明星资讯腾讯娱乐2018年10月23日 21:51:27
Nongzheng Quan,shu《农政全书》Nongzheng Quanshu (also Comprehensive Treatise on Agricultural Admin-istration) ,was written by Xu Guangqi (1562~1633) in the late Ming Dynasty.Born in the Songjiang area in Jiangsu Province ( now in Shanghai) where agriculture was very advanced, he was devoted to the agricultural development all his life.During the three-year period of mourning for his deceased father, he con-ducted in his hometown massive agricultural and ploughing experiments, and then went to Tianjing for similar experiments several times, the consequence of which was the completion of the agricultural encyclopedia. He died in his tenure of office,and it was his friend who helped publish the book in the 12th year of the reign of Emperor Chongzhen, i.e.in 1639.The book is divid-ed into 60 volumes, including the agriculture-oriented thought, land policy, water conservancy, farm tools, arboriculture, sericulture, animal husbandry,relief poliaes and the like. Besides summarizing his experiences of succeeding in growing crops and cot-ton, he went into details about water conservanolt and relief policies. He studied the lean years in the Chinese history, even delving into the concrete situations of the ill locust plagues which ever happened in China. The most effective way of putting an end to the lean years, he believed, was to establish the water conservancy projects on a large scale. In the Northwest, as he instantiated his point, instead of delivering grain from Southeast with great efforts, people should learn to reclaim the wasteland and establish the water conservancy projects on a large scale, turning Northwest into a major grain yielding area. A great num-ber of reference books written before or at the time were recorded h Non,gzheng Quanshu ,and the understandings and perspectives of the author presented.It was a great agricultural work of special importance in the Ming Dynasty.《农政全书》由晚明徐光启( 1562~1633)著。徐光启生于农业发达的江苏松江地区,他一生热爱农业,在为父亲丁忧的三年间,在家乡进行了较大规模的农业耕种试验,后又几次赴天津进行农业试验,写出这部农业百科全书。他死在任上,是朋友帮助将这部书于崇祯十二年( 1639)刊行的。全书60卷,分农本、田制、水利、农器、树艺、蚕桑、牧养、荒政等门,除总结自己种植粮食作物和棉花的成功经验外,还对水利和荒政以较大篇幅进行了研究。他研究了中国历代的荒年,甚至仔细研究了111次蝗灾的具体情况。他认为要彻底消灭荒年就要大兴水利,比如在大西北,与其耗费运力从东南运送粮食,不如开垦西北荒地,大兴水利,把大西北建成产粮基地。书中辑录了大量前代和当时的文献,也提出作者的心得和见解,是明代重要的农业科学巨著。 /201601/419328

Fear of robots, computers, and automation may be at an all-time high since B movies of the 1950s. Not only is there concern about jobs — even white-collar occupations are vulnerable — but big names in technology have weighed in with their worries.自从上世纪50年代开始涌现大量以机器人为主题B级片以来,人类对机器人、计算机和自动化的恐惧已经达到历史最高水平。这不仅是因为机器人可能抢走他们的工作(甚至就连白领工作也变得岌岌可危),一些科技界大佬的言论也加重了人们的担忧。Philanthropist and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates said, “[I] don’t understand why some people aren’t concerned” about artificial super intelligence that could exceed human control. Physicist Stephen Hawking thinks that “development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race,” as machines could redesign themselves at a rate that would leave biological evolution in the dust. Tesla Motors CEO and technology investor Elon Musk said research in the area could be like “summoning the demon” that is beyond control. Hedonated million to the Future of Life Institute, which sponsors research into how humanity can navigate the waters of change in the face of technology.微软联合创始人、慈善家比尔o盖茨曾说过:“我不能理解为什么有些人不担心会出现人类无法控制的超级人工智能”。物理学家史蒂芬o霍金也认为,“任由人工智能无拘无束地发展,可能会招致人类的灭亡,”因为机器能够以生物进化绝对达不到的速度重新设计自己。特斯拉公司的CEO、科技投资人伊隆o马斯克表示,人工智能领域的研究有可能“召唤出人类无法控制的恶魔”。马斯克最近向生命未来学院捐赠了1000万美金,这所学院主要研究人类如何平安地在科技变革中生存下去。That’s one camp.这是一个阵营。Then there’s another that says doomsday concerns are overblown and that, like a new age FDR, the only thing to fear is fear itself. These people — technologists, economists, and others — say that the combination of artificial intelligence, automation, and robotics will usher in new, better solutions to world problems.还有另一群科学家表示,人工智能带来的“末日危机”其实被夸大了,就像美国总统罗斯福所说的,唯一值得我们恐惧的就是恐惧本身。持人工智能的科学家和经济学家表示,人工智能、自动化和机器人会为人类世界的各种问题带来新的、更好的解决方案。They argue that the fear of technology is old and past experience has proven that while new developments can kill off jobs, they create even more to replace them. Machines could, in theory, replace humans in a wide variety of occupations, but shortcomings in creativity, change, and even common sense are vast, making them unable to in the foreseeable future.他们认为,人们对科技的恐惧其实早已存在。以往的经验表明,人工智能领域的新发展虽然会剥夺一些人的工作,但同时也会创造更多的工作岗位来取代旧的职业。从理论上看,机器虽然可以取代很多种由人类从事的职业,但机器缺乏创新和变革的能力,甚至缺乏常识,这就使得它们在可以预见的未来还无法彻底取代人类。Instead, these people suggest, robots and computers will work side by side with humans, enhancing productivity and opening new vistas of freedom for people to move beyond the drudgery of current life. In short, the coming years will look like all the ones that came before and society will sort itself out. In fact, a new film “Chappie,” due out March 6, depicts an anti-Terminator view, a world in which robots hold the solutions and humans are the bad guys. “You would have something that has 1,000 times the intelligence that we have, looking at the same problems that we look at,” the director Neill Blomkamp told N News. “I think the level of benefit would be immeasurable.”