷公司(Swedish Export Credit Corp.)规模10亿瑞典克朗的信贷安排,以及多家提供的更多融资。#39;Volvo Car is at a stage where we need to pay attention to profitability, but at same time we need to invest,#39; Mr. Li said. #39;We need to cooperate with financial institutions so we can go into the future.#39;李书福说,沃尔沃汽车正处于一个需要关注利润的阶段,但同时需要进行投资。我们需要与金融机构合作,以便能够走向未来。 /201306/243090。

Toyota stole a march on the global automotive industry by popularizing gas-electric hybrid engines, using its Prius brand to highlight the technology. But now that the Prius and hybrids are permanent fixtures in the automotive lineup, Toyota has decided it has some catching-up to do in the category of conventional gasoline engines以普锐斯(Prius)品牌为代表,丰田汽车公司(Toyota)通过普及油电混合动力发动机技术在全球汽车行业中抢得先机。现在,普锐斯和混合动力车型已经在产品线中占得一席之地,丰田决定接下来要在传统汽油发动机技术领域赶超对手。Automakers like Nissan and Mazda are highly competitive in fuel efficiency ratings, using smaller, lighter powerplants to score high with consumers and governments. According to reports in the trade press, Toyota will narrow the gap shortly with two new engines that will be available in 14 variations around the world through next year. The first example has appeared in Japan, a hatchback known as Passo, powered by a 1.0-liter engine. Fuel efficiency in this model supposedly has been improved by 30 percent.日产(Nissan)、马自达(Mazda)等汽车制造商在燃料效率评级方面极具竞争力,其车型使用了较小较轻的发动机,因而得到消费者和政府部门的高度评价。据汽车行业媒体报道,丰田将利用两款全新发动机迅速缩小自己跟竞争对手的差距,该公司将在接下来一年把这些发动机装备到旗下14款不同车型上。第一款车型已经在日本面世,这款名为Passo的掀背式轿车,其发动机拥有1.0升排量,燃料效率据信可以比原来提高30%。For more than a year, the automaker has been touting a program it calls Toyota New Global Architecture (TNGA), that includes a number of automotive innovations, including engines. First off will be a 1.3-liter four-cylinder and a 1.0-liter three-cylinder that employ several advanced processes that improve fuel efficiency, including one known as an Atkinson burning cycle. Engines using the Atkinson technology previously had been used only in Toyota’s gas-electric hybrids.一年多以来,丰田一直在宣扬一个名为“丰田新全球架构”(Toyota New Global Architecture,简称TNGA)的项目,其中包含了一系列汽车技术(包括发动机)创新。作为这个项目的第一步,丰田将推出一款1.3升的四缸发动机和一款1.0升的三缸发动机,它们将采用一些先进技术来提高燃油效率,其中包括一种名为“阿特金森燃烧循环”(Atkinson burning cycle)的技术。在过去,这项技术仅被应用于丰田的油电混合动力发动机中。Toyota is following in other carmaker’s footsteps. Honda has introduced a line of high-efficiency engines it calls Earth Dreams, while the Mazda’s is called Skyactiv. (Nissan, with its Leaf, has made itself into a leader in battery-powered cars.) All are using technologies such as fuel injection and turbo charging to improve efficiency – sometimes at the expense of power or torque – and thus comply with increasingly stringent rules in the U.S. and abroad governing carbon emissions.丰田正在跟上其他汽车制造商的步伐。本田(Honda)推出了名为“地球之梦”(Earth Dreams)的高效节能系列发动机,马自达则推出了“创驰蓝天”(Skyactiv)系列发动机。【日产凭借聆风(Leaf)汽车成为电池动力汽车领域的领导者。】所有这些汽车制造商都在利用燃油喷射、涡轮增压等技术来提高燃料效率——有时甚至会以牺牲功率或扭矩为代价——从而符合美国和其他国家在碳排放方面日益严格的规章条例。“We would like to achieve No. 1 performance in fuel economy and cost for all the engines that we will be developing,” said Koei Saga, senior managing director in charge of engine and transmission development, in an interview with the Automotive News at Toyota’s global headquarters.丰田负责发动机和传动系统开发的高级经理佐贺光荣(Koei Saga)在公司全球总部接受《汽车新闻》(Automotive News)采访时表示:“我们希望在接下来将要开发的所有发动机上实现第一流的燃油经济性和成本效益。”Saga referred to the Japanese word kanzashi, a kind of ornamental hairpin to describe “add-on” technologies, such as recirculating exhaust from the engine to generate more power without burning more fuel.佐贺光荣用日语“髪挿”(即中文的“发簪”,一种装饰性发饰)一词来形容各种“扩展”技术,例如在不消耗更多燃料的情况下,通过发动机废气再循环产生更多动力。“We have a wide variety of kanzashi,” Saga told Automotive News.“我们有各式各样的髪挿,”佐贺告诉《汽车新闻》。Since redesigning engines and incorporating technology require substantial capital – Toyota hasn’t clarified how much – the cost must be recouped by saving elsewhere. Published reports suggest that Toyota will accomplish this feat by creating more common parts among engines.由于重新设计发动机并且整合技术需要大量资金(丰田并未说明具体数额),丰田必须在其他地方想办法省出这笔钱。已有诸多报道表明,丰田将会通过开发更多可在不同发动机间通用的部件来完成这项壮举。