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2020年01月24日 07:47:53 | 作者:康常识 | 来源:新华社
Oh, Yahoo, where do I start? We used to be good together back in 2004. 天哪,雅虎(Yahoo),我该从哪里说起呢?2004年我们在一起时曾经很快乐。But now I’m angry and disappointed. 但如今,我感到既生气又失望。And it’s not me, it’s Yahoo.而问题不在我,是雅虎。The data breach the company disclosed last week, affecting more than 1bn users, dates back to 2013 — a year earlier than the breach of 500m accounts reported in September. 雅虎上周公布的数据泄露事件影响到10亿多用户,时间要回溯到2013年,比今年9月报告的5亿账户泄密要早一年。Whether you use Yahoo or not, disabuse yourself immediately of any notion that this breach is like the last. 不管你是否使用雅虎,马上抛弃这次泄密与上次一样的看法吧。The implications are worse and reach beyond the company. 其影响更糟,而且影响范围超越该公司。And it’s not just about the number of people affected.这不仅仅是有多少人受影响的问题。This time Yahoo is saying outright that all affected user passwords were stored in a manner that makes your average cyber security bod go nuts at the madness of the world. 这一次,雅虎直截了当地表示,所有受影响用户的密码存储方式,都会让对网络安全稍有了解的人对世界的疯狂跳脚。Security! experts! slam! Yahoo! management! for! using! old! crypto! ran a headline in The Register, an industry rag, mocking the internet company’s corporate punctuation.行业小报《The Register》的标题是:安全专家抨击雅虎管理层使用旧的加密技术!这里的惊叹号是在嘲弄雅虎这家互联网公司的标识。To understand the frustration, imagine that a password database is like a bike in an area prone to high levels of bike theft — a university town such as Oxford, UK. 要了解人们的失望之情,想象一个密码数据库就像在一个自行车失窃风险很高的地方(例如英国牛津等大学城)停放的一辆自行车。It matters how securely your bike is stored and also how much it’s rendered unrideable with locks.重要的是你的自行车存放方式有多么安全,车锁在多大程度上使自行车无法被盗用。As Yahoo’s password bike is known to have been stolen (again), it’s the additional locks and how strong they are that now matter. 我们已知道,雅虎的密码自行车已(再次)被窃,现在的重要问题是有没有额外的车锁以及它们有多么坚固。In password terms, strength equates to how easy is it to recover the plain-text version of what you type in — such as hansolo81 — from the unusable hashed version that the company stores. 用密码的术语来说,密码强度相当于从该公司存储的无法使用的经过加盐(hashed)处理的版本恢复为你键入的纯文本格式(例如hansolo81)密码的容易程度。A hashed version would look something like: 57dddf57a98dc88c64327fe6bb5b9358. 经过加盐处理的数据看上去像57dddf57a98dc88c64327fe6bb5b9358。If the thieves can recover hansolo81, they can ride it into your bank account, PayPal — or anywhere else you used this password or predictable variants of it, such as Hansolo81, han$olo81 or hansolo82.如果窃贼可以恢复hansolo81,那么他们就能顺藤摸瓜,进入你的账户、PayPal或者其他任何你使用这个密码或这个密码的可预测变异形式的地方,例如Hansolo81、han$olo81或者hansolo82。So you’d think Yahoo would deploy chunky chain locks like those that cycle couriers use. 因此你会以为,雅虎会使用结实的链条锁,就像那些骑车的快递员所用的那种。But, actually, it looks as if the company instead tied a ribbon between the front wheel and the frame. 但实际上,该公司好像是用一条丝带把前轮和车架拴在一起。In the jargon, they used a method involving a function called MD5 — the same poor choice made by adultery website Ashley Madison for some of its users’ passwords, and by music service Last.fm, both of which experienced breaches.用术语来说,他们所用的方法采用了一种被称为MD5的函数,与Ashley Madison为其一部分用户的密码以及音乐务公司Last.fm做出的糟糕选择一样,这两家公司都遭遇信息被窃。Ask tech nerds what they think about MD5 and you’ll hear incredulity that any company (let alone a large, internet-based company) was still using it in 2013, that doing so is outright negligence, that there’s no excuse for it and that it was discredited a couple of decades ago.