他们认为,机器人和计算机将与人类并肩工作,在提高工作效率的同时,还可以为人类带来更多自由,因为它们能够让我们免于从事一些累人的苦差事。简而言之,未来与之前的岁月没什么区别,社会完全能够自我调节。今年3月6日在美国上映的新片《超能查派》就讲述了一个“反终结者”的故事,世界要靠机器人来拯救,而人类成了坏人。该片导演尼尔o布洛姆坎普对《N新闻》表示:“未来机器人会拥有相当于我们1000倍的智能,如果让它们来解决我们面临的问题,我认为这种好处是难以估量的。”The swings of show biz reflect a deep concern and disagreement over whether technology holds promise or peril. The question comes down to whether the past necessarily predicts the future or if humankind could be in for a nasty shock. Hopefully the optimists will be able to say, “We told you so.” Here are five voices that say worries are overblown and leaps in technology will bring the human race along with them.业在“终结者”和“反终结者”之间的摇摆,反映出人们对科技究竟会带来福音还是灾难这一问题的关注与分歧。归根结底,问题在于过去的经验是否必然能反映未来?还是未来的某天会发生令全人类震惊的“大事件”?希望乐观主义者到时候会说:“我们早说了没事吧。”以下五位科学家就是这种乐观主义者,他们认为人们对人工智能的担忧完全是杞人忧天,并认为科技的飞跃必然会促进人类社会的进步。David Autor大卫o奥特尔Professor of Economics and Associate Department Head, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology麻省理工学院经济学院副院长、经济学教授;In 1966, the philosopher Michael Polanyi observed, #39;We can know more than we can tell... The skill of a driver cannot be replaced by a thorough schooling in the theory of the motorcar; the knowledge I have of my own body differs altogether from the knowledge of its physiology.#39; Polanyi’s observation largely predates the computer era, but the paradox he identified — that our tacit knowledge of how the world works often exceeds our explicit understanding — foretells much of the history of computerization over the past five decades. ...[J]ournalists and expert commentators overstate the extent of machine substitution for human labor and ignore the strong complementarities. The challenges to substituting machines for workers in tasks requiring adaptability, common sense, and creativity remain immense.;“哲学家迈克尔o波兰尼在1966年指出:‘我们所知道的东西,多于我们所能表达的……驾驶员的技能是再详细的驾驶理论教学也取代不了的;我对自己身体的认识,与它的生理学实际也有很大区别。’波兰尼的观察在时间上要远远早于计算机时代,但是他发现的悖论——即我们对世界的隐性知识往往超过了显性理解——在很大程度上成功预言了过去50年的计算机发展史……记者和专业人士夸大了机器取代人力的程度,却忽略了两者之间存在极强的互补性。人类从事的许多任务都需要适应性、尝试和创新能力,机器人要想取而代之,依然面临巨大的挑战。”Jeff Hawkins杰夫o霍金斯Executive director and chairman of cognitive theory research organization Redwood Neuroscience Institute, co-founder of Palm Computing, and co-founder of machine intelligence company Numenta红木神经科学中心常务董事兼主席、Palm Computing公司联合创始人、人工智能公司Numenta联合创始人。;The machine-intelligence technology we are creating today, based on neocortical principles, will not lead to self- replicating robots with uncontrollable intentions.There won’t be an intelligence explosion. There is no existential threat. This is the reality for the coming decades, and we can easily change direction should new existential threats appear.;“我们目前正在创建的机器智能技术基于大脑的新皮质原理,不会催生有意识脱离人类控制并且具有自我复制功能的机器人。它并不是一个现实威胁。这就是未来几十年的现实。而且就算未来真的出现了现实威胁,我们也可以轻易改变方向。”Eric Horvitz埃里克o霍尔维茨Distinguished Scientist amp; Managing Director, Microsoft Research知名科学家、微软研究院常务董事;There have been concerns about the long-term prospect that we lose control of certain kinds of intelligences. I fundamentally don#39;t think that#39;s going to happen. I think that we will be very proactive in terms of how we field AI systems, and that in the end we#39;ll be able to get incredible benefits from machine intelligence in all realms of life, from science to education to economics to daily life.;“有人担心未来我们可能会失去对某些智能的控制。我认为这种情况不大可能发生。我认为在使用人工智能系统这个问题上,我们会非常积极主动的。而且最终在人类生活的方方面面,从科学到教育到经济,再到日常生活,我们都能享受到机器智能带来的惊人效益。”Deborah Johnson黛伯拉o约翰逊Anne Shirley Carter Olsson Professor of Applied Ethics in the Science, Technology, and Society Program in the School of Engineering and Applied Sciences at the University of Virginia维吉尼亚大学工程与应用科学学院科学、技术与社会项目伦理学教授;Presumably in fully autonomous machines all the tasks are delegated to machines. This, then, poses the responsibility challenge. Imagine a drone circulating in the sky, identifying a combat area, determining which of the humans in the area are enemy combatants and which are noncombatants, and then deciding to fire on enemy targets.“如果完全自动化的机器成熟了,所有任务可以依赖这些机器自行完成。那么这首先会带来职责上的挑战。设想一架盘旋在空中的无人机,能自动识别战斗区域,并确定战场上的哪些人是敌军、哪些是平民,然后自行决定向敌军目标开火。;Although drones of this kind are possible, the description is somewhat misleading. In order for systems of this kind to operate, humans must be involved.Humans make the decisions to delegate to machines; the humans who design the system make decisions about how the machine tasks are performed or, at least, they set the parameters in which the machine decisions will be made; and humans decide whether the machines are reliable enough to be delegated tasks in real-world situations.;虽然生产这种无人机是可能的,但这种描述具有一定的误导性。这类系统要想顺畅运行,人类是必须要参与的。人类要做出这些决策,然后将任务委托给机器。设计这套系统的人类要决定机器怎样完成任务,至少也要设定相关参数,来对机器的决策进行限定。另外在真实的环境中,人类还要判断机器是否足够可靠,能否委以重任。”