As the gasoline engines improve, so will the gas-electric hybrids that use them in tandem, said Andrew Coetzee, a Toyota spokesman. “Our engineers are excited,” he said, “and very eager to put every innovation on the road as fast as possible.”公司发言人安德鲁o库切表示,随着汽油发动机得到改进,油电混合动力发动机也会随之得到提升。他说:“我们的工程师都很兴奋,并迫不及待想让每一项创新技术尽快投入使用。”Full expression of TNGA, including redesigned suspensions and other systems that improve handling and drivability, may not be apparent in the U.S. for another two to three years, when Toyota is expected to introduce its newest generation Camry.TNGA项目还包括重新设计的悬架以及其他提升操控和驾驶体验的系统,而充分体现该项目成果的车型在近两三年还不会登陆美国市场,这段时间里丰田预计将推出最新一代凯美瑞(Camry)。Meantime, expect to see a spate of engines featuring higher fuel efficiency from Toyota, along with incremental improvements in other redesigned parts. The No. 1 automaker from Japan doesn’t intend to give up its title easily, and doesn’t seem content to sit in idle while competitors like Volkswagen races ahead.与此同时,我们预计将会看到丰田推出一系列具有较高燃油效率的发动机产品,以及在其他重新设计的部件上实现增量改进。这家日本汽车制造商并不打算轻易将自己的“全球第一”称号拱手让人,在德国大众汽车公司(Volkswagen )这样的竞争对手向前迈进时,丰田似乎并不甘于坐困愁城。 /201407/314739。

In July 2012, the Presidential election was kicking into high gear, the Olympics were about to begin, and most people thought it was a matter of time before shares of Apple hit ,000.2012年7月份,美国总统选举步入高潮,伦敦奥运会即将开幕,而大多数人都认为苹果(Apple)股价涨到1,000美元只是一个时间问题。Google (GOOG), meanwhile, was just muddling along. After doubling during 2009, its stock had been ting water around 0 a share for three and a half years. Apple (AAPL), too was trading around 0 a share, but the iPhone 5 was coming and the company Steve Jobs built seemed to have the wind at its back.与此同时,谷歌(Google)股票可谓“虚度光阴”。在2009年股价翻倍之后,谷歌股票在随后三年半的时间里一直徘徊在600美元上下。去年7月份,苹果股价也处于600美元左右,但iPhone 5即将推出,而乔布斯缔造的苹果公司似乎正一帆风顺。Oh, how things have changed since then. Apple#39;s stock has fallen 29% since mid-July. And Google? It#39;s gained 46%, pushing past the 0 milestone while Apple languishes near 4 a share. Apple is tussling with investors over whether to pay more dividends, while Google rallies merrily on.哦,自那以后,情势发生了多大的变化啊。 自去年7月中旬以来,苹果股价已经下跌了29%。而谷歌呢?它的股价上涨了46%,突破了800美元大关,而苹果却趴在424美元附近。苹果正在与投资者就是否增加派发股息的问题进行争斗,而谷歌股票则在欢快上涨。There has been a lot of discussion over Apple#39;s decline in recent months, and comparatively less about Google#39;s corresponding rise. But the difference in between the two boils down to this: Apple is increasingly seen as coming off one of the greatest runs in the history of Silicon Valley. And Google may just be at the start of one.近几个月以来,人们对于苹果股价下跌展开了许多讨论,而相对而言,对于谷歌相应的上涨却较少讨论。但两者之间的这个差异可归结为这点:苹果创造了硅谷历史上科技公司业绩增长最辉煌的一个阶段,但现在人们越来越倾向于认为,这个阶段已经结束,而谷歌可能正处于这样一个阶段的开始。That is the new image of Google after two quarters of impressive earnings and more signs that the company is laying plans for long-term growth. ;Looking at the consumer technology world over the next 10 to 20 years, we believe Google is far and away the best-positioned company,; wrote Gene Munster, an influential tech analyst at Piper Jaffray.这就是谷歌在连续两个季度获得不俗业绩——而且有更多迹象表明该公司正在制定长期发展计划——之后给人留下的新形象。“展望未来一二十年的消费科技领域,我们认为谷歌无疑是占据最佳优势的公司,”投资派杰(Piper Jaffray)颇具影响力的科技产业分析师吉恩?蒙斯特写道。Munster pointed not to search or other advertising, which still accounts for 87% of the company#39;s revenue, but to new ventures that have yet to hit the market, like Google Glass and self-driving cars, which he called one of Google#39;s ;biggest opportunities in the next 10 years.;蒙斯特话中指的并不是搜索或其他广告业务(这部分业务在谷歌的营收中仍占据87%的份额),而是指那些还没有投入市场的新开发项目,比如谷歌眼镜和无人驾驶汽车——他称后者为谷歌“未来十年最大的机遇之一。”Compare that with Apple, which is seeing its share of the smartphone and tablet market erode over time as lower-margin, lower-cost Android rivals sell more products, and as Apple responds with its own lower-margin products like the iPad Mini.与此相比,苹果看到自己在智能手机和平板电脑领域的市场份额正在随着时间的推移而逐渐缩水,同时那些低利润、低成本、采用安卓移动操作系统的竞争对手则提高了产品的销量,而且苹果也在推出迷你iPad等自己的低利润产品予以反击。Although Apple infamously holds its cards close to its vest, it#39;s working on its own new products -- some that could create an entirely new category like the rumored iWatch. Apple is also taking time to create a new TV device. Such new products could offer Apple new areas of growth -- the iWatch alone could produce billion in revenue -- and beef up the company#39;s profit margins to levels that would impress investors again.