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2019年05月26日 17:43:00来源:度中文

They should therefore save income earned as a result of stimulus in order to have it on hand for when the bill came due.因而,为了在账单到期时手里有钱,他们应当把作为刺激结果而挣到的收入存起来。The multiplier on government spending might in fact be close to zero, as each extra dollar is almost entirely offset by increased private saving.由于每一额外的一美元几乎完全被增长了的私人储蓄所抵消,政府开乘数实际上可能接近于零。The economists behind many of these criticisms clustered in colleges in the Midwest of America, most notably the University of Chicago.当时,许多这些批评背后的经济学家都聚集在美国中西部的大学中,最突出的是芝加哥大学。Because of their proximity to Americas Great Lakes, their approach to macroeconomics came to be known as the “freshwater” school.由于临近五大湖,他们的宏观经济学策略,后来以“淡水”派而闻名。They argued that macroeconomic models had to begin with equations that described how rational individuals made decisions.他们指出,宏观经济学模型必需从描述理性个人如何决策的等式入手。The economic experience of the 1970s seemed to bear out their criticisms of Keynes: governments sought to boost slow-growing economies with fiscal and monetary stimulus, only to find that inflation and interest rates rose even as unemployment remained high.上世纪70年代的经济经历似乎实了他们对凯恩斯的批评:试图以财政和货币刺激推动增长缓慢的经济体的政府发现,通胀和利率甚至在失业仍就居高不下时也上升了。Freshwater economists declared victory.淡水派经济学家宣布了胜利。In an article published in 1979 and entitled “After Keynesian Economics”, Robert Lucas and Tom Sargent, both eventual Nobel-prize winners, wrote that the flaws in Keynesian economic models were “fatal”.在1979年发表的一篇名为《凯恩斯主义经济学之后》的文章中,后来双双成为诺奖得主的罗伯特·卢卡斯和汤姆·萨金特写道,凯恩斯经济学模型中的缺陷是“致命的”。Keynesian macroeconomic models were “of no value in guiding policy”.凯恩斯宏观经济学模型“在指导政策方面毫无价值”。These attacks, in turn, prompted the emergence of “New Keynesian” economists, who borrowed elements of the freshwater approach while retaining the belief that recessions were market failures that could be fixed through government intervention.这些攻击,反过来又促成了在借鉴淡水派策略的同时依旧坚信衰退是可能透过政府干预而得到修正的市场失败的“新凯恩斯主义”经济学家的出现。Because most of them were based at universities on Americas coasts, they were dubbed “saltwater” economists.由于他们大都出自美国大西洋沿岸的大学,因而被称为“咸水”派。The most prominent included Stanley Fischer, now the vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve; Larry Summers, a former treasury secretary; and Greg Mankiw, head of George W.Bushs Council of Economic Advisers.最著名的有现任美联储副主席斯坦利·费舍尔,前财长拉里·萨默斯和小布什经济顾问委员会主席格雷格·曼昆。In their models fiscal policy was all but neutered.在他们的模型中,财政政策几乎都遭到了阉割。Instead, they argued that central banks could and should do the heavy lifting of economic management: exercising a deft control that ought to cancel out the effects of government spending—and squash the multiplier.相反,他们指出,央行能够而且应当挑起经济治理的重任:实施一种应该能够消除政府开影响——进而挤压乘数——的灵巧调控。Yet in Japan since the 1990s, and in most of the rich world since the recession that followed the global financial crisis, cutting interest rates to zero has proved inadequate to revive flagging economies.然而,自上世纪90年代以来,先是在日本,后来在富裕世界的大部分国家中,由于随着全球金融危机而来的衰退,将利率降至零已经被明不适合于重振主要经济体。Many governments turned instead to fiscal stimulus to get their economies going.相反,许多政府转向了财政刺激,以推动经济体前行。In America the administration of Barack Obama succeeded in securing a stimulus package worth over 0 billion.