Michael Littman迈克尔o利特曼Professor of Computer Science, Brown University布朗大学计算机科学教授;To be clear, there are indeed concerns about the near-term future of AI — algorithmic traders crashing the economy, or sensitive power grids overreacting to fluctuations and shutting down electricity for large swaths of the population. There#39;s also a concern that systemic biases within academia and industry prevent underrepresented minorities from participating and helping to steer the growth of information technology. These worries should play a central role in the development and deployment of new ideas. But d predictions of computers suddenly waking up and turning on us are simply not realistic.;“要明确的是,的确有人担心不久的未来人工智能会对人类产生影响——比如人工智能的交易商会导致经济崩溃,或是敏感的电网管理系统对用电量的起伏产生过度反应,从而切断了大量人口的用电。还有人担心,学术界和产业界的系统性编见,可能导致代表性不足的少数派无法参与掌控信息技术的发展方向。在新理念的发展和部署过程中,这些担忧应该会扮演重要的角色。但是很多人担心计算机会突然醒来攻击我们,这种担忧是不现实的。” /201503/367039




  Technology makes our lives better. You#39;re taking a MOOC class, and have your appointments organized on your computer. You watch wepisodes on your internet-capable high-definition television. You pay your bills electronically and save time and money. That#39;s fine and dandy, until someone takes out the electronic banking system and the machines take over the planet.科技为我们带来了更美好的生活。你可以参加网络课程,利用电脑整理自己的约会事宜。你也可以在持联网的高清电视机上浏览网页,使用网络进行电子付。这一切都让人觉得如此得心应手,直到有一天你发现,有人可以侵入的网上交易系统,而先进的机器将会攻陷我们的星球。Sounds crazy? Perhaps. None of the gadgets and innovations we included in our list of 10 scary technologies is likely to rain death and destruction on our little planet, though that doesn#39;t prevent people from being unnerved by them. Read on to find out what weirdness may await in the future.这听起来是不是很疯狂?或许吧。以下我们列出的这10个吓人的科技发明中,不论是小玩意还是大发明,都不大可能对我们的星球造成伤害甚至是毁灭性的打击。只不过人们仍然对此感到惶惶不安。现在就让我们来看看,未来到底有什么古怪的事情在等着我们吧。10.Hearing Voices at the Store10.商店里的私人扩音器Imagine that you walk into your friendly neighborhood big box store and instead of being greeted by a smiling retiree, you hear whispered voices prompting you to buy things. You spin around to see who#39;s speaking, but there#39;s no one there and none of the other shoppers seem alarmed. Have you finally gone nuts? No, but the ]advertising industry has.想想看,你走进附近一家环境不错的大型超市,迎接你的并不是一位面带笑容的老年人,而是亲切温柔的声音耳语般地鼓励你购买一些商品。你四处搜寻,想要找到声音的来源,然而店内并无任何工作人员。你环顾四周,发现身边的其他消费者也并无异常。最后你会不会好奇的简直要疯掉了呢?不,当然不会。真正疯狂的是那些广告商。A company called Holosonics has developed a technology called the Audio Spotlight system, which uses tiny speakers to focus sound into a very narrow beam. Ultrasonic frequencies are too high for the human ear to hear, but as the sound travels from the Audio Spotlight system#39;s speakers, air distorts the sound and makes it audible. It#39;s perfect for in-store advertising, but you#39;d have to be standing in the right place to hear it.全方位应用声学公司(Holosonics)已经研发了一种称作“声音聚焦系统”的技术,能够利用微型扩音器将声音聚集成狭窄的一束。因超声波的频率过高,人类自然无法听到这类声音。但是应用了“声音聚焦系统”的扩音器发出声音后,空气可以改变超声波,使其能够为人类所听见。这种技术用来进行店内广告及营销工作简直是再合适不过了!然而要注意的是,只有站在正确的位置才能听到声音。9.DNA Hacking9.解密DNAWhen the human genome was fully mapped in 2003, researchers around the globe began to dissect the genome#39;s 3 billion-plus base pairs for the root causes of diseases like Alzheimer#39;s and common cancers. But that was only the beginning. The real dream of biotechnology is not only to understand how our DNA expresses itself, but also to ;write; new DNA that heals disease and repairs bodies from the inside out. J. Craig Venter, the bio-entrepreneur whose company helped map the genome, reached a new milestone in 2010 when he built the world#39;s first synthetic, self-replicating chromosome He loaded some homemade synthetic DNA into a bacterial cell and watched it grow and divide according to computer-generated As, Ts, Gs and Cs. By his own reckoning, he had created ;life.;在人类基因组计划于2003年圆满完成之后,全球范围内的研究人员都开始深入研究基因组中30多亿个碱基,试图找出一些疾病如阿兹海默或其他常见癌症的根本病因。然而这仅仅是个开始。生物科技的终极理想不仅在于搞清楚基因表达的方式,还要能够实现新型基因的创造,从而实现由内而外、完全治愈疾病的目的。克雷格·文特尔(J.Craig Venter)是一名生物科技领域的的企业家,其研究机构为“人类基因组”计划贡献了一份力量。2010年,他所进行的“全球首例人工合成、自我复制的染色体”项目取得突破性进展。克雷格·文特尔将人工合成的DNA植入菌细胞,通过计算机生成四种碱基(As,Ts,Gs 和Cs)来观察菌细胞的分化生长。用他自己的话来说,他是在创造生命。In the happy scenario, biologists of the near future will figure out how to program viruses and bacteria to deliver custom-made cures that shrink cancerous tumors or reverse the tide of dementia. In the super scary scenario, bioterrorists engineer deadly superbugs that target us at a genetic level. In a 2012 article, The Atlantic imagined a technologically plausible scheme in which the president of the ed States is assassinated by a highly contagious cold designed to target a weak link in his specific genetic code. To keep your DNA out of enemy hands, it#39;s best not to leave the house without a hairnet and rubber gloves.如果事情发展顺利的话,在不远的将来,生物学家有望控制细菌和病毒,针对患病者的病症提供所需的治疗,从而缓和癌症类肿瘤的病况或是有效扭转老年痴呆的发作。不过,如果事情朝着极其可怕的一面发展,生化恐怖分子也可能研发出致命性的超级细菌,直接从基因层面上对人类构成威胁。2012年,美国大西洋月刊发表一篇文章,作者在文章中提出一个科技上完全可行的假设:通过使人感染一种高传染性的感冒,你能暗杀美国总统于无形,因为这种感冒能攻击人体基因代码中某一特定的微弱链接。这样看来,要想避免敌人获取你的DNA,以后出门时发网和橡胶手套可都要随身携带啦。