虽然苹果素来以守口如瓶著称,但我们知道,它正在开发自己的几款新产品——有些可能会形成一个全新的产品类别,比如传闻中的智能手表iWatch。此外,苹果还在投入时间开发一款新的电视产品。这样的新产品可为苹果提供新的增长领域——仅iWatch就可产生60亿美元的营收,而且可把该公司的利润率提升到再次给投资者留下深刻印象的水平。For now, however, sentiment is against Apple and strongly in favor of Google. This week, more analysts have joined the Google ,000 club, citing other factors that could propel the stock higher in the coming year. Jeffries amp; Co. argued that a four-digit price is possible, given improvements in the Motorola handset business and non-search areas such as YouTube and commerce initiatives. Perhaps more encouraging, clickthrough rates on mobile ads are rising, Jeffries analyst Brian Pitz wrote.然而,目前投资者并不看好苹果,相反却强烈看好谷歌。上周,更多的分析师认为谷歌股价将会上涨至1,000美元,他们认为其他一些因素可能会在未来几年内推高谷歌股价。投资杰富瑞公司(Jeffries amp; Co.)认为,考虑到托罗拉手机业务的业绩改善、YouTube等非搜索领域以及电子商务计划,谷歌股价可能会上涨至四位数。或许更令人鼓舞的消息是,移动广告的点击率正在持续攀升,杰富瑞公司(Jefferies)分析师布莱恩?皮兹如是写道。How deserved is this reversal of fortune between Apple and Google#39;s stocks? Perhaps not as much as the stock charts might suggest. For much of the three years when Google was trading around 0 a share, it was subject to speculation that, first, it couldn#39;t thrive in the era of Facebook (FB), and then later uncertainty around the new CEO Larry Page. The effectiveness of Page#39;s bold steps are only now becoming apparent to investors.苹果和谷歌股票之间的这种运势逆转有多少合理的成分呢?实际情况或许并不是股票走势图可能展现出来的模样。过去三年谷歌股票徘徊于600美元附近的大部分时间里,人们一直存在如下的猜测:首先,谷歌无法在以Facebook为代表的社会化媒体时代实现繁荣发展,之后人们对谷歌联合创始人拉里?佩奇出任首席执行官的表现没有把握。对于投资者而言,佩奇实施的一系列大胆举措直到现在才显现出其预期效果。Apple, meanwhile, was riding a multi-year wave of bullishness and strong earnings growth that was driven by the iPhone and iPad. Those two products took years to conceive, design, and execute into the products we know. One thing that is certain about Apple -- it#39;s not sitting quietly counting its pile of cash. It#39;s trying to design new category-defining products. The real question is whether those products will resonate with consumers the way the iPad has.与此同时,苹果已被投资者持续看涨多年,而且在iPhone和iPad的推动下,它的盈利增长表现强劲。这两款产品经过了多年的构思、设计以及执行,才形成我们如今所知道的产品。对于苹果,我们可以确定一件事,那就是它不会静静地坐在那里,数着自己积累起来的巨额现金。这家公司正在设法设计自创类别的新产品。真正的问题在于,这些产品是否会像iPad那样,得到消费者的认可和共鸣。In other words, there are real, fundamental changes going on at both of these companies, but the effects of those changes are greatly enhanced in the stock performance. Just as Google was underappreciated two years ago, so Apple could be today. Just as Apple was revered with blind bullishness then, so Google is at risk of being overvalued if it does reach ,000 too quickly.换句话说,这两家公司都正在发生着一些实实在在的根本性变化,但这些变化的影响正在各自的股票表现中被显著放大。正如两年前谷歌失宠那样,苹果今天可能也是如此。正如那时那些盲目乐观的投资者极力推崇苹果那样,如果谷歌股价过快上涨到1,000美元的话,它现在就面临着股票估值偏高的风险。That doesn#39;t mean Google is doomed or that Apple is set to rebound quickly. Both of these companies are going to have, at different times, their fallow periods as well as their blowout earnings reports. Both are going to keep working on projects that will offer growth for investors with a long-term focus.并不是说谷歌在劫难逃,也不是说苹果股价马上就会反弹。这两家公司都将在不同的时候经历无所作为的低谷时期以及盈利报告大幅超预期的高潮时期。这两家公司都将注重于长期发展策略,继续开发为投资者提供增长前景的项目。But for now, consider that Google is trading at 18 times its expected earnings this year, double the ratio for Apple. That shouldn#39;t surprise anyone, but it also suggests that the recent reversal of fortunes making financial headlines today are priced into both of these tech giants. What is much less certain is where they will both be in a year or so from now.但现在,考虑到谷歌目前股价已达到其今年每股预期收益的18倍,是苹果的两倍。这个数字不应该有任何人会感到意外,但它同时也表明,这两家公司最近成为财经头版新闻的运势逆转已反映在这两家科技巨头的股价上。现在难以确定的是,一年左右的时间之后,这两只股票各自又会处于什么价位。 /201303/229675。