在美国,贝拉克·奥巴马政府成功地确保了价值8000多亿美元的一揽子刺激计划。As a new debate over multipliers flared, freshwater types stood their ground.随着一场新的关于乘数争论的升温,淡水派坚守了它们的阵地。John Cochrane of the University of Chicago said of Keynesian ideas in : “Its not part of what anybody has taught graduate students since the 1960s.年,芝加哥大学的约翰.柯克兰在论及凯恩斯主义的思想时表示:“它们不是自上世纪60年代以来教给毕业生的那部分内容。They are fairy tales that have been proved false.它们是已经被伪的神话故事。It is very comforting in times of stress to go back to the fairy tales we heard as children, but it doesnt make them less false.”在艰难时期回归我们在孩提时代听到的神话故事是非常令人欣慰的。但是,这并不能减少它们的谬误。”The practical experience of the recession gave economists plenty to study, however.然而,衰退的实践经历却给了经济学家很多值得研究的东西。Scores of papers have been published since 2008 attempting to estimate fiscal multipliers.自2008年以来,已经有数十篇试图测算财政乘数的论文出版。Most suggest that, with interest rates close to zero, fiscal stimulus carries a multiplier of at least one.其中大多数论文认为,由于利率接近零,财政刺激相当于至少为1的乘数。The IMF, for instance, concluded that the (harmful) multiplier for fiscal contractions was often 1.5 or more.例如,国际货币基金组织认为,对财政收缩(有害的)乘数经常大于等于1.5。Even as many policymakers remain committed to fiscal consolidation, plenty of economists now argue that insufficient fiscal stimulus has been among the biggest failures of the post-crisis era.即便许多决策者依旧以财政巩固为己任,但是,如今,相当多的经济学家认为,欠充分的财政刺激是后危机时代最大的失误之一。Mr Summers and Antonio Fatas suggest, for example, that austerity has substantially reduced growth, leading to levels of public debt that are higher than they would have been had enthusiastic stimulus been used to revive growth.例如,萨默斯和安东尼奥·法塔斯指出,紧缩极大地拉低了增长,导致了高于在令人振奋的刺激如果被用于重振增长时本应有的公共债务水平。Decades after its conception, Keyness multiplier remains as relevant, and as controversial, as ever.在这个概念问世几十年后,凯恩斯的乘数依旧像以前那样意义重大,像以前那样充满争议。 /201611/480468。

  • Why does everybody know that?We all know that.大家怎么都知道啊 我们都知道Who sp that around to the world?谁传播到世界各地的In what era of time were so many homes just setting ablaze in the middle of the night,什么年代 很多房子会大半夜的起火with naked people outside?Like oh,no!Oh,no!Tell everybody.外面站着没穿衣的人 说着 不 不 告诉大伙儿Also,Im 8 years old.Is that what I need to hear before I rest my little head?而且我才八岁 这是我休息前该听的话吗Forget about the monsters.This thing is going to set on fire at midnight.别管怪物了 房子半夜会着火的Youre fine.Its crazy.Now Im a grown up,I sleep naked and I think what if the house catches on fire?你没事啦 这很疯狂 现在我长大了 裸着睡觉 我想着 如果房子着火了呢Who cares?Whats going to happen,you guys?谁在乎啊 会发生什么事啊 各位Im going to be outside naked,right?Right,yeah.Thats it.Thats it.我会赤身裸体在外面 对吧 是啊 就这样 就这样What kind of ass hole of a neighbor would I have to have,who would make fun of my penis,While my house is on fire?哪种混蛋邻居 会嘲笑我的老二 拜托 我的房子都着火了 好吗Where do I live?Where do I live that these people would make fun of that?我要住在哪里啊 哪里的人会嘲笑这种事啊No,thank you.I say no thank you.不 谢谢 我说了 不 谢谢Guy came up to me after the show and he goes hey,man,youre funy but I would never sleep naked.I dont like my penis on my sheets.有个人表演之后来找我 说 哥们 你很搞笑 但我不会裸着睡觉 我不喜欢老二碰着床单Sir,they are your sheets.Hypothetically you can wipe your penis on everything you own.先生 那是你的床单 理论上你可以用你拥有的任何东西来擦老二201703/495066。