8.Cyberwar8.网络战争Imagine a war fought completely by computer. No, we#39;re not talking about a scene out of the movie ;WarGames,; we#39;re talking an all-out attack on a nation#39;s electronic infrastructure. What#39;s that, you may ask? Those are the systems that control emergency response services, banks and other electronic commerce, the systems that run the electrical grid, water and fuel pipeline controls, and oh, yeah: defense weaponry. A well-executed attack could cause serious disruption and open the populace up to physical threats.你能想象一场完全由电脑来对峙的战争吗?等等,我们说的可不是《战争游戏》中的一些场面,而是大家的电脑火力全开地攻击一个国家的电子设施。听到这里你的反应可能是:“呃,你在说什么?”我们所说的电子设施就是那些控制着应急务部门、、电子贸易、国家电网、供水管道、燃油管道和……噢!还有怎么能少的了防御武器装备运行系统。一场精心设计的网络攻击可以完全瓦解上述的电子设施,甚至乎会影响到普通大众的人身安全。In 2013, FBI Director James Comey predicted that cyberattacks would soon overtake traditional international terrorism as the greatest threat to homeland security. In 2008,Georgia suspected Russia of denial-of-service attacks (which Russia denied). In 2013, South Korea accused North Korea of cyberttacks. Hackers have taken on the Pentagon, and some suspect terrorist organizations of training their operatives to launch computer assaults. So how do you defend against a cyberattack? Educating people about computer viruses and Trojan horses will help, and using updated antivirus software is also important.联邦调查局局长詹姆斯#8226;科米(James Comey)在2013年预测,网络攻击会很快超越传统的国际恐怖组织,成为国家安全的最大隐患。2008年,在美国佐治亚州(Georgia),有互联网研究专家怀疑俄罗斯政府对美国发起了阻断务攻击。(译注:denial-of-service attacks,缩写:DoS,亦称洪水攻击,是一种网络攻击手法,其目的在于使目标计算机的网络或系统资源耗尽,使务暂时中断或停止,导致其对目标客户不可用。)而俄国政府对此言论表示否认。2013年韩国控告朝鲜对其进行网络攻击。这么多的网络攻击事件传出后,顿时言论四起,有的说黑客已经攻破了五角大楼的防火墙,还有的说有些疑似恐怖组织正在训练特工,准备发起电脑袭击。那么身陷不安全网络的我们该如何防范呢?为了能够让大众更安全地上网,政府应该普及有关计算机病毒和特洛伊木马病毒(Trojan horses)的各种知识,让公众能够识别并预防,除此之外,还应该不断更新使用的杀毒软件。Cyberattacks actually might be useful tools against machines that have learned to think for themselves and chosen to eliminate humanity. It#39;s the stuff of science fiction, but why do some people believe this could happen? Learn more on the next page.科幻小说可能会出现:网络攻击实际上是用来对付那些拥有了意识并想要消除人类的机器的。但为什么会有人相信呢?不要走开,下一小节告诉你。审校:Fiona 校对:落花生 Freya然 /201507/384945When you#39;re a famous CEO, you end up giving so many interviews that you might forget what you#39;ve said in them all.You might also give interviews on particular days when you#39;re in particular moods. This can lead to particular articles being published that you particularly regret.如果你是一位著名CEO,在接受了无数采访之后,你可能都不记得你说过什么了。可能某天你在接受采访时心情不佳,采访后刊登出来的文章会让你对自己所言十分后悔。So it is, perhaps, with an interview in which Tesla CEO Elon Musk gave to Germany#39;s Handelsblatt. In it, he suggested -- jokingly?-- that the Cupertino, California, tech titan hires Tesla#39;s engineering castoffs.德国商报采访特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克就是这种情况。在采访中,或许是半开玩笑,马斯克说技术行业的大亨——位于加利福尼亚州的库皮蒂诺市所雇佣的是特斯拉之前解雇的工程师。;Did you ever take a look at the Apple Watch? No, seriously,; he said of Apple#39;s alleged foray into cars. ;It#39;s good that Apple is moving and investing in this direction. But cars are very complex compared to phones or smartwatches.;;你之前看过苹果手表吗?没有;。马斯克在谈到苹果公司有意进军汽车行业时说道:;苹果公司转向这个行业是件好事。但是同手机和智能手表相比,汽车可比那些东西复杂多了。;Some wondered whether Apple and Tesla had endured a falling out. It had once been rumored that the two companies might come together.有些人担心苹果和特斯拉是否会因此产生嫌隙。之前曾传闻两家公司或将合并。Thankfully, Musk took to Twitter on Friday to dismiss the very notion that he and Apple weren#39;t BFFs.好在周五时,马斯克发推特,否认自己与苹果公司关系不佳的谣言。;Yo, I don#39;t hate Apple, he first tweeted. ;It#39;s a great company with a lot of talented people. I love their products and I#39;m glad they#39;re doing an EV.;;嘿!我可没说自己讨厌苹果,;他在推特中称:;苹果公司有许多才华横溢的人。我喜欢他们的产品,我很高兴他们准备生产电动汽车。;Those of punctilious mien might suggest that Apple#39;s ;talented people; still just weren#39;t talented enough to work for Tesla. They might also muse that Musk seems to know definitively that Apple is making an electronic vehicle. Might that be because the alleged castoffs from Tesla who now work at Apple have told him?这些精心设计过的推文也许是在说这些;才华横溢;的员工仍然没有资格为特斯拉效力,或者马斯克已经确定苹果公司在研究电动汽车。这难道是那些被特斯拉解雇的员工跑回来告的密?Musk followed up with another tweet addressing his views on the Watch. ;Regarding the watch, Jony amp; his team created a beautiful design, but the functionality isn#39;t compelling yet. By version 3, it will be.;马斯克随即又发了第二条推特,提出自己对苹果手表的看法。;对于手表,乔尼和他的团队所设计出来的产品十分漂亮,但是功能尚且不够完善。也许到第三代会很不错。;Translation: Version 2 will still be an inadequate lump of beautiful design.话外音:第二代仍然是个功能残次的绣抱枕头。Commenters on Musk#39;s tweets weren#39;t all amused. Someone called Joe Zou suggested that Tesla#39;s CEO was merely jealous that the Apple Watch made more profit in three months than Tesla will in 2015.马斯特的推特的并不都十分不搞笑。一位叫乔伊·周的网友认为特斯拉的CEO纯粹就是在嫉妒苹果手表三个月内的盈利比特斯拉2015年的年盈利还要多。 /201510/403208