问问那些科技迷他们对MD5的看法吧,你会听到他们说,任何公司(更别提一家大型互联网公司了)如果在2013年仍使用这种方法简直匪夷所思;这么做是绝对的失职;对此没有任何借口;这种方法在20年前就被否定了。By the time of the 2014 breach, Yahoo had nearly finished a wildly overdue upgrade to its locks, switching to bcrypt. 到了发生2014年那次黑客入侵时,雅虎已接近完成早该进行的对其密码加锁方法的升级,即改用bcrypt加密工具。If well implemented, this makes its password bike unusable to thieves. 如果实施得当,这将让窃贼无法盗用雅虎的密码自行车。Getting from 57dddf57a98dc88c64327fe6bb5b9358 to hansolo81 would be very unlikely. 从57dddf57a98dc88c64327fe6bb5b9358恢复到hansolo81将是极不可能的。So, while that breach endangered users, it was a less epic fail than the more recently reported compromise.因此,尽管那次泄密危及用户,但与最近报道的事件相比,那还是一个不那么严重的失误。It’s worth being clear about the consequences of Yahoo’s incredibly poor security practices as recently as three years ago: the company has probably unleashed the single biggest known data set showing how the world constructs passwords. 值得明确雅虎在仅仅3年前非常糟糕的安全做法的后果:该公司很可能泄露了已知单一最大数据集,显示世界是如何构建密码的。This is a powerful tool for guessing one’s way into accounts, especially on services that don’t limit such attempts well or offer additional security measures, such as two-factor authentication. 这是依靠猜测侵入账户的强大工具,特别是对于没有很好地限制这种企图或者没有提供额外安全措施(例如二元验)的务。And it’s a gift to malicious actors who increasingly know us better than we know ourselves.这是送给那些恶意黑客的一份厚礼,后者对我们的了解日益超过我们自己。Also, Yahoo can force password resets only on its own service. 另外,雅虎只能强迫用户在其网站上重置密码。There is nothing Yahoo can do to make people change identical or similar passwords used on other sites.它无法让用户修改在其他网站使用的同样或类似的密码。Furthermore, as with the last breach, the company hasn’t disclosed how many security questions and answers were badly stored. 此外,与上次泄密一样,雅虎没有披露有多少安全问题和是以糟糕的方式存储的。They state only that the data were kept either encrypted or unencrypted — the latter being in able text. 他们只是声明,这些数据的存储方式可能加密,也可能未加密,后一种意味着可读文本。How many people can remember whether or not they once had a Yahoo account, let alone what security information they used, and whether they used that same information in their other accounts? 有多少人还能记得他们是否曾经拥有过雅虎账户?更别提他们用过的安全信息、以及他们是否在其他账户上使用过同样的信息了。Where else did you use your mother’s maiden name, first pet, favourite colour, school or teacher?你还在哪里使用过你母亲的娘家姓氏、第一只宠物的名字、最喜欢的颜色、学校或老师的名字?The consequences of organisations’ poor security decisions will come back to haunt us. 公司糟糕安全决定的后果将回过头来困扰我们。I only hope Yahoo marks the worst, if not the last.我只希望雅虎标志着最糟糕的的安全实践,如果不是最后一个的话。 /201612/485568Matt Brittin, president of Google’s European operations, complained this week that EU officials “could be better informed than they are”. It might help if Google did not write “confidential” on every page of its contracts with mobile phonemakers. 谷歌(Google)欧洲业务总裁马特#8226;布里廷(Matt Brittin)上周抱怨称,欧盟(EU)官员“本可以更懂行一点”。如果谷歌没有在与手机制造商所签协议的每一页上都标注“机密”字样,或许会有利于欧盟官员更懂行。 It is another tough week in Brussels for Alphabet, Google’s parent company. Having been assailed over the “right to be forgotten” in search results, how it competes in online shopping and the tax it pays in Europe, it faces EU antitrust charges over its Android mobile software. With dominance of internet search comes a lot of bother. 对谷歌的母公司Alphabet而言,这是其又一次在布鲁塞尔吃苦头的一周。针对在搜索结果中给予用户“被遗忘权”(right to be forgotten)、网络购物领域的竞争手段以及在欧洲缴税等问题,谷歌已经遭受过痛击,而今,它又面临欧盟对其安卓(Android)移动操作系统提出的反垄断指控。互联网搜索领域的主导地位给谷歌带来了很多烦扰。 