  • 听力参考文本(文本与音频不全一致,敬请谅解):In the last few weeks, intimidating acts have been aimed at Jewish and Muslim communities in Michigan. In Ann Arbor, a bomb threat forced the evacuation of a Hebrew Day School. In Dearborn, threats have been called into Muslim community centers and mosques.David Shtulman, executive director of the Jewish Federation of Greater Ann Arbor, and Kassem Allie, executive administrator for the Islamic Center of America in Dearborn, joined Stateside to discuss their responses to these acts.Shtulman said that the Jewish community is becoming more and more concerned. Anti-Semitism has been on the rise over the last few years, he noted, first in Europe but now also in the ed States. Although the Hebrew Schools evacuation procedure went ;extremely smoothly,; and some younger students may have even considered it an ;unexpected field trip,; anxiety remains.For Shtulman, President Trumps short statement condemning anti-Semitism is not a sufficient reaction. But hes also concerned about the reaction from some who oppose the president.;Instead of talking about resisting whoever is in power,; he said, ;why dont we talk about trying to work with and change the attitude of those who are in power?;;Coming together for a cause is a much more productive manner of approaching something than resisting it at all costs,; he said.Like Shtulman, Allie also characterized his communitys mood as ;one of anxiety.; Muslim organizations like Allies have received a range of negative calls, including many from people who say that Sharia is incompatible with the Constitution.Allie said that for most calls, he tries to respond with an open heart and ;inform [callers] of what the reality is in regard to Sharia, Islam, and the Constitution.; He said he tells callers that Islam is ;totally compatible; with civic law in the ed States, and the religion is one of peace and diversity.;We have, obviously, a faith that teaches us certain traditions, certain rules, and practices that we must abide by based on our traditional faith - not unlike the Jewish community, and not unlike the Catholic and Christian community,; he says.Some callers do seem to want to ;intimidate and bully; Muslims. His organization alerts authorities when they are threatened. But many calls, Allie said, are from out of state, not from Dearborn or its neighbors.Ultimately, Allie wants to respond to each call in its own context.;We embrace civil rights and freedom of speech,; he said. ;However, we will protect our own civil rights and our own freedom of speech and our own ability to practice our faith.;Hear more from our interviews from David Shtulman and Kassem Allie above.201703/495093。
  • To take a walk或许大家听过以下这两个以walk这个字为主的习惯用语。它们是:To walk on air and to walk the floor. To walk on air的意思是,一个人很高兴的时候走路轻飘飘的。to walk the floor是指一个人由于不知道怎么办,或者是担心某一件事的结果而坐立不安。今天我们再来给大家讲解两个以walk这个字为主的习惯用语。第一个是: To take a walk.大家可能都知道to take a walk就是散步。但是,这里讲的to take a walk可不是这个意思,并不是讲话的人邀请你一起去散步。刚好相反,这儿所讲的 to take a walk是非常不客气的一句话。它的意思是:出去,或滚开。所以,to take a walk作为俗语的时候要特别小心。下面这个例子里讲话的人正在发很大的脾气,对他讲话的对象毫不客气。他说:例句-1: I don't want to listen to any more silly advice on how to run my life. Go on, take a walk - get out of here! I'm tired of looking at your stupid face!这人说:别再告诉我,应该怎么管理我的生活,我不要听了。走,你给我出去,滚出去!看见你那张丑脸我就烦。我们再来举一个例子。