  FRANKFURT — WHETHER or not Apple’s secretive car project ever leads to an actual automobile, the technology company has aly had a profound effect on the vehicle business.法兰克福——不管苹果公司藏而不露的汽车研发项目未来是否真的会让它生产某款汽车,这家科技公司都已经对汽车行业产生了深远的影响。The mere knowledge that Apple has a team of several hundred people working on car designs changed the conversation this week at the Frankfurt International Motor Show. Along with Google, Apple has focused the minds of auto executives on the challenge posed by new technologies that have the potential to disrupt traditional auto industry hierarchies.仅仅是知道苹果有一个几百人的团队在做汽车设计方面的研发,就足以改变人们在本周举行的法兰克福国际车展(Frankfurt International Motor Show )上谈论的话题。苹果,再加上谷歌,让汽车公司的高管们把注意力都放在了新技术带来的挑战上,这些新技术有可能会打破汽车行业的传统实力格局。This year, “connectivity” has supplanted “horsepower” or “torque” as the prevailing buzzword in Frankfurt. The talk is of self-driving cars, battery-powered cars and information technology designed to link cars with data networks to make driving safer and more efficient.今年,“连通性”已经取代“马力“或“扭矩”,成为法兰克福车展的热门词汇。人们谈论的是自驾车、电动汽车,以及将汽车和数据网络连接起来以提高驾驶安全性和效率的信息技术。Even though neither Apple nor Google is close to mass-producing a vehicle, nervousness about their intentions — which remain cloaked in mystery — is understandable.虽说苹果和谷歌都离批量生产汽车还很远,但汽车行业依然为两家公司不为外界所知的研发意图而紧张,这不难理解。As cars increasingly become rolling software platforms, Apple and Google have depths of tech expertise that the carmakers would have trouble duplicating. And those Silicon Valley companies have financial resources that dwarf those of even behemoth companies like Daimler and Volkswagen. Google, which began working on self-driving cars in 2009, is valued by the stock market at more than five times the worth of either of those carmakers. Apple is worth eight times as much. That gives them an advantage in a business that requires huge investment in research and development.随着汽车越来越多地成为装上车轮的软件平台,汽车制造商却很难复制苹果和谷歌所拥有的强大技术专长。而且即便是奔驰和大众这样的汽车业巨头,其财力与这两家硅谷公司相比,也会相形见绌。从2009年开始研发自驾车的谷歌,在股票市场上的估值已经是上述两家汽车厂商中任一家的五倍还要多。苹果的估值则是它们中任一家的八倍。在一个需要在研发上进行巨额投入的行业里,这让谷歌和苹果显得更具优势。The main risk for carmakers is probably not so much that an Apple car would destroy Mercedes-Benz or BMW the way the iPhone gutted Nokia, the Finnish company that was once the world’s largest maker of mobile phones. Rather, the risk is that Apple and Google would turn the carmakers into mere hardware makers — and hog the profit.汽车生厂商面临的主要风险,也许并非苹果汽车(Apple car)有可能会摧毁奔驰或宝马汽车的市场,如同iPhone击溃了曾经是世界第一大手机厂商的芬兰公司诺基亚(Nokia)那样。而是说,苹果和谷歌有可能将汽车厂商变成纯粹的硬件制造者,进而独占这个行业的利润。Carmakers say they are determined to resist that danger by maintaining control of the software that is proliferating inside vehicles.汽车厂商们表示,他们决心对正在激增的汽车内置软件保持掌控,以对抗这种风险。“What is important for us is that the brain of the car, the operating system, is not iOS or Android or someone else but it’s our brain,” Dieter Zetsche, the chief executive of Daimler, the maker of Mercedes vehicles, told reporters at the car show. IOS is Apple’s operating system for mobile devices.“对我们来说比较重要的是,作为汽车大脑的操作系统不能是iOS、安卓或其他系统,它得是我们自己的,”奔驰汽车的制造商戴姆勒公司(Daimler)的首席执行官迪特·蔡澈(Dieter Zetsche)在车展上对记者表示。iOS是苹果为其移动设备研发的操作系统。“We do not plan to become the Foxconn of Apple,” Mr. Zetsche said, referring to the Chinese company that manufactures iPhones.“我们不打算做苹果的富士康(Foxconn),”蔡澈说道,他指的是为苹果生产iPhones的中国公司。Even without competition from Apple and Google, the carmakers are under extreme pressure to change the way they build cars. Regulators in Europe and the ed States are demanding that cars emit less carbon dioxide, a culprit in global warming. The only way the automakers can meet increasingly stringent emissions standards is by selling more hybrid vehicles, and eventually all-electric cars. Both technologies require more software than gasoline or diesel engines.即便没有来自苹果和谷歌的竞争,汽车厂商们也面临着极大的压力,需要改变生产汽车的方式。欧洲和美国监管机构要求汽车厂商进一步降低汽车碳排放量,因为汽车排放是导致全球变暖的原因之一。而满足越来越严格的排放标准的唯一方式,就是销售更多混合动力汽车,最终实现只销售电动汽车。这两种技术都更加依赖软件研发,而非汽油或柴油发动机。Technology that links cars to data networks, so-called connectivity, also plays a role in reducing emissions and satisfying regulators. Systems that help drivers quickly find a parking space or avoid traffic jams, besides being convenient, help limit unnecessary driving and save fuel. But the new technologies are expensive, and car buyers are not necessarily willing to pay. Electric cars account for a sliver of the market so far.将汽车与数据网络相连的技术,即所谓的连通性,对于实现更少碳排放和让监管机构满意,也很重要。帮助司机快速找到停车位或避开交通拥堵的系统,除了方便之外,也有助于减少驾驶时长和节省燃料。但新技术相当昂贵,汽车购买者未必愿意为之买单。目前电动汽车的销售量只占整个市场很小一部分。Those pressures have been building for several years, but they have intensified since word leaked out early this year that Apple was studying whether to build a car.对汽车厂商而言,这些压力过去几年一直在增加,但今年年初苹果就是否生产汽车的问题进行研究的消息传出后,他们的压力更是瞬间加剧。“What has been an evolution is going to be a revolution,” said Stephan Winkelmann, the chief executive of Lamborghini, the Italian maker of super sports cars that is part of the Volkswagen group.“原先在不断演进的过程,如今要成为革命性巨变了,”兰基尼(Lamborghini)首席执行官斯特凡·温克尔曼(Stephan Winkelmann)说,这家意大利顶级跑车企业是大众汽车集团的子公司。“Starting from sustainability, going over to digitalization, and ending up at autonomous driving — these three big things are really something that is a game changer for the automotive industry,” Mr. Winkelmann said in an interview. “Everybody has to tackle these challenges.”