In general, I sympathise with Mr Brittin. There are, as he says, “some places in Europe#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;where the first inclination is to protect the past from the future”. It is being harshly treated over how it displays shopping results and the right of European citizens to eliminate search links they dislike. But on Android — perhaps the most important case for Google’s future — he is wrong. 总的来说,我比较同情布里廷。正如他所言,“欧洲某些地方的……第一反应通常是保护过去不被未来碾压”。在显示购物搜索结果以及保护欧洲公民移除自己不喜欢的搜索链接的权利方面,谷歌都遭到了苛刻对待。但在安卓这个或许对谷歌未来最重要的案件上,他错了。 Google is Microsoft light. The way that it has exerted influence over how mobile phones run on Android is subtler and more calculated than Microsoft’s brute force approach to broadening its desktop monopoly in the early 2000s. While Microsoft insisted on its right to repel all competitors by packing what it felt like into Windows, Google has left open a degree of choice. 谷歌比微软(Microsoft)更高明。比起微软在2000年代初为扩大其对台式机的垄断而采取的强力方式,谷歌对手机如何运行安卓系统施加影响的方式更不易被觉察、更处心积虑。微软通过随意所欲地在Windows系统中捆绑安装各种软件,强硬地坚持其打击所有竞争对手的权利,而谷歌则留出了一定的自由选择余地。 Google’s strategy for Android has been a masterpiece of craftiness, a case fit for a business school study of how to advance without appearing to attack. Android “fosters competition at every level of the mobile market”, Eric Schmidt, Google’s chairman, insisted repeatedly at a Senate committee in 2011. Yet, somehow, Google still ended up firmly in control. 谷歌的安卓战略是缜密构思的典范,适合作为商学院研究如何不露痕迹地进攻的经典案例。谷歌董事长埃里克#8226;施密特(Eric Schmidt) 2011年在美国参议院委员会再三坚称,安卓系统“在移动市场的各个层面都促进了竞争”。然而,不知为何,谷歌最终依然实现了对市场的牢牢控制。 It is worth examining how Google did this — how Android ended up with 81 per cent of the global smartphone market last year, while Google applications such as search were loaded on most of Europe’s Android phones. It was quite a coup but Margrethe Vestager, EU competition commissioner, should fillet the deals that helped to enable it. 值得我们研究的是,谷歌是如何做到这些的——去年,安卓占到了全球智能手机市场的81%,欧洲多数安卓版手机都安装了谷歌搜索等谷歌应用。谷歌确实下了一盘妙棋,但欧盟竞争事务专员玛格丽特#8226;维斯特格(Margrethe Vestager)应该仔细研究一下帮助谷歌实现了这一结果的那些协议。 First, in 2005, Google acquired Android, a small company making an operating system based on Linux open source software. It seems implausible now but it worried at the time that its search franchise could be locked out of mobile by powerful phonemakers such as BlackBerry (it was long ago). 首先,谷歌于2005年收购了安卓,那是一家小公司,设计了一款基于Linux开源软件的操作系统。如今看来似乎难以置信,但当时谷歌担心,谷歌搜索可能会被黑莓(BlackBerry)等强大的手机制造商封杀(确实是很久以前的事了,久到黑莓还很强大)。 Although Google kept Android free, its claim to being open source is tenuous. Google controls software development and makes any phone maker that wants to use the Android trademark stick to its standards. Any company that “forks” Android, as Amazon did with the Fire phone — using the source code in its own way — loses the brand and the marketing clout that comes with it. 虽然谷歌一直未对使用安卓系统收费,但其开放源代码的承诺却经不起推敲。谷歌控制着软件开发,让任何想使用安卓商标的手机制造商都得遵循它的标准。任何对安卓系统进行“分”(fork)、也就是用自己的方式使用源代码的公司——如亚马逊(Amazon)在Fire手机上尝试的那样——都无法再使用安卓这个品牌,也就丧失了这个品牌附带的市场影响力。 /201604/438958Geely is launching a mass-market car in Europe, becoming the first Chinese automaker to push into the region in its own right.吉利(Geely)准备在欧洲推出一款大众市场汽车,成为首家凭借自身力量进军欧洲的中国汽车制造商。The group, which owns Volvo Cars and the London Taxi Company, will today unveil Lynk amp; Co, which aims to compete directly with Volkswagen, the market leader in Europe, and appeal to younger buyers.旗下拥有沃尔沃汽车(Volvo Cars)和伦敦出租车公司(London Taxi Company)的吉利集团,将于今日推出Lynk amp; Co品牌汽车,旨在与欧洲市场领导者大众(Volkswagen)展开直接竞争,并吸引年轻买家。