More than 350,000 gamers from across Europe (and some from North America and Asia) have made the annual pilgrimage to the quaint German city of Cologne, which has a population of just over 1 million. Activision used the convention to debut its multiplayer gameplay for Sledgehammer Games’ Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare, allowing attendees hands-on access to the November 3 release.超过35万的欧洲玩家(还有一些北美和亚洲玩家)带着朝圣般的心情,赶赴人口刚过100万的德国科隆市,参加一年一度的游戏盛会。美国动视(Activision)在展览中首次公布了Sledgehammer Games工作室的多人游戏《使命召唤:高级战争》(Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare),现场玩家亲身体验了这款将于11月3日正式发布的游戏。The global battle for the living room continued in Germany with Sony announcing it 2has sold 10 million PlayStation 4s worldwide. To keep that momentum going, Sony announced a number of exclusive new titles at the show, including the action game Hellblade from developer Ninja Theory, the open world adventure game Wild from Rayman creator Michel Ancel, the shooter Alienation from Housemarque, and Q Games genre-bending The Tomorrow Children. Microsoft announced that Square Enix and Crystal Dynamics Rise of the Tomb Raider, the second game in the rebooted Lara Croft franchise, will be an Xbox exclusive in 2015. Xbox will also be getting another big sequel next year with Halo 5: Guardians.索尼(Sony)宣布,其游戏主机Playstation 4s已经在全球售出超过1,000万台,这预示着对玩家客厅的争夺战今年将继续上演。为了维持增长态势,索尼在展会上发布了一系列独家游戏,包括Ninja Theory开发的动作游戏《地狱之刃》(Hellblade),《雷曼》(Rayman)制作商Michel Ancel开发的开放世界式冒险游戏《荒野》(Wild),Housemarque开发的射击类游戏《异化》(Alienation)以及Q版游戏《明日之子》(The Tomorrow Children)。微软则发布了由Square Enix和Crystal Dynamics制作的《古墓丽影:崛起》(Rise of the Tomb Raider),这是劳拉o克罗夫系列重新启动后的第二部作品,将在2015年于Xbox平台独家发布。Xbox在2015年还有另外一款游戏大作的续集《光晕5:守护者》(Halo 5: Guardians)。One of the more unique games announced at Gamescom was Silent Hills, the latest sequel in Konami’s bestselling horror franchise (which has also spawned two films). The world of gaming and movies combine in this new game, which is being developed by Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain creator Hideo Kojima and Pacific Rim director Guillermo del Toro. The game will star The Walking Dead’s Norman Reedus.而在科隆游戏展上正式宣布的特色作品中,《寂静岭》(Silent Hills)的最新续集赫然在列。这是科乐美(Konami)最为畅销的恐怖题材游戏(还据此改编成了两部电影)。世界级游戏和电影专家,《合金装备5:幻痛》(Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain)的制作者小岛秀夫,以及《环太平洋》(Pacific Rim)的导演吉尔莫o德尔o托罗在这部游戏中强强联手。曾出演美剧《行尸走肉》(The Walking Dead)的影星诺曼o瑞杜斯将在游戏中担纲主角。Here are our top picks for games that debuted at Gamescom 2014.以下是我们精选的本届科隆游戏展最值得关注的新游戏。Life Is Strange《生活真奇怪》Developer:Dontnod Entertainment, Square Enix开发商:Dontnod Entertainment、Square EnixConsoles: Xbox One, Xbox 360, PS4, PS4, PC游戏平台:Xbox One、Xbox 360、PS4、PS3 、PCRelease date: 2015发布日期:2015年In some ways, Life Is Strange couldn’t be more different than Dontnod Entertainment’s sci-fi action game Remember Me, but in other ways, the episodic adventure game is similar. Both games use Unreal Engine 3 technology to create beautiful worlds to explore. And both titles also feature a strong female protagonist. Set in Arcadia Bay, Oregon, players take control of teenager Max Caulfield and embark on an adventure that will span five interactive episodes.从某些方面来看,《生活真奇怪》(Life Is Strange)与Dontnod Entertainment的科幻动作类游戏《勿忘我》(Remember Me)是两款截然不同的游戏,而从另一些方面来看,这两款章节式的冒险游戏十分类似。两款游戏都采用了虚幻3引擎(Unreal Engine 3),打造了美轮美奂的游戏世界供玩家探索。这两款游戏的名字也都有非常具有女性特征的主角。《生活真奇怪》的故事发生于美国俄勒冈州的阿卡迪亚湾,玩家将操纵青年马克斯o考菲尔德,开始一段包含有五个章节互动剧情的冒险。Along with her friend Chloe, Max is out to uncover the truth behind the mysterious disappearance of fellow student Rachel Amber. With an indie-film feel and an eclectic soundtrack, Life Is Strange stands out from other games by blending the angst of being a teenage girl today with life-and-death situations, and the ability to rewind time. While this gameplay mechanic has been used in many games before, this take on time manipulation feels as unique as the American characters the French developer has created.马克斯将与她的朋友克洛伊一起,揭开她的同学雷切尔o安布尔神秘失踪背后的真相。游戏具有电影的体验感,配有不拘一格的原声,将当下年轻女孩的焦虑与生死攸关的情境结合了起来,再加上了时光倒流的能力,这一切使得这款游戏脱颖而出。尽管该作品中采用的机制在其他游戏中曾经用过,但由法国开发商制作的美国风格游戏,还是让这种定时操作有耳目一新的感觉。