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泉州治疗盆腔性不孕那个较好搜医爱问安溪流产价格

2019年09月18日 01:15:57    日报  参与评论()人

泉州泉港无痛人流需要多少钱泉州人工流产手术的价格He was supposed to be the dictator no one would ever miss. Treacherous and volatile, Muammer Gaddafi had far less diplomatic value than his neighbour, President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, a dependable western ally. He did not compare to Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia, whose obsessive secularism had its attraction, too. And he could not compete even with Yemen’s Ali Abdullah Saleh, who at least had a sharp sense of humour.他理应是无人怀念的独裁者。穆阿迈尔#8226;卡扎菲(Muammer Gaddafi)狡诈且喜怒无常,他的外交价值远远低于其邻国埃及前总统、西方的可靠盟友胡斯尼#8226;穆巴拉克(Hosni Mubarak)。他也比不上突尼斯的宰因#8226;阿比丁#8226;本#8226;阿里(Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali),后者对世俗主义的注重有其吸引力。他甚至都比不上也门的阿里#8226;阿卜杜拉#8226;萨利赫(Ali Abdullah Saleh),后者至少有很强的幽默感。By the time the Arab revolutions erupted in 2011, Gaddafi had not a single friend left in the Middle East, and only a few beyond. Even though he gave up his mischief in later years — surrendering his arsenal of weapons of mass destruction, for example — no one knew whether or when he would be back to his old terrorist tricks. So as his troops prepared for an assault on the eastern city of Benghazi — whose people had risen against him — Nato bombs rained down on them, paving the way for the dictator’s demise. The reaction was, broadly, good riddance.到2011年阿拉伯革命爆发时,卡扎菲在中东没有一个朋友(在地区以外有几个)。即使在执政后期他不再制造祸端(例如放弃他的大规模杀伤性武器),但没人知道他是否——或者何时——会重拾老一套的恐怖主义把戏。因此,当他的军队准备进攻东部城市班加西(那里的人民奋起反抗他)时,北约(NATO)的炸弹像雨点般落向了他们,为这位独裁者的灭亡铺平了道路。世人对此的普遍反应是,他走了最好。And yet, barely four years on, there are many in Europe who quietly wish the mad colonel — killed by rebels in late 2011 — was still running things in Tripoli. Such is EU angst over the Mediterranean migrant crisis — where as many as 1,200 people have drowned crossing to Europe in recent weeks — that Gaddafi is held up as the one man able to keep boat people away from European shores.然而,仅仅4年后,许多欧洲人却在默默希望这位疯子上校(2011年末被叛军处死)仍在的黎波里管理这个国家。欧盟对地中海移民危机的焦虑(最近几周,多达1200名偷渡欧洲的移民在地中海溺亡)如此严重,以至于有人把卡扎菲抬出来,称他本来是唯一能够让船民远离欧洲海岸的人。There is plenty of scope for regret when one looks back at the Arab uprisings, and particularly at the catastrophe that has befallen Libya, which is riven by sectarian strife. But the tragic loss of life at sea in recent weeks is no excuse to be nostalgic about Gaddafi, or to long for the return of his iron grip.当回首阿拉伯起义时,有很多令人遗憾的地方,尤其是降临利比亚的灾难,这个国家正被教派冲突撕裂。但是,最近几周发生的移民葬身地中海的悲剧,绝不是怀念卡扎菲、或者渴望他的铁腕统治回归的借口。Yes, Libya is a failed state and a haven for human traffickers. It is a mess that no one should think will be resolved by the current UN-backed peace process between its warring militias. There is no one in charge that the EU can credibly work with to stem the flow of illegal migration.没错,利比亚是一个失败国家、蛇头们的天堂。没人会认为当前联合国在各派武装分子之间斡旋的和平进程能解决这个国家的烂摊子。利比亚没有任何掌权者可让欧盟与其展开靠谱的合作,共同阻止非法移民流动。But it is useful to remember that Nato intervened in Libya in March 2011 to prevent another unfolding tragedy: the likely massacre of hundreds of thousands of Benghazi residents. The European and Arab mistake was to overestimate the will or ability of Libyans, in the aftermath of Gaddafi’s fall, to put the broken pieces of their country back together.但值得记住的是,2011年3月北约对利比亚的干预是为了阻止另一起即将发生的悲剧:数十万班加西居民可能遭到屠杀。欧洲和阿拉伯国家的错误在于,他们高估了利比亚人民在卡扎菲倒台后重建国家的意志或能力。Left on their own after a bloody revolt in which the state collapsed and everyone took up arms, they embraced their freedom with bullets as much as ballots. A fair question to ask is whether more could have been done to help them.结果,利比亚人在经历一场血腥的起义(其间政府崩溃,人人都拿起武器)后陷入“自找出路”的境地,他们用子弹和投票箱来拥抱自己的自由。