A Lynk-branded SUV will launch in China next year and be rolled out to Europe by the end of 2018, followed by smaller cars such as a saloon and a hatchback.Lynk品牌的SUV将于明年在中国发售,并将在2018年底之前在欧洲推出,随后还将推出轿车、掀背车等更小型的汽车。The move is expected to spur other Chinese companies to push into Europe to offset slowing growth at home.预计此举将刺激其他中国企业进军欧洲,以补偿国内汽车销量增长的放缓。International carmakers that want to do business in China must partner with local companies under state law. This has given Chinese manufacturers access to western technology, design and manufacturing practices.中国法律规定,想要在中国经营的跨国汽车制造商必须与当地企业成立合资公司。这使得中国制造商可以获得西方的技术、设计和制造方法。“There is no question that other [Chinese carmakers] will follow,” said Michael Dunne, an expert on the Chinese motor industry. “Their home market’s phase as a cash cow has come to an end, and the quality of Chinese-branded vehicles is now comparable with international brands.”“毫无疑问,其他(中国汽车制造商)将紧随其后,”研究中国汽车工业的专家邓凯(Michael Dunne)说,“国内市场作为摇钱树的阶段已经结束,中国品牌汽车的品质如今可以与国际品牌媲美。”Their aim, he said, was to blend the best aspects of low-cost manufacturing with European design and quality. “If they get it right, there’s plenty of space to take on European makers with heavy overheads.”他表示,中国车企的目标是将低成本制造业的优势与欧洲的设计和品质结合起来。“如果做得好的话,将有足够空间与经营成本高昂的欧洲制造商进行较量。”The new marque, which was designed in Sweden at Geely’s China Europe vehicle technology centre, will have a higher price tag than Geely cars but lower than Volvo. It aims to compete with VW in Europe.该款新品牌汽车由吉利在瑞典的欧洲汽车技术中心设计,售价将高于吉利汽车,但低于沃尔沃。其目标是与大众汽车在欧洲竞争。“We were told it should feel European, specifically northern European,” said Peter Horbury, Geely’s design director.吉利设计总监彼得.霍伯里(Peter Horbury)称:“我们接到的指示是,这款车应具有欧洲风格,特别是北欧风格。”Breaking into Europe would help Geely “become a global automotive company”, said An Conghui, group president. “People will ask why the world needs another car brand. That is like asking why you need Apple when you have Motorola. To build a brand takes time, but it will not take as much time to build the brand as in the past.”打入欧洲将帮助吉利“成为一家全球汽车公司”,吉利集团总裁安聪慧表示,“人们会问,为什么这个世界需要一个新的汽车品牌。这就像在问,当你手里有托罗拉(Motorola)时为什么还需要苹果(Apple)。打造一个品牌需要时间,但不会像过去那么久。”The car will be manufactured in China “but it’s entirely possible that we will move to Europe to manufacture the cars in the future”, Mr An added.这款车将在中国制造,“但未来迁至欧洲制造也是完全有可能的,”安聪慧补充道。Geely will not use a traditional dealer network or advertising to promote the new car. It will focus on social media to reach younger drivers.吉利将不会利用传统经销商网络或广告来推销该车。它将通过聚焦社交媒体来影响年轻车手。The Lynk 01 is hailed as the “most connected car”, in an effort to woo buyers who are more concerned with access to streaming services than with traditional car performance metrics such as torque or horsepower.Lynk 01车型被誉为“最互联的汽车”,旨在吸引相对扭矩或动力等传统汽车性能指标更关心获得流媒体务的买家。It will also roll out car-sharing schemes linked to the Lynk brand.吉利还将推出与Lynk品牌相关的汽车共享计划。 /201610/472910This month, the European Parliament voted in favour of a resolution to create a new ethical-legal framework for robots. The Commission does not have to follow the parliament’s recommendations, but if it refuses it will have to explain why.欧洲议会(European Parliament)本月通过一项决议,其内容是建立针对机器人的新的伦理-法律框架。欧盟委员会不必遵循前者的建议,但如果拒绝,它必须解释原因。