Quantum Break《量子破碎》Developer: Remedy Entertainment, Microsoft Studios开发商:Remedy Entertainment、Microsoft StudiosConsoles: Xbox One游戏平台:Xbox OneRelease date: 2015发布日期:2015年Helsinki-based developer Remedy Entertainment has blurred the line between Hollywood and games with previous incarnations Max Payne and Alan Wake. Now the studio is combining next-generation visuals with the tension and drama of scripted television. Set in the university town of Riverport, Quantum Break puts players in control of Jack Joyce and Beth Wilder, a pair of ordinary people who are given the extraordinary power to manipulate time after an accident that creates a time rift. Time will randomly break down during the game, which causes disasters in the environment that pause, stutter, rewind and freeze. Fans of Max Payne’s bullet time will see new strategies emerge with gunfights involving time-amplified combat as the player fights against the Monarch Corporation. In addition to the virtual storyline, the game features custom live action storytelling that’s personalized based on the decisions one makes.位于芬兰赫尔辛基的开发商Remedy Entertainment通过之前的作品《英雄本色》(Max Payne)和《心灵杀手》(Alan Wake)模糊了好莱坞和游戏之间的界限。如今,这家工作室将次世代的图像技术与紧张气氛和电视剧剧本结合了起来。故事设置在Riverport大学城,玩家将控制杰克o乔伊斯和贝斯o怀尔德。这两人原本是普通人,但在一次导致时间裂缝的意外中,他们获得了操纵时间的超能力。在游戏过程中,时间体系会随时崩溃,导致环境中的时间暂停、断续、倒流和冻结。玩家在游戏中会与帝王联盟(Monarch Corporation)展开对抗,喜欢《英雄本色》中子弹时刻的玩家,可以在放大时间因素的战中寻找新的战略。除了虚拟的故事情节,游戏还采用了定制的实景真人叙事模式,根据玩家的不同选择将产生不同的后果。ScreamRide《ScreamRide》Developer: Frontier, Microsoft Studios开发商:Frontier、Microsoft StudiosConsoles: Xbox One, Xbox 360游戏平台:Xbox One, Xbox 360Release date: Spring 2015发布日期:2015年春季The developer behind Kinect Disneyland Adventures and Elite: Dangerous is taking the theme park business to the extreme in ScreamRide. The game lets players build outrageous roller coasters, thrill rides and attractions from the ground up and then take them for a test run. The game offers three ways to play: Engineers can construct elaborate rides that test the boundaries of physics and g-forces; Scream Riders get on these rides and experience the thrills and spills first-hand – sometimes resulting in untimely deaths; and Demolition Experts can use any means necessary to tear down an entire amusement park. With classic PC games like Roller Coaster Tycoon now playable on smartphones, this next generation of thrill-ride creator is a welcome interactive experience. It’s always fun to build, ride and destroy roller coasters – and ScreamRide offers plenty of ways to share the thrills with your friends.为Kinect开发《迪斯尼乐园大冒险》(Disneyland Adventures)和《精英:危险》(Elite: Dangerous)的开发商在ScreamRide中,将主题乐园经营发挥到了极致。玩家可以在游戏中建立夸张的过山车、云霄飞车和其他游乐设施,并进行试运营。游戏有三种玩法:工程师可以建设复杂的飞车,测试物理和重力极限;“尖叫骑手”则乘坐这些飞车,直接体验这种惊险与刺激——这有时会直接导致游戏人物死亡;而拆除专家可以用任何必要手段拆掉整个游乐园。随着《过山车大亨》(Roller Coaster Tycoon)等电脑游戏移植到了智能手机上,这一款次世代的过山车游戏可以让玩家有着时尚的互动体验。建设、体验和拆除过山车总是很有趣的,而ScreamRide则提供了多种方式,让你与朋友们共享这种兴奋之情。Until Dawn《静待黎明》Developer: Supermassive Games, Sony Computer Entertainment开发商:Supermassive Games、Sony Computer EntertainmentConsoles: PlayStation 4游戏平台:PlayStation 4Release date: 2015发布日期:2015年Yelling at the screen to tell the female protagonist not to go downstairs alone at night will no longer be futile. In this interactive horror game, you control all the action. The story, which was crafted by filmmakers Larry Fessenden and Graham Reznick alongside game developers Supermassive Games, traps eight friends in a remote mountain getaway with a psycho on the loose. The game stars a Hollywood cast that includes Brett Dalton (Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D), Hayden Panettiere (Nashville) and Rami Malek (Need for Speed). Players will take control of each of the characters as they explore the creepy world and try to survive until dawn. No one is safe from death. And every choice made in the game will result in a different experience. The script was over a thousand pages long, opening up hundreds of different endings for players to explore. The Butterfly Effect technology ensures that no two games will be played the same. The one constant is that the game is scary. Don’t play this one alone or in the dark.在屏幕前对女主人公大喊“不要在深夜独自下楼”,不再是徒劳无用的了。在这款互动式惊悚游戏中,玩家可以控制游戏人物的行动。游戏的剧情由电影制片人拉里o法森顿和格拉哈姆o雷兹尼克与游戏开发商Supermassive Games精心打造。故事中,八位好友被困在遥远的山区度假村,还有一名不受限制的精神病人。游戏群星云集,其中包含《神盾局特工》(Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D)的演员布雷特o道顿,美剧《纳什维尔》(Nashville)的演员海顿o潘妮蒂尔和《极品飞车》(Need for Speed)的演员拉米o马雷克。玩家将控制各个角色探索这个恐怖的世界,试图在黎明到来时存活下来。没有人是安全的。在游戏中,每一个决定都会导致不同的结果。游戏剧本长达一千余页,拥有数百个不同结局等待玩家发掘。蝴蝶效应使得游戏不会有相同的剧情,而唯一不变的是,这款游戏十分惊悚。不要独自一人或是在深夜里尝试它。 /201408/323627。