“从可持续性,到数字化,再到最终的自动驾驶,这是未来会真正改变汽车行业游戏规则的三件大事,”温克尔曼在接受采访时说道。“所有汽车企业都必须应对这些挑战。”Volkswagen, previously regarded as a laggard in vehicle electrification, said in Frankfurt this week that it would introduce 20 new plug-in hybrid or all-electric models by 2020, and it introduced a battery-powered Porsche concept car. At the company’s preshow extravaganza for the media Monday night at a repurposed basketball arena, there was nary a mention of internal combustion. Instead, Martin Winterkorn, the Volkswagen chief executive, spoke of cars that would park themselves and eventually run completely on autopilot.之前被认为在汽车电气化方面落后于其他公司的大众集团,本周在法兰克福推出了一款保时捷电动概念车,并表示至2020年大众集团将陆续推出20款新的插电式混合动力或全电动车型。周一晚上,该集团在一个重新布置的篮球馆举行了声势浩大的展前发布会。在会上,无人提起内燃机之类的词汇。大众集团首席执行官文德恩(Martin Winterkorn)转而谈到了可以自动停车以及最终可以完全自动驾驶的汽车。“By the end of this decade we will have transformed all of our new cars into smartphones on wheels,” he said.“截至2020年,大众所有新款车型都将转变成带轮子的智能手机,”他说。It is not only the European carmakers closely watching Apple and Google. Anthony Foxx, the ed States transportation secretary, in Frankfurt for a meeting on Thursday with his counterparts from other G7 nations, said conventional automakers were trying to roll out technology as fast as they can, while some in Silicon Valley were aiming to leap straight to self-driving cars.不是只有欧洲汽车厂商在密切关注苹果和谷歌的动向。美国运输部部长安东尼·福克斯(Anthony Foxx)周四在法兰克福与来自其他G7国家的运输交通部长召开会议。他表示,传统汽车厂商正在尽可能快地推出新技术,而硅谷的科技公司则想一步到位地推出自动驾驶汽车。“There is an interesting dialogue between Detroit and Silicon Valley on this,” Mr. Foxx said during a meeting with several reporters. “There is probably some tension there, but maybe that is good creative tension.”“在这方面,底特律和硅谷之间形成了有趣的互动,”福克斯在会见几位记者时讲道。“他们之间可能存在一些紧张情绪,但或许这是有益创造性的紧张情绪。”One of the main guessing games at the auto show was whether Apple or Google would ever build a car. Both companies have met with German car companies as well as suppliers. Google executives have said the company will not become a carmaker.在车展上,大家猜测比较多的是一个问题是,苹果或谷歌是否会生产汽车。两家公司都和一些德国汽车公司和供应商见过面。谷歌的高管已经表示,它不会做汽车厂商。“Google is not a car manufacturer and does not intend to become one,” John Krafcik, a former Ford and Hyundai executive who runs Google’s self-driving car program, said in Frankfurt.“谷歌不是汽车制造商,也不打算成为这样的角色,”之前曾担任福特(Ford)和现代(Hyundai)汽车公司高管、现为谷歌自驾车项目负责人的约翰·克拉夫茨克(John Krafcik)在车展上表示。But it was not clear yet whether he meant that Google would license self-driving technology to traditional carmakers, or use contract manufacturers to build a vehicle. A Google spokesman declined to elaborate.但此话是否代表着谷歌会将其自驾车技术授权给传统汽车厂商,或通过签约汽车厂商生产汽车,还不清楚。一位谷歌发言人拒绝透露这方面的详细信息。Apple’s intentions are murkier. As is customary for Apple, the company has provided no information. But Timothy D. Cook, the Apple chief executive, reportedly visited a factory in Leipzig, Germany, last year where BMW manufactures the i3, an all-electric sedan with a carbon fiber body.苹果的意图更加模糊。如其一贯作风,苹果不曾透露过这方面的任何信息。但据说苹果首席执行官蒂莫西·D·库克(Timothy D. Cook)去年曾拜访德国莱比锡市的一家工厂,那是宝马公司生产拥有碳纤维车身的全电动小轿车宝马i3的地方。“We are not quite sure what Apple is prepared to do,” Friedrich Eichiner, the chief financial officer of BMW, said during a meeting with a group of reporters in Frankfurt. He said he thought Apple was still trying to understand the implications of getting into the car business.“我们不太确定苹果准备做什么,”宝马集团首席财务官弗里德里希·埃希纳(Friedrich Eichiner)在法兰克福接受记者群访时说。他说,他认为苹果还在努力弄清楚自己进入汽车行业有可能产生的结果。“Financially they are very strong,” Mr. Eichiner said. “They could do it.”“就财力而言,他们很强,”埃希纳说。“生产汽车没问题。”Luca de Meo, head of sales and marketing at Audi, another Volkswagen unit, said it would be out of character for Apple not to build its own vehicle, if it decides to get into the car business. “The Apple style is the ability to do software and hardware at the same time,” Mr. de Meo said in an interview.大众集团另一子公司奥迪(Audi)的销售与市场总监卢卡·德·梅奥(Luca de Meo)表示,如果苹果决定进入汽车行业,不生产自己的汽车的做法不符合它一贯的风格。“苹果的优势就在于同时集成软硬件的能力,”德·梅奥在接受采访时讲道。The traditional carmakers’ big advantage is that they have aly mastered the formidable complexity of manufacturing vehicles that are reliable, comfortable and safe. But it is becoming more feasible for a newcomer to outsource vehicle manufacturing the same way that Apple outsources production of iPhones. And the outsourcer wouldn’t necessarily be in China.传统汽车厂商的一大优势是,他们已经掌握了生产可靠、安全和舒适的汽车所需的极其复杂的工艺。但是对于进入这一行业不久的企业来说,像苹果外包iPhones的生产那样将汽车生产业务外包出去,正在变得愈发可行。而汽车生产外包商不一定来自中国。One company aly working with Google is ZF, a large German auto components supplier that in May completed an acquisition of TRW, a company based in Michigan that provides auto electronics such as airbag systems. TRW has been working on sensors and other hardware for self-driving cars.德国的大型汽车配件供应商ZF已经和谷歌展开合作,该公司在今年5月收购了位于密歇根的TRW,后者是一家生产安全气囊装置等汽车电子元件的企业,一直在研发和生产用于自驾车的传感器和其他硬件。