中肯的问题是,我们是否本应做更多事来帮助他们?There’s also cause to regret the world’s betrayal of Syria, the origin of most of the migrants who crossed the Mediterranean last year. When more than 8m of them have been displaced from their homes in the war waged by President Bashar al-Assad and another 4m are refugees [SOURCE OF NUMBERS?], why are we shocked to see some of them braving death for the fleeting hope of a better future in Europe?世界对叙利亚的背叛同样令人遗憾。去年大多数横渡地中海的移民都来自叙利亚。当逾800万叙利亚人在总统巴沙尔#8226;阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)发动的战争中流离失所,另有400万人沦为难民时,为什么我们会震惊于他们中的一些人愿意为了到欧洲寻觅更美好未来的渺茫希望而冒险渡海?In any case, Gaddafi was not as useful on illegal migration as he liked to advertise. True, on his good days he would shut the spigot by terrorising or paying off the tribes that facilitated the boats’ passage; sometimes he agreed to joint patrols with Italians, whose coasts the migrants aim for. But, on his bad days, he flung the doors open.无论如何,卡扎菲在非法移民问题上并不真像他喜欢吹嘘的那样有用。没错,在他心血来潮的时候,他会通过恐吓或收买那些为船只通行提供便利的部落来堵住移民流动;有时,他会同意与意大利人联合巡逻(意大利海岸是移民的登陆目标)。但当他心情不好的时候,他会把所有大门敞开。For him destitute refugees — at that time mostly from sub-Saharan Africa — were a card he cynically bargained with, warning in 2009, for example, that he could turn Europe “black”.对卡扎菲来说,赤贫的难民(当时主要来自撒哈拉以南非洲地区)是他手中一张牌,可以用来为一己私利讨价还价。例如,他在2009年警告称,他可以将欧洲变成“黑色”。Rumour has it that by 2011, he had worked out an understanding — probably with Italy — that so long as he was welcomed in European capitals, he would help keep the migrants away. That changed when Nato launched air strikes in March 2011. A government spokesman threatened to retaliate by opening the floodgates. Trafficking was a lucrative business for Libyans, he said, and the government would do nothing to stop it.有传言称,到了2011年,他已经(很可能是与意大利)达成谅解:只要欧洲各国首都欢迎他,他将帮助欧洲挡住移民。当北约在2011年3月发动空袭时,这一默契发生了变化。一位政府发言人威胁要打开“闸门”以进行报复。他称,贩运人口对利比亚人是一份有利可图的生意,政府不会采取措施进行阻止。Back then it was a relief that Gaddafi’s authority lasted only a few months longer. It should still be: given how much Libyans have suffered since, surely we should wish them better than another Gaddafi.当时让人宽慰的是,卡扎菲政权仅仅再撑了几个月。世人依然应该感到宽慰:鉴于自那以来利比亚人民遭受了那么多苦难,我们当然应该希望他们得到比又一个卡扎菲好一点的领导人。 /201505/373696福建省泉州中医院专家预约 It is said that there is a correlation between the number of storks’ nests found on Danish houses and the number of children born in those houses. Could the old story about babies being delivered by storks really be true? No. Correlation is not causation. Storks do not deliver children but larger houses have more room both for children and for storks.丹麦流传着一种说法,一户人家屋檐上的鹳巢数量与这家人所生孩子的数量存在着相关性。婴儿是鹳鸟送来的古老传说是真的吗?当然不是。相关性跟因果关系不是一回事。鹳不会送来孩子,但大房子有更大的空间为孩子和鹳所用。This much-loved statistical anecdote seems less amusing when you consider how it was used in a US Senate committee hearing in 1965. The expert witness giving testimony was arguing that while smoking may be correlated with lung cancer, a causal relationship was unproven and implausible. Pressed on the statistical parallels between storks and cigarettes, he replied that they “seem to me the same”.这是一则人们喜闻乐见的统计趣闻,但如果你知道1965年在美国参议院一场听会上它是如何被用到的,你就不会觉得那么有趣了。那位做听发言的专家人辩称,尽管吸烟或许跟肺癌相关,但两者之间不存在已明的、令人信的因果关系。当被问及为何把鹳和孩子的关系与香烟和肺癌的关系进行类比,他回答说,两者“在我看来是一样的”。The witness’s name was Darrell Huff, a freelance journalist beloved by generations of geeks for his wonderful and hugely successful 1954 book How to Lie with Statistics. His reputation today might be rather different had the proposed sequel made it to print. How to Lie with Smoking Statistics used a variety of stork-style arguments to throw doubt on the connection between smoking and cancer, and it was supported by a grant from the Tobacco Institute. It was never published, for reasons that remain unclear. (The story of Huff’s career as a tobacco consultant was brought to the attention of statisticians in articles by Andrew Gelman in Chance in 2012 and by Alex Reinhart in Significance in 2014.)