The basic idea is reasonable. Today, we spend increasing amounts of time in the infosphere. In this digital ocean, robots are the real natives: we scuba dive, they are like fish. Robots of all kinds will multiply and proliferate, making the infosphere even more their own element. Add artificial intelligence, smartphones, cloud computing, big data, machine learning and the internet of things, and it becomes obvious that there is no time to waste.基本理念是合理的。当今,我们在信息空间花费的时间日益增多。在这个数字海洋里,机器人才是真正的本地人:我们戴着水肺潜水,而它们就像鱼一样。各种各样的机器人将会迅速增加和繁殖,使信息空间在更大程度上成为它们如鱼得水的环境。再加上人工智能、智能手机、云计算、大数据、机器学习和物联网,显然没有时间可以浪费了。We are laying down foundations for the mature information societies of the near future, so we need new ethical frameworks to determine which forms of artificial agency we are happy to see flourishing in them. Against this background, the EU’s initiative provokes mixed feelings: excitement at the aspiration but disappointment at the implementation. There is too much fantasy and too little realism.我们正在为不久的将来的成熟信息社会奠定基础,因此我们需要新的伦理框架来确定:我们乐于看到什么形式的人工能动性在那样的社会绽放?在这样的背景下,欧盟的倡议让人喜忧参半:既有对抱负的激动,也有对实施的失望。幻想太多,现实太少。Consider two key issues: jobs and responsibilities. Robots replace human workers. Retraining unemployed people was never easy, but it is more challenging now that technological disruption is sping so rapidly, widely and unpredictably. There will be many new forms of employment in other corners of the infosphere — think of how many people have opened virtual shops on eBay. But new and different skills will be needed. More education and a universal basic income may mitigate the impact of robotics on the labour market.想想两个关键问题:工作岗位和责任。机器人取代人类劳动者。重新培训失业人员从来都不是一件容易的事情,而随着科技造成的扰乱如此迅速蔓延、影响广泛和不可预测,这变得更具挑战性。在信息空间的其他角落将出现许多新的就业形式——想想有多少人在eBay上开了虚拟商店。但人们将需要新的、不同的技能。增加教育机会和实行全民基本收入或许可以缓解机器人对劳动市场的影响。Society will need more resources. Unfortunately, robots do not pay taxes. And more profitable companies are unlikely to pay enough extra taxes to compensate for the loss of revenues. So robots cause a higher demand for taxpayers’ money and a lower supply of it.社会将需要更多资源。遗憾的是,机器人不交税。而比较盈利的企业不太可能缴纳足够多的额外税款来补偿财政收入的损失。也就是说,机器人带来对纳税人资金的更高需求,却也带来更少的税收收入。How can one get out of this tailspin? The report correctly identifies the problem. But its original recommendation of a robo tax on companies that employ robots — a proposal that did not survive into the final text approved the parliament — may not be feasible, for what counts as a robot? It may also work as a disincentive to innovation.如何摆脱这种困境?该报告正确地界定了这个难题。但其原本提出的方案(对使用机器人的企业征收“机器人税”;该提案未能进入议会通过的最终文本)或许并不可行,因为什么才算机器人呢?这还可能阻碍创新。And where should we allocate legal responsibilities? If my robot breaks my neighbour’s window, who is responsible? The company who produced it, the shop who sold it, I the owner, or the robot itself — if it has become completely autonomous through a learning process, capable of intelligent action? The report suggests a “specific legal status” for more advanced robots, as “electronic persons responsible for making good any damage they may cause”, which has been approved in the final document. So companies may not pay a robo tax and may not even be liable for some kinds of robots. This is a mistake.此外,我们如何分配法律责任?如果我的机器人打破了我邻居的窗户,谁该为此负责?生产这台机器人的公司、销售这台机器人的商店、我这个所有者、还是机器人自己——如果它通过学习过程,变得完全自主,能够做出智能行动?报告建议,对比较先进的机器人赋予一种“特殊的法律地位”,将它们视为“有责任赔偿它们可能引起的任何损失的电子人”,这一点在最终的文件得到认可。这样一来,企业或许无需缴纳机器人税,甚至可能无需对某些机器人承担赔偿责任。这是一个错误。