Stefan Sommer, the chief executive of ZF, said the company would be able to produce a Google-branded car along with two or three other partners supplying components that ZF can’t, such as sheet metal body parts. “We would be a partner in that, for sure,” Mr. Sommer said in an interview.ZF公司首席执行官斯特凡·佐默(Stefan Sommer)表示,只要有两三个提供配件的合作企业与之相配合,该公司未来就可以生产谷歌牌汽车,合作企业可以为之供应包括金属板车身在内的ZF无法生产的汽车部件。“作为合作伙伴,我们肯定会参与谷歌汽车的生产,”佐默在接受采访时讲。But he said ZF could not work with Apple under the conditions it now imposes on suppliers. ZF sees itself as an innovator, not just a supplier. In Frankfurt, it displayed a car with electrically powered wheels that allow the car to turn 360 degrees almost on its own axis. ZF could not agree to demands by Apple for exclusive rights to such inventions, Mr. Sommer said.但他也表示,ZF无法按照苹果目前强加于其供应商的要求与之合作。因为ZF将自身看作创新企业,而不只是供应商。在法兰克福,该公司展示了一款配备电动车轮、几乎可以360度自转的汽车。佐默表示,ZF无法同意将这类创新技术独家授权给苹果。While Apple and Google pose a threat to traditional automakers, the mood in Frankfurt is not gloomy. Not long ago, analysts were predicting that the auto industry faced long-term decline. Surveys showed that younger people were less interested than their parents in cars and driving. But if Apple and Google are interested in the car industry, auto executives reason, cars and driving must be cool again.尽管苹果和谷歌给传统汽车厂商带来了威胁,但法兰克福车展上并非愁云密布。不久前,分析师们预测汽车业将面临长期的业绩下降。不少问卷调查也显示,更年轻的一代对汽车和驾驶的兴趣,比他们的父母辈一代要少。但汽车公司高管们推断,如果苹果和谷歌对汽车行业感兴趣,汽车和驾驶肯定会再度变酷。“It’s confirmation that we are working in a future industry,” said Ola , head of marketing and sales for Mercedes-Benz cars.“这明,我们从事的是一个拥有未来的行业,”奔驰的市场和销售总监奥拉·凯伦纽斯(Ola )说。Apple and Google have given the car industry a jolt. Now the question is whether carmakers can respond quickly enough.苹果和谷歌已经给汽车行业带来冲击。现在的问题是,汽车厂商们能否足够快地予以应对。And they are trying to raise their games. Daimler, for example, reorganized its factories around the world last year, eliminating plant managers and giving control over production to the executives in charge of different model lines. The change allowed Mercedes to introduce a new variant of its popular C-Class at four factories, on four continents, in six months — about half of what it would have taken earlier, said Markus , head of production at Mercedes.他们正努力改善自身的现状。比如,奔驰在去年重组了它分布于全球的工厂,裁掉工厂经理,将生产的控制权交给负责各个产品线的高管。该公司的生产总监马库斯·舍费尔(Markus Sch昀 )表示,这让他们可以在6个月内在位于4个大陆的4家工厂开工生产备受欢迎的C-Class的一个新款车型,而在此前这样的工作大约需要花费一年的时间。“This enables us to be more competitive in a world where new competitors come to the table,” Mr. Sch said.“在一个有新竞争对手开始入场的世界里,这会让我们更具竞争力,”舍费尔说。“We created the automobile,” he said, “and we will not be a hardware provider to somebody else.”“我们发明了汽车,”他说,“我们不会沦为其他企业的硬件供应商。” /201509/400017



  HONG KONG —Despite a slowdown in China, Alibaba, the Internet giant, experienced a surge in revenue in the latest quarter, driven by strong growth in mobile.香港——即使面对放缓的中国经济,受益于移动端营收的激增,互联网巨头阿里巴巴上个季度的业绩仍然增长强劲。Given Alibaba’s dominance in online shopping, investors have been concerned that the trouble in the country’s economy could spill over into the company’s performance.考虑到阿里巴巴在网购行业的主导地位,投资者一度担忧中国经济面临的困境会影响该公司的业绩。After its much-hyped initial public offering last year, Alibaba reported lackluster earnings in the first half of 2015. Its stock price even briefly dropped below its listing price.在去年风光无限的公开上市后,阿里巴巴2015年上半年的业绩报告显得黯淡无光。股价甚至一度跌破发行价。Now Alibaba is showing signs of stabilizing.现在,阿里巴巴显现出恢复稳定的迹象。In its results on Tuesday, Alibaba reported that sales rose 32 percent in the latest quarter to 22.2 billion renminbi, or .5 billion. Earnings per share increased 30 percent. After Alibaba reported results on Tuesday, the company’s stock jumped 5 percent in morning trading.根据周二公布的最新季报,阿里巴巴宣布上季度营收达到222亿元人民币,同比增长32%,每股收益增长了30%。于周二公布该季营收后,阿里巴巴的股价在上午的交易中大涨5%。Still, analysts continue to worry about how a general slowdown in China could rattle Alibaba. Slower growth is expected to hit the wallets of the Chinese middle class, who regularly splurge on the company’s online shopping platforms. At around , Alibaba’s shares are still a long way from the 9 high-water mark they hit after the I.P.O.然而,分析师依然担心中国经济的全面减缓会对阿里巴巴造成冲击。经济增速减缓将令中国中产阶级的钱包缩水,而中产阶级正是经常在阿里巴巴网购平台消费的主力军。阿里巴巴目前股价约为每股79美元,相较公开发行后曾高达每股119美元的历史价位,还有很长的一段距离。“Economic challenges most likely weighed on average spending by buyers,” the research group Trefis wrote in a report.“经济不景气通常反映在消费者的平均开上。”美国投资研究机构Trefis在其报告中写道。Speaking to concerns about the Chinese economy, Joe Tsai, the company’s executive vice chairman, said in a conference call on Tuesday that the company did not believe that a blip in Chinese growth would have a long-term impact on the consumer spending on Alibaba’s sites.谈到对中国经济的担忧,阿里巴巴执行副主席蔡崇信(Joe Tsai)在周二的电话会议上表示,阿里巴巴不认为中国经济的短暂变化会对消费者的网购消费造成长期影响。“When you look at the Chinese consumer, they’re very liquid. They have lots of cash deposits in their account,” he said, adding “a temporary setback in the macro economy is not going to affect their consumption pattern in a fundamental way.” “中国消费者的现金流动性非常好,账户的现金存款相当多。”他补充谈道,“宏观经济暂时放缓不会从根本上带来消费模式的变化。”