这位人的名字叫达莱尔#8226;哈夫(Darrell Huff),是一名自由记者,因其1954年出版的那本精、大为畅销的《统计数字会撒谎》(How to Lie with Statistics)而深受数代极客的爱戴。如果该书续集付印的话,他今天的名声或许会完全不同。《吸烟统计数字会撒谎》(How to Lie with Smoking Statistics)使用了各种鹳式论点来对吸烟与癌症的相关性提出质疑。该书得到了美国的烟草研究所(Tobacco Institute)资助,但不知出于什么原因一直没有出版。(2012年安德鲁#8226;格尔曼(Andrew Gelman)在《Chance》杂志上发表的文章,以及2014年亚历克斯#8226;莱因哈特(Alex Reinhart)在《Significance》杂志上发表的文章,使哈夫担任烟草业顾问的经历引起统计学家们的注意。)Indisputably, smoking causes lung cancer and various other deadly conditions. But the problematic relationship between correlation and causation in general remains an active area of debate and confusion. The “spurious correlations” compiled by Harvard law student Tyler Vigen and displayed on his website (tylervigen.com) should be a warning. Did you realise that consumption of margarine is strongly correlated with the divorce rate in Maine?毋庸置疑,吸烟会导致肺癌和其他多种致命疾病。但广泛意义上的相关性与因果之间的尚存疑问的关系,仍是当前一个极易引起争议和混淆的领域。哈佛大学(Harvard)法学院学生泰勒#8226;维根(Tyler Vige)编撰并发布在其网站(tylervigen.com)上的“伪相关”应算是一种警告。你知道缅因州人造奶油的消费量与离婚率之间存在很强的相关性吗?We cannot rely on correlation alone, then. But insisting on absolute proof of causation is too exacting a standard (arguably, an impossible one). Between those two extremes, where does the right balance lie between trusting correlations and looking for evidence of causation?所以,我们不能仅仅依赖相关性。但是,坚持为因果关系提供绝对据就过于苛刻了(甚至是一种不可能达到的标准)。在这两个极端之间,如何在相信相关性与寻找因果据之间达到合理的平衡呢?Scientists, economists and statisticians have tended to demand causal explanations for the patterns they see. It’s not enough to know that college graduates earn more money — we want to know whether the college education boosted their earnings, or if they were smart people who would have done well anyway. Merely looking for correlations was not the stuff of rigorous science.科学家、经济学家和统计学家倾向于要求为他们看到的现象提出因果解释。知道大学毕业生能赚更多钱还不够,我们想知道,大学教育是否提高了他们的收入,或者他们本来就是聪明人、不管接受大学教育与否都能赚更多钱。仅仅寻找相关性并非严格科学的做法。But with the advent of “big data” this argument has started to shift. Large data sets can throw up intriguing correlations that may be good enough for some purposes. (Who cares why price cuts are most effective on a Tuesday? If it’s Tuesday, cut the price.) Andy Haldane, chief economist of the Bank of England, recently argued that economists might want to take mere correlations more seriously. He is not the first big-data enthusiast to say so.但随着“大数据”的到来,这场争论开始发生变化。海量数据集可以产生一些有趣的相关性,在某些用途上它们就足够好用了(谁关心为何周二降价效果最好呢?如果确是这样,那就选这一天降价。)英国央行(BoE)首席经济学家安德鲁#8226;霍尔丹(Andy Haldane)不久前表示,经济学家们或许想更认真地看待纯粹相关性(mere correlation)。他不是第一个这么说的大数据热衷者。This brings us back to smoking and cancer. When the British epidemiologist Richard Doll first began to suspect the link in the late 1940s, his analysis was based on a mere correlation. The causal mechanism was unclear, as most of the carcinogens in tobacco had not been identified; Doll himself suspected that lung cancer was caused by fumes from tarmac roads, or possibly cars themselves.我们回头来讲抽烟与癌症之间的关系。20世纪40年代末,英国流行病学家理查德#8226;多尔(Richard Doll)最早开始怀疑二者之间的联系。当时他的分析基于纯粹相关性,他不清楚因果机制,因为当时还没确定烟草中的大多数致癌物。多尔本人怀疑肺癌的致病原因是柏油公路的烟气,或者可能就是汽车本身。Doll’s early work on smoking and cancer with Austin Bradford Hill, published in 1950, was duly criticised in its day as nothing more than a correlation. The great statistician Ronald Fisher repeatedly weighed into the argument in the 1950s, pointing out that it was quite possible that cancer caused smoking — after all, precancerous growths irritated the lung. People might smoke to soothe that irritation. Fisher also observed that some genetic predisposition might cause both lung cancer and a tendency to smoke. (Another statistician, Joseph Berkson, observed that people who were tough enough to resist adverts and peer pressure were also tough enough to resist lung cancer.)