There is no need to adopt science fiction solutions to solve practical problems of legal liability. Jurisprudence aly provides a solution.没必要用科幻小说里的解决方案来解决法律责任归属的实际问题。法理学已经提供了一个解决方案。If robots become as good as human agents — think of the droids in Star Wars — we can adapt rules as old as Roman law, in which the owner of enslaved persons is responsible for any damage. As the Romans knew, attributing some kind of legal personality to robots (or slaves) would relieve those who should control them of their responsibilities. And how would rights be attributed? Do robots have the right to own data? Should they be “liberated”?如果机器人变得像人类行为人一样优秀——想想《星球大战》(Star Wars)里的机器人——那么我们可以借鉴罗马法这样的古老规则。罗马法规定奴隶的主人要对奴隶造成的任何损坏负责。正如罗马人看到的,将某种法律人格赋予机器人(或者奴隶)会让那些应该控制它们(他们)的人逃脱责任。而且,权利又该如何归属?机器人有权利拥有数据吗?它们应该被“解放”吗?It may be fun to speculate about such questions, but it is also distracting and irresponsible, given the pressing issues at hand. We are stuck in the wrong conceptual framework. The debate is not about robots but about us, and the kind of infosphere we want to create. We need less science fiction and more philosophy.围绕这些问题进行猜测也许很有趣,但考虑到当前面临的迫切问题,这也是让人分心和不负责任的。我们陷入了错误的概念框架。这场辩论与机器人无关,而与我们有关,与我们想要创建什么样的信息空间有关。我们需要少一些科幻小说,多一些哲学。 /201702/494584

The FBI has managed to break into the iPhone belonging to alleged San Bernardino gunman Syed Farook without Apple#39;s help.在没有苹果公司协助的情况下,美国联邦调查局已成功破解圣贝纳迪诺击案嫌犯塞义德·法鲁克的iPhone。;The government has now successfully accessed the data stored on Farook#39;s iPhone and therefore no longer requires the assistance from Apple,; the Justice Department said in the filing.司法部在文件中表示:“美国政府现在已经成功访问存储在法鲁克的iPhone中的数据了,因此不再需要来自苹果公司的帮助了。”It is unclear what useful data, if any, was found on Mr Farook#39;s device.目前还不清楚从法鲁克的设备上发现了什么样的有用的数据。The FBI had earlier this month requested Apple#39;s help in getting pass the passcode lock on the phone, but was rebuffed by Apple, which cited issues of privacy and a need to preserve strong encryption.FBI在本月早些时候曾请求苹果帮助解锁这部手机,但苹果以保护隐私以及维护加密技术的强度为由,拒绝了这一请求。The move comes a week after officials announced a ;third party; had come forward to help investigators unlock the phone.一周前官员们宣布已请来;第三方;帮助调查人员解锁这部手机。Apple#39;s opposition to helping the government get phone data prompted a national debate in the US over digital privacy rights and national security. The FBI had argued it would impossible to access the device without Apple creating a backdoor.苹果拒绝帮助政府获取手机上的数据引发了就美国数字隐私权和国家安全的全国性的辩论。联邦调查局也曾一度认为,如果苹果公司不去打开一个后门,他们将无法访问该设备。 /201603/434814

Petrochina Soars, But How Big Is It?PetroChina Co., the main oil and gas producer in China, became the world's biggest company in the course of a few hours of trading yesterday. Or did it?中国主要石油和天然气生产商中国石油天然气股份有限公司(Petrochina Co., 简称:中国石油)在周一几个小时的交易时间内成为了全球最大的公司。但是,它真的名副其实吗?PetroChina's stunning debut on the Shanghai Stock Exchange again demonstrated the force of China's bull market, which has more than doubled its benchmark stock index so far this year. The company, which also lists shares in Hong Kong and American depositary shares in New York, saw its Shanghai share price more than double on its first day of trading after it raised .9 billion in its first share sale in mainland China. By some measures, PetroChina could now be valued at more than trillion, which would make it by far the world's largest company by market capitalization.中国石油在上海券交易所首日上市令人震惊的表现再次显示了中国牛市的力量,今年以来中国股市已经上涨了一倍多。中国石油A股在首个交易日就上涨了一倍多,此前它在中国大陆共筹得89亿美元。