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乌鲁木齐米东区治疗白瓷娃娃多少钱乐视典范阿克苏市做隆胸多少钱

2020年01月24日 07:27:21
来源:四川新闻网
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The oil price may be falling and global demand is “remarkably” subdued, according to a report last week from the International Energy Agency. But this has not stopped the former chief executive of BP, Tony Hayward, from issuing an uncomfortable warning.国际能源署(International Energy Agency)上周发布的一份报告显示,全球石油需求“明显”下滑,油价也在下跌。但这并不能阻止英国石油(