多尔与奥斯汀#8226;布拉德福德#8226;希尔(Austin Bradford Hill)在1950年发表了他们关于吸烟与癌症关系的早期研究结果,由于俩人的研究基于纯粹相关性,在当时果不其然遭到了批评。伟大的统计学家罗纳德#8226;费雪(Ronald Fisher)在20世纪50年代多次加入论战,指出很可能是癌症引起吸烟,毕竟癌前期病变会对肺部造成刺激,人们可能会通过吸烟来缓解这一刺激。费雪还认为有些遗传特征可能既会引发肺癌,还会引起吸烟倾向。(另一位统计学家约瑟夫#8226;伯克森(Joseph Berkson)提出,假如一个人强悍到足以抵制广告的诱惑和同龄人的压力,那么他也强悍到足以抵抗肺癌。)Hill and Doll showed us that correlation should not be dismissed too easily. But they also showed that we shouldn’t give up on the search for causal explanations. The pair painstakingly continued their research, and evidence of a causal association soon mounted.希尔和多尔的例子告诉我们,不要轻易否定相关性,但他们也以行动明,不应放弃寻找因果解释。俩人继续勤恳研究,很快就发现了更多表明因果关系的据。Hill and Doll took a pragmatic approach in the search for causation. For example, is there a dose-response relationship? Yes: heavy smokers are more likely to suffer from lung cancer. Does the timing make sense? Again, yes: smokers develop cancer long after they begin to smoke. This contradicts Fisher’s alternative hypothesis that people self-medicate with cigarettes in the early stages of lung cancer. Do multiple sources of evidence add up to a coherent picture? Yes: when doctors heard about what Hill and Doll were finding, many of them quit smoking, and it became possible to see that the quitters were at lower risk of lung cancer. We should respect correlation but it is a clue to a deeper truth, not the end of our investigations.希尔和多尔在寻找因果关系时采取了一种务实的方法。比如,是否存在一种剂量效应?是的,烟瘾大的人更可能患肺癌。烟龄长短有关系吗?有关系,吸烟者开始吸烟很久后,癌细胞开始形成。这与费舍尔设想的人们在肺癌早期阶段用烟草进行自我医疗的假设相矛盾。多个据来源凑到一起能否得到一个逻辑连贯的描述?是:能够得到。当医生们听闻希尔和多尔的发现时,许多医生开始戒烟,现实情况也表明戒烟者患肺癌的风险要更低。我们应该尊重相关性,但相关性只是通向更深层真理的一个线索,而不是研究的终点。It’s not clear why Huff and Fisher were so fixated on the idea that the growing evidence on smoking was a mere correlation. Both of them were paid as consultants by the tobacco industry and some will believe that the consulting fees caused their scepticism. It seems just as likely that their scepticism caused the consulting fees. We may never know.目前尚不清楚为什么面对越来越多的吸烟致癌的据,赫夫和费雪却执着地认为这仅是相关性。他们二人都是烟草行业的顾问,因而有些人会认为他们的怀疑动机来源于顾问费。但也很可能正是他们的怀疑带来了顾问费。到底哪个为因,哪个为果,后人可能永远不得而知。 /201504/372173泉州治疗宫颈糜烂需要多钱

泉州阴道痒怎么办泉州做人流较好医院 Meat for Horse Drivers腾冲马帮菜-赶马肉In winter, it is extremely chilly on the Ancient Tea Horse Road, a passage vital for business between China and South Asia. A group of businessmen, who ride on the horse, must press on even in the most unfavorable weather. Since their images are always associated with horse, they are also entitled “Horse Drivers”. Aside from commodities, the second important thing they must carry is cured meat, the food suitable for the journey. Being suitable means the food must be easily cooked in a short time for the extension of time dwelling on the Road is tantamount to the accumulation of danger. Traveling day and night, they wish they could finish the trade as soon as possible and head home staying with their family. Therefore, they are always having the meal in the simplest and quickest manner. They simply take out the cured meat, cut them into pieces and simmer them in the covered pot. Sometimes, if the fresh meat is available in the market, they will cook the fresh one instead. The dish is thus called “meat for Horse Drivers”. Being simple and convenient, it is the optimal choice for businessmen on the Road.腾冲作为茶马古道的要冲,民间自然有马帮菜传承。其中最负盛名的就是“赶马肉”。它实际就是焖肉块。当年的赶马人会随身携带干腊肉,吃饭时,取出来剁成大块,焖上一大锅,当然,如果遇上集市能买到鲜肉,他们就会用鲜的五花肉代替腊肉。 赶马人在路上的每一天都冒着生命危险,行程多一天就多一份不安全,因此日夜兼程,饭菜以简单、方便为原则。“赶马肉”就成了最佳选择。 /201505/377237泉州看妇科比较好的医院

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