按一些标准来衡量,中国石油的估值超过了1万亿美元,使它成为全球市值最大的公司。中国石油还分别在香港及纽约交所上市交易。Yet the soaring valuations put on PetroChina and other Chinese-listed companies seem to say more about the problems and idiosyncrasies of China's market than the performance of the companies themselves.不过,中国石油及其他在中国上市的公司估值的飙升似乎更多体现的是中国股市的问题和特征,而非上市公司本身的表现。In fact, it is very difficult to determine the real value of Chinese government-controlled companies like PetroChina or Industrial amp; Commercial Bank of China Ltd., a state-controlled lender that is the largest financial institution by some measures of market capitalization. They have complicated corporate structures that keep most of their shares locked up in government hands, with the few that are publicly traded sp across different markets. The scarcity can drive up prices. And the problem is compounded by China's capital controls, which can cause domestic prices to differ greatly from those on other markets.事实上,很难对像中国石油和中国工商(Industrial amp; Commercial Bank of China Ltd.)这种由中国政府控股的公司进行准确的估值。这些企业拥有复杂的公司架构,它们大部分的股份控制在政府手中,少数公开交易的股份散落在不同的市场中。这种股份的稀缺性也会推高股价。中国对资本的控制使这个问题更加突出,因为这种做法导致中国上市公司的股价在国内市场与其他市场之间产生了巨大差距。按某些标准计算,中国工商是全球市值最大的金融机构。PetroChina, for example, sold a mere 2.2% of its share capital to domestic investors in its Shanghai initial public offering. When those shares made their debut on the exchange yesterday, their price rocketed to a close of 43.96 yuan (US.90) each, from the IPO price of 16.70 yuan.以中国石油为例,该公司在上海的首次公开募股(IPO)仅向国内投资者出售了2.2%的股份。在周一首个交易日中,中国石油A股股价开盘大幅走高,最终收于每股人民币43.96元(约合5.90美元),其IPO价格为16.70元。Applying that price to all of PetroChina's outstanding shares would give the company a market capitalization of around .08 trillion, twice that of industry giant Exxon Mobil Corp., the company that, at least before yesterday, had the highest market value in the world, at around 8 billion. But if you apply the price of PetroChina's Hong Kong-listed shares -- HK (US.32) each, as of yesterday's close -- to all PetroChina's outstanding shares, then the company is valued at closer to 4 billion. The valuation of PetroChina's American depositary shares is close to the Hong Kong shares. Yet about 86% of PetroChina's shares are held by its state-owned parent and don't trade on any exchange, and it is hard to know what price they would fetch if all of them were actually to come to market.如果中国石油全部已发行股都按这一价格计算,那么它的市值将达到1.08万亿美元,几乎是行业巨头埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Corp.)的两倍。至少在上个交易日,埃克森美孚仍以4,880亿美元的市值坐在全球市值最大公司的宝座上。如果中国石油全部已发行股用H股价格(周一收于18港元)计算,它的市值接近4,240亿美元。中国石油的美国存托股票估值与H股接近。然而,中国石油大约86%股份仍在其国有母公司的手中,且不公开交易。一旦有一天真的全部公开交易,也很难预知它们的定价。'This does not mean that PetroChina is bigger than Exxon Mobil,' says Zhou Chunsheng, a professor of finance at Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business in Beijing. 'We cannot compare them based on stock prices, because their stock prices are obtained from different markets.' By law, Chinese investors can't invest significantly outside of China, and foreign investors are allowed to invest only tiny amounts in Chinese stocks known as Class A shares. That means prices reflect high demand from local investors with few other investment options.长江商学院(Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business)金融学教授周春生表示,这并不意味着中国石油比埃克森美孚大。由于两家公司的股价来自不同的市场,因此不应该用股价来对两家公司进行简单比较。根据中国的法律,中国国内投资者对外投资选择非常有限,而外国投资者也只能对少量A股进行投资。