Investors for years have been searching in vain for a formula to replicate Warren Buffett#39;s legendary returns over the past 50 years.多年来,投资者一直在寻找一套公式,以图复制沃伦#12539;巴菲特(Warren Buffett)50年取得的神奇回报,但都徒劳无功。The wait could be over.或许不必再找了。A new study that claims to have uncovered this formula was published last month by the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Mass. Its authors, all of whom have strong academic credentials, work for AQR Capital Management, a firm that manages several hedge funds and other investment offerings and has billion in assets.马萨诸塞州坎布里奇国家经济研究局(National Bureau of Economic Research)11月份发表一项新研究成果,声称找到了这套公式。论文作者都有深厚的学术资历,他们供职的AQR资产管理公司(AQR Capital Management)管理着多只对冲基金和其他一些投资产品,资产规模达900亿美元。The study#39;s authors analyzed Mr. Buffett#39;s record since he acquired Berkshire Hathaway in 1964. Their formula, which has more than a dozen individual components, comes in two major parts.论文作者分析了巴菲特从1964年收购伯克希尔#12539;哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)以来的投资成绩。他们的公式含有十多个单项,可以归纳为两个主要部分。The first is a #39;focus on cheap, safe, quality stocks,#39; defined as those that have exhibited below-average volatility and sport low ratios of price-to-book value -- a measure of net worth. In addition, the researchers looked for stocks whose profits are growing at an above-average pace and that pay out a significant portion of their earnings as dividends.第一部分是“专注于便宜、安全、优质的股票”,即波动性低于平均水平、股价与每股账面价值之比(市净率,一种净值衡量指标)不高的股票。除此以外,研究人员还看好利润增长高于平均速度、相当大一部分利润当作股息派发出去的股票。The second part of the formula will raise eyebrows: It calls for investing in these stocks #39;on margin#39; -- that is, borrowing money to buy more shares than could otherwise be purchased. To match Mr. Buffett#39;s long-term return, the researchers found, a portfolio would need to be 60% on margin -- borrowing enough so that it owned 0 of #39;cheap, safe, quality stocks#39; for every 0 of portfolio value.公式的第二部分将会令人错愕:它要求用“保金交易”来投资这些股票,也就是借钱买股,买进的数量比不借钱能够买到的更多。研究人员发现,要达到巴菲特那样的长期回报,投资组合需要有60%的借入比例,也就是说,借款比例足以让每100美元的投资组合持有160美元“便宜、安全、优质的股票”。Andrea Frazzini, one of the study#39;s authors, a finance professor at New York University and a vice president at AQR, said the Berkshire portfolio has, on average, been leveraged to a similar extent through Mr. Buffett#39;s career.论文作者之一、纽约大学(New York University)金融学教授、AQR公司副总裁安德烈亚#12539;弗拉奇尼 (Andrea Frazzini)说,在巴菲特整个职业生涯中,伯克希尔投资组合的平均杠杆率一直与上述水平相当。It can be easy to overlook the extent of this leverage, since Mr. Buffett is able to borrow from other parts of his business. But that doesn#39;t mean the company isn#39;t still leveraged, Mr. Frazzini argues. According to its most recent annual report, for example, the total value of Berkshire#39;s holdings are double the company#39;s net worth, implying that its current leverage is about 2-to-1 -- somewhat higher than its long-term average.这样的杠杆率很容易被忽略,因为巴菲特可以从他公司的其他部门借款。但弗拉奇尼说,这并不意味着该公司就没有杠杆了。比如从最近年报来看,伯克希尔的持股总值是其净值的两倍,说明它当前的杠杆率约为2比1──比它的长期平均水平还要高一些。Employing margin can magnify profits, of course. It also increases potential losses when things go wrong. But note that the formula combines a heavy use of margin with stocks that tend to be much less risky than the market, so the net result can still be a portfolio that is no riskier than the market as a whole.采用保金交易当然可以放大利润。当行情不妙的时候,它也会增加潜在损失。但请注意,前面说的那套公式是将保金交易的大量使用同风险远低于市场的股票结合,所以综合来看的话,投资组合的风险仍然可以不高于大市。To be sure, a heavily margined portfolio will always run the risk of getting a #39;margin call#39; -- the need to come up with additional cash -- if its holdings fall too far. Berkshire Hathaway has been able to sidestep that risk over the last 50 years. Despite a heavily reliance on leverage, its worst return in any calendar year was a loss of 9.6%. And its book value has been less volatile than the Samp;P 500. Volatility is a common measure of a portfolio#39;s risk.无可否认的是,大量使用保金交易的投资组合始终存在收到“追加保金通知”的风险──如果所持资产跌幅太大,那么就要存入更多的现金。伯克希尔#12539;哈撒韦在过去50年里一直能够避开这种风险。虽然严重依赖于杠杆,其自然年度最差的回报率也就是亏损9.6%。而且其账面价值的波动性也低于标准普尔500种股票指数(Samp;P 500)。波动性是衡量投资组合风险的一个常用指标。One factor that is conspicuous in its absence from the formula is anything to account for Mr. Buffett#39;s significant investments in privately owned companies. But that isn#39;t necessary, according to the researchers, because the public companies in which he has invested have outperformed the private ones.