这是一个人在对他的合夥人讲话。这个合夥人经常通过一些小动作来欺诈他,因此他决定和他分手。他说:例句2: I'm tired of all your lies! You've cheated me too many times and I no longer want to be partners with you. So take a walk - I never want to see you again!这人说:我已经听够了你的谎话。你多次欺骗我,我现在不要再跟你合夥了。你走吧,我以后再也不想再见到你了。在商业界,美国人竞争得非常激烈,欺诈行为也是存在的。这可能在那儿都是普遍存在的。但是,美国的司法制度使得人们有可能通过司法途径来取得公正的解决方法。可是,也有人批评美国的司法制度过于烦琐,律师收费昂贵,没有大笔钱难以得到他们的务。To walk on eggshells下面我们要给大家介绍的是一个非常形像的习惯用语。那就是:To walk on eggshells. Eggshell就是鸡蛋壳。大家都知道,鸡蛋壳是很脆弱的。你要是想在鸡蛋壳上走,你必须非常小心谨慎,因为你处于一个非常微妙和危险的地位。比如说,美国人对人工流产这个问题争论非常激烈。这个问题已经成为选民衡量候选人的标准之一。下面这个例子就是一个竞选官职的候选人在担心他即将发表的讲话。例句3: I have to be very cautious in what I say about abortion. I know I am walking on eggshells. There are very strong feelings on both sides and I don't want to upset people any more than I have to.这位候选人说:我在讲人工流产的问题上必须十分谨慎。我知道我处于非常微妙的地位。在这个问题上,争论双方的情绪都非常激烈。除了不得已,我不想让更多的人对我不满。我们再来举一个例子。下面说话的人是一对夫妇的老朋友,而这对夫妇正在闹离婚。这使他感到左右为难。他说:例句4: I've been friends with both Jack and Mary even before they got married twenty years ago. Now they're in the process of a nasty divorce and I feel like I'm walking on eggshells every time I talk to either one of them.这人说:杰克和玛丽是在二十年前结婚的。在他们结婚前我就跟他们交朋友了。现在,他们正在闹离婚,互相争吵得非常激烈。每次我跟杰克或跟玛丽讲话的时候,我真是要非常谨慎小心。美国的离婚率是比较高的。当然离婚总是一件不愉快的事,吵吵闹闹的,争夺财产是常事。但是,有些美国夫妇虽然经历了离婚这段不愉快的时期,但是他们在离婚后还是能保持友好关系,作为朋友来相待,甚至互相帮忙。有些人虽然离了婚,但是他们仍然跟以前的岳父母,或公公婆婆保持友好关系。这一点是人们都很赞赏的。to let one's hair down To let one's hair down描绘出一幅可爱的画面。过去,西方女子很多都留长头发,出去应酬时把头发盘在头上梳出各种式样来。晚上回家后,她们就把发卡一个个地从头发里拿出来,让头发很自然地披在肩上。 To let one's hair down的实质意思也就是解除表面的装饰,使一切显得很自然、真实和放松。 To let one's hair down不一定用于女子,也可以用在男性。下面的例子就可以说明问题: 例句-3: The president has to make so many official appearances that he seldom gets a chance to let his hair down and enjoy life like ordinary people. 这句话是说:“总统要出席许多公开场合,因此他很少有机会像普通老百姓那样轻松地享受生活。” To let one's hair down 也可以用在朋友之间,就像下面这个例子一样: 例句-4: Sally, we've been good friends for a long time. But lately I get the idea you are very much upset with me. I wish you'd let your hair down and tell me what's wrong to make you feel this way. 这个人对他的朋友说:“萨莉,我们多年来一直是好朋友,可是最近我感到你对我非常不高兴。我希望你能够坦率地告诉我,到底是哪些事让你这么不高兴。” 今天我们讲了两个表示坦率的习惯用语,虽然它们都具有坦率的意思,可以在含义方面有所不同。我们讲的第一个俗语是:no holds barred,这是指在争论或其他场合毫不客气地对别人说自己的想法。今天我们讲的第二个俗语是:to let one's hair down。 To let one's hair down是指轻松、自然,或把心里的话说出来 Downplay(soft-pedal) Downplay这个习惯说法出现在四、五十年前,组成downplay这个复合词的第二部分是play,play这个词可以解释为“播放”音乐或者“弹奏”乐器。这样说来downplay这个词原来的意思可以是低声地播放或者演奏。这也许就是downplay这个习惯说法的出典,当然作为习惯说法是取它的象征意义的。我们听个例子来体会它的意思吧。说话的人在跟同事议论他们的老板。他们公司刚争取到一笔大生意的合同,那意味着公司的业务将大有发展,但是他看不惯老板宣布这条特大喜讯的方式。我们听听他怎么说:例句-1:This will double our business for the next three years. But it's strange how much he downplayed such good news when he told us. Maybe he's afraid that we'll all ask him for higher salaries because we'll all have to work harder than now.他说:这份生意合同在今后三年会把我们的业务加一倍,但是奇怪的是老板却轻描淡写地向我们宣告这么好的一条消息,可能是老板生怕我们都会要求他加工资的缘故吧,因为这一来我们都不得不比现在更卖力地干活了。这种业务大有发展的消息原是值得好好庆贺一番的,而这位老板可能是唯恐张扬了会激起员工纷纷来争工资待遇,所以有心低调处理这个宣告,可见downplay这个习惯说法意思是“轻描淡写”或者“低调处理”。有些语言学家认为downplay这个习惯说法来自钢琴的弱音踏板,弹钢琴的时候踩下弱音踏板会使乐声比平常低柔,这就产生了另一个习惯说法:soft-pedal。 Soft-pedal由soft和pedal两个词组成,原意是钢琴的弱音踏板,而在中间用连词符号连接、当动词用的时候,soft-pedal就跟downplay一样,表示“低调处理”或者“轻描淡写”了。 /201106/139914。
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