这也就意味着中国股市价格反映的是中国国内投资者在投资渠道有限的情况下高涨的投资需求。Given that uncertainty, another way of valuing the company would be to apply prices only to what investors can actually buy and sell -- the so-called free float. The total value of PetroChina's publicly traded shares is about .5 billion. That's still large, but nowhere close to Exxon Mobil.鉴于这种不确定因素,或许可以采用另一个方法来对其估值:仅计算投资者能够买卖的股份──也就是所谓的流通股。中国石油公开交易股份的总价值为725亿美元。虽然这个数字也很大,但不过是埃克森美孚市值的一个零头。It is far from clear that PetroChina's business deserves to be valued higher than its U.S. rival. PetroChina's Class A shares are trading around 50 times this year's forecast earnings, compared with 20 times earnings for its Hong Kong-listed stock. That compares with an average of 10 times forecast earnings for big oil companies listed internationally.中国石油的业务是否有理由获得比其美国竞争对手更高的估价也很不好说。中国石油A股基于今年预期收益的市盈率约为50倍,而中国石油H股的市盈率约为20倍。而在国际股市交易的大型石油公司基于预期收益的市盈率平均为10倍。Exxon Mobil is also significantly bigger than PetroChina. PetroChina produced 1.06 billion barrels of oil equivalent last year, compared with Exxon Mobil's 1.56 billion. Exxon Mobil reported revenue in 2006 of 5.5 billion and earned a net profit of .5 billion. PetroChina's 2006 revenue was .9 billion and net profit was billion.埃克森美孚实际规模也比中国石油要大很多。去年中国石油的产量为10.6亿桶油当量,而埃克森美孚为15.6亿桶油当量。2006年,埃克森美孚的收入为3,655亿美元,净利润为395亿美元;中国石油2006年收入为919亿美元,净利润为190亿美元。Of course, the stock market values companies more on what they will produce in the future than what they produced in the past, and PetroChina does seem to have strong growth prospects. The company projects its production will increase at 4% to 6% a year in the future, while most other major oil companies aren't expected to grow at all.当然,股市更多地是根据未来的业绩、而不是过去的表现来对公司进行估值的,中国石油的确拥有良好的增长前景。该公司预计今后的年产量增幅将达到4%至6%,而其它多数石油巨头预计都难以实现增长。That is because PetroChina, through acquisitions and better production and exploration techniques, has been able to find enough new oil and gas to continually increase its reserves even as it pumps more. Gordon Kwan, head of China energy for CLSA Asia Pacific Markets, is still bullish on the stock, arguing that PetroChina will benefit more than its overseas rivals from continued high oil prices.这是因为,即便是在其石油产量不断增加的情况下,中国石油也能通过收购和提高勘探开发技术获得足够的新油气资源,从而保持储量的继续增长。里昂券亚太区市场(CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets)中国能源研究部主管关荣乐(Gordon Kwan)仍看好该股。他认为中国石油从油价持续上涨中获得的好处要多于其海外竞争对手。Whatever its prospects, PetroChina is also benefiting from the overall enthusiasm of Chinese investors, whose unchecked eagerness to put money into stocks has drawn increasing official concern. The seemingly unstoppable rise of China's stock market has drawn worrisome comparisons to the bull markets in Japan and Taiwan in the 1980s, and to the U.S. technology bubble.不管前景如何,中国投资者目前的高涨热情无疑让中国石油受益匪浅,他们源源不断将资金投入到股市中的做法已经让政府部门越来越感到担忧。中国股市无休止的上涨让人们担心上世纪80年代日本和台湾牛市以及美国科技股泡沫破裂的一幕可能会重演。'It's very difficult, almost impossible, to predict bubbles. But what we can say is that based on historical examples, this kind of miracle is never sustainable,' said Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist for China Galaxy Securities in Beijing. 'Whether foreign investors believe in this or not is up to them.'中国券有限公司(China Galaxy Securities Co.)首席经济学家左小蕾表示,预测泡沫非常困难,几乎是不可能的。但我们可以说,根据历史情况看,这种奇迹从来都是不可持续的。海外投资者是否相信这点取决于他们自身。 /200808/46203

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