公式中明显缺失的一个因素,是它没有解释巴菲特为什么大量投资非上市公司。但研究人员说,这没有必要,因为他所投上市公司的表现好于非上市公司。This is somewhat surprising, given that Mr. Buffett has often trumpeted his abilities to pick good managers. Yet the researchers nevertheless find that his #39;returns are more due to stock selection than to his effect on management.#39; (A Berkshire Hathaway spokeswoman said that Mr. Buffett declined to be interviewed.)考虑到巴菲特常常鼓吹他挑选优秀管理人员的能力,这一点多少让人吃惊。但研究人员还是发现,其回报“更多地源于选股,而非他对管理层的影响”。(伯克希尔#12539;哈撒韦发言人表示巴菲特不接受采访。)Lasse Pedersen, another of the study#39;s authors, a finance professor at New York University and a principal at AQR, stressed that Mr. Buffett still deserves plenty of credit. After all, he says, it has taken years for researchers to come up with a formula that, after the fact, does as well as Mr. Buffett has been doing for nearly 50 years. In addition, he had the discipline to stick to his approach through both thick and thin.论文的另一名作者、纽约大学金融学教授、AQR主要负责人之一拉斯#12539;佩德森(Lasse Pedersen)强调,巴菲特并非浪得虚名。他说,毕竟研究人员花了数年时间才总结出一套“马后炮”表现与巴菲特近50年投资成绩相当的公式。除此以外,他还拥有不论丰歉都坚守既定方针的自控力。Unfortunately, the investment formula that the researchers devised isn#39;t necessarily easy for individual investors to follow. It requires investing in a large and diversified basket of stocks, for example. Furthermore, adhering to the formula can be challenging for a portfolio that relies on margin.不幸的是,研究人员总结出来的这套投资公式散户应用起来不一定容易。比如它要求投资一大篮子多样化的股票。另外,对于一个依靠保金交易的投资组合来说,坚守这套公式也有可能遇到挑战。Nevertheless, it may be possible for you to at least partially follow the researchers#39; formula without actually resorting to borrowed money. If you have cash in your portfolio, for example, you could add it to the portion you aly have allocated to equities-achieving the equivalent of going on margin by, in effect, #39;borrowing#39; from yourself. This, of course, is what Mr. Buffett does by borrowing from other parts of his business.但是,你或许还是能够在不借钱的情况下至少部分地运用研究人员总结出的这套公式。比如,如果你的投资组合里面有现金,你可以把这些现金加到已经配置于股市的那部分中去。这在事实上是自己给自己借钱,也就相当于做保金交易。巴菲特从他公司的其他部门借钱,当然也就是这种办法。Even if you decide not to follow the researchers#39; investment formula precisely, this new study has important investment implications. For example, since the study#39;s authors find that Mr. Buffett#39;s record is due to #39;neither luck nor magic,#39; Berkshire#39;s performance need not suffer after Mr. Buffett retires -- so long as his successor is able to do just as good a job picking stocks.即使你决定不完全按照研究人员的投资公式去做,这项新研究也有着重要的投资含义。比如论文作者发现巴菲特的成绩“既不是因为运气,也不是因为魔力”,所以如果继任者的选股能力跟他一样好,伯克希尔在巴菲特退休之后的表现就不一定很差。That#39;s a pretty big #39;if,#39; of course, but the researchers#39; findings imply that a strict adherence to the same investment principles could, over time, do as well as Mr. Buffett has done historically.当然这个“如果”是个很大的假设,但研究人员的发现意味着,如果严格遵守同样投资原则的话,随着时间的推移,投资成绩是可以达到巴菲特的历史水平的。The study also holds out the tantalizing possibility that an investor following the formula can perform even better than Berkshire. That#39;s because, as Mr. Buffett has pointed out, his portfolio has grown so large that it will be difficult for it to perform as well in the future. In contrast, a smaller portfolio can profit from investing in stocks that are too small to make any meaningful difference to Berkshire#39;s bottom line.另外,这项研究也展示了一种撩拨人心的可能性:遵守这套公式的投资者甚至可以取得比伯克希尔还要好的成绩。因为巴菲特自己也说过,他的投资组合已经变得十分庞大,将来会很难拥有同样的表现。相比之下,规模更小的投资组合可以投资于因为太小、不足以给伯克希尔利润表现带来实质性改变的股票,从而获利。The following stocks from within the Samp;P 1500 index score favorably along each of the five dimensions that the researchers employ in defining #39;cheap, safe, quality stocks,#39; according to FactSet. The ratios of their prices to per-share book values are below average, as are their #39;betas#39; -- a measure of the extent to which their prices move in lock step with the overall market.据FactSet说,以下取自标准普尔1500种股票指数(Samp;P 1500)的股票非常符合研究人员在定义“便宜、安全、优质股票”时确定的五个维度。它们的价格相对于每股账面价值的比率低于平均水平,衡量股价与大市联动程度的“beta系数”也低于平均水平。