In particular, Mr. Tsai noted that Chinese consumption as a percentage of the country’s output is still well below that of developed countries. He expected consumption to naturally become a larger part of China’s economic growth. It is a shift that officials in Beijing are similarly pushing.值得关注的是,蔡崇信提到消费在中国经济中的占比还远远小于发达国家。他预计消费会自然而然地成为中国经济增长的更大组成部分。这与中国政府力推的经济转型不谋而合。Like many Internet players, Alibaba is looking to mobile as it charts out opportunities.与许多互联网公司一样,阿里巴巴致力发展移动端业务,以寻求更多机会。The company’s revenue from mobile advertising, traditionally less than is made on online desktop ads, almost tripled from a year earlier, to .7 billion. Alibaba said on Tuesday that mobile phones also account for about 62 percent of the total transactions on its e-commerce sites.阿里巴巴的移动端广告收益,原本低于PC端广告,如今增长迅猛,达到17亿美元,几乎是去年的三倍。在周二,阿里巴巴宣布移动端贡献了其电商平台约62%的总交易额。In the conference call, Alibaba executives emphasized new revenue streams that could eventually contribute to the company, including takeout and grocery delivery, a cloud computing unit that serves small businesses, and outreach to rural users.在电话会议上,阿里巴巴的高管强调新增的收入来源最终会为公司做出贡献,这包括餐饮外卖和食品杂货递送、针对小企业的云计算业务,以及针对农村地区用户的拓展。“Today if you look at the landscape in China, online shopping only accounts for 10 percent of total retail in China,” said Alibaba’s new chief executive, Daniel Zhang. “So I would say that is a huge potential, and if we look at people’s geographic sp, half of our population in the low-tier cities and rural areas, that’s why we initiate our rural program.”“时至今日,从总体情况来看,网购只占中国零售业总额的10%。”阿里巴巴新上任的首席执行官张勇(Daniel Zhang)表示,“因此,我认为潜力依然巨大。从地域分布上来看,中国有一半人口生活在中小城市和农村偏远地区,这就是我们启动农村淘宝项目的原因。”Alibaba’s investment strategy is expected to follow this pattern. This month, Alibaba continued its acquisition streak by making an offer to buy the remainder of a Chinese online site, Youku Tudou.阿里巴巴的投资战略将贯彻这一目标。本月,阿里巴巴继续其收购步伐,宣布对在线视频网站优酷和土豆网剩余的股份进行全面收购。“Consumption isn’t just about online shopping, but consumption of digital goods; it’s about consumption of services. We are looking at things that will enhance our position in the consumption economy,” Mr. Tsai said.“消费不仅限于网购商品,也是对数字产品的消费,是对务业的消费。我们重视能提高我们在消费经济中地位的业务。”蔡崇信表示。 /201510/406508


  Airbnb has opened its site to Cuba, making it one of the first US companies to open shop on the island since the dramatic thaw in tensions between Washington and Havana last year.空中食宿(Airbnb)向古巴开放了它的网站,成为自美国与古巴两国关系解冻以来,首家在古巴展开业务的美国企业之一。After five decades of hostility, estrangement, and economic sanctions between the two countries, tourism to Cuba — historically dominated by Canadians and Europeans — is set to spike after President Barack Obama loosened travel restrictions in January.在两国间经历了50年的敌对、疏远和经济制裁之后,今年1月,美国总统巴拉克#8226;奥巴马(Barack Obama)放宽了对美国人赴古巴的旅游限制。这一措施的出台,会令古巴的外国游客出现激增。传统上去到古巴的游客以加拿大人和欧洲人为主。Airbnb expects “significant demand” for Cuban rentals from Americans. US user searches for Cuba on Airbnb’s site have jumped 70 per cent since January, the company said.空中食宿预计,美国人在古巴租房的需求将是巨大的。自1月以来,美国用户在其网站搜索古巴的次数已跃升了70%。The online house-rental start-up now allows licensed American travellers to book rooms at more than 1,000 listings across Cuba, many featuring ornate colonial design and cheap prices: the average rental in Havana costs per night.目前,通过这家在线租房初创企业,得到许可的美国游客能预定遍布古巴的逾1000间房舍的房间。其中许多房间不仅拥有华丽的殖民时代设计,价格也十分低廉:哈瓦那的平均租金为每晚42美元。“For over 50 years, Cuba has been out of reach for most Americans” said Nathan Blecharczyk, Airbnb’s co-founder. “When we founded Airbnb#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;our dream was to help create a world where you could belong anywhere#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.”空中食宿共同创始人内森#8226;布莱沙奇克(Nathan Blecharczyk)表示:“在超过50年的时间里,古巴对多数美国人来说一直可望而不可及。在创建空中食宿时……我们的梦想就是帮助人们打造一个处处是我家的世界……”Airbnb’s “sharing economy” business model makes Cuba a potential sweet spot. It does not face some of the roadblocks for traditional American hotels, who would have to buy property and hire employees to operate on the island.对于空中食宿的“分享经济”业务模式来说,古巴或将是一个绝佳的运营环境。这一模式可以避开传统美国酒店营运商去古巴开展业务会遭遇到的障碍,包括需要买地,还需要聘用员工。Rather, the bn company has soared in popularity as the middleman for people who want to rent out a spare room in their home.相比之下,市值130亿美元的空中食宿在古巴的人气已急剧上升,那些想要出租家中多余房间的人们将它视作中间人。Still, limited internet and phone access in Cuba poses a problem for Airbnb, whose booking system operates entirely online. Only five per cent of Cubans have home access to the internet and less than a fifth have mobile phones, according to US officials.不过,古巴上网和打电话的条件都十分有限,这对整个预订系统都在网上的空中食宿是个大问题。美国官方数据显示,可在家中上网的古巴人只占5%,而拥有移动电话的则不到五分之一。To enter this unplugged community, Airbnb has tapped into a local network of private home-stays — casas particulares — who have dominated the Cuban tourism industry for decades and make up a sizeable income for locals in an otherwise isolated, sluggish economy.此外,由于古巴经济开放的节奏十分缓慢,外国企业仍受制于当地监管规定及美国的制裁举措。官方统计的数字显示,自东欧剧变以来,在古巴设立的外国企业中,六成已关门大吉。 /201504/368562

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