In addition, these stocks are of companies whose #39;profitability#39; -- or total profits as a percentage of assets -- is above average, as is the five-year growth rate of that profitability. And, finally, these stocks are of firms whose dividends represent an above-average proportion of their earnings.除此以外,这些股票代表的公司“盈利能力”(总利润除以资产总额)高于平均水平,“盈利能力”五年增长率也高于平均水平。最后,这些股票所代表公司的派息额占其利润的比重也高于平均水平。Examples include drug retailer CVS Caremark; Devry Education Group, a for-profit education company; chipmaker Intel, Owens amp; Minor, a medical-supplies distributor; grocery distributor Spartan Stores; and Vectren, an energy holding company.这些股票包括:药品零售企业CVS Caremark;营利性教育企业Devry Education Group;芯片制造企业英特尔(Intel);医药用品经销商Owens amp; Minor;百货经销企业Spartan Stores;能源控股公司Vectren。Though there are no mutual funds that pick stocks according to the precise formula the researchers devise, several come close. One is offered by AQR: the U.S. Defensive Equity Fund, with an annual 0.51% expense ratio, or for every ,000 invested. Though the fund has a high minimum for those investing in it directly, it is available to investors through their financial advisers.虽然没有哪只共同基金是完全根据研究人员总结的公式来选股,但也有好几只比较接近。有一只是AQR销售的“防守型美股基金”(U.S. Defensive Equity Fund),年费率0.51%,即投资1万美元要交51美元的费用。这只基金为直接投资的人设定了一个很高的最低额度,但投资者可以通过他们的投资顾问机构来投资。Another fund that focuses on some of the same stock-picking methods is the DFA US Large Cap Equity Portfolio. It is available to individuals only through their financial advisers or certain retirement and 529 plans, and fees vary.另一只侧重于上述一部分选股方法的基金是“DFA大盘美股投资组合”(DFA US Large Cap Equity Portfolio)。散户只能通过投资顾问机构或某些退休金计划、529大学储蓄计划来投资,费率各有差别。The exchange-traded fund that perhaps come closest to following the researchers#39; stock-picking methodology is iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor, with an expense ratio of 0.15%. It invests in stocks with a high return on equity and stable earnings growth.最接近研究人员选股方法的交易所交易基金,可能是“iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor”。费率为0.15%。它投资的是净资产收益率高、利润增长稳定的股票。 /201312/270455。

GOOGLE Inc is shutting its online music download service in the Chinese mainland next month because of pressure from local rivals such as Baidu Inc and Tencent#39;s QQ.由于来自本土竞争对手如百度公司和腾讯QQ的压力,谷歌公司下个月将在中国大陆关闭其在线音乐下载务。The service, available only to computers with an Internet address in the mainland, will close on October 19. Users of Music Search will be able to log in and download their stored playlists until then, Google said yesterday.这项仅限于在大陆有互联网地址的电脑的务,将在10月19日关闭。谷歌昨天表示,一直到那个时候音乐搜索用户都能登录并下载他们存储的播放列表。;This is part of an ongoing effort across Google to bring greater focus to our portfolio of products. Our goal is to simplify and improve the Google experience for our users and to devote more resources to high impact products that improve the lives of billions of people,; Google said in a statement.“这是谷歌不断努力以更专注于我们产品组合的一部分。我们的目标是为用户简化和改善搜索体验,为高影响力产品投入更多的资源以改善数十亿人的生活。”谷歌在一份声明中说道。In its Chinese-language company blog, the US-based search giant admitted that the music website#39;s impact had been ;less than expected.;在公司的中文客上,总部设在美国的搜索引擎巨头承认音乐网站的影响力已经“低于预期”。As with Google#39;s core online search business, the music service found it difficult to compete with its domestic rivals.与谷歌核心的网上搜索业务相比,它的音乐务发现很难与国内竞争对手相匹敌。By the end of second quarter, Google had 15.7 percent of the online search market in China, the world#39;s biggest Internet market with 538 million computer users. That was far behind market leader Baidu, which had a 78.6 percent market share, according to Analysys International, a Beijing-based IT research firm.到第二季度末,在中国这个有着538万台计算机用户的世界上最大的互联网市场,谷歌已经占领了15.7%的在线搜索市场。根据《易观国际》(总部设在北京的IT市场研究公司),这远远落后于市场领头羊百度,它有78.6%的市场份额。Google#39;s market share declined from more than 30 percent to 15 percent after it moved its China servers from the mainland to Hong Kong in 2010.自从2010年谷歌将其在中国的务器从大陆转移到香港,它的市场份额从30%以上下降到了15%。Google#39;s music website made its debut three years ago, offering free and legal music content to Chinese consumers.三年前谷歌音乐网站首次亮相,为中国消费者提供免费且合法的音乐内容。Later, Baidu and Tencent began similar services which gradually came to dominate the domestic online music market.后来,百度和腾讯开始了类似的务,逐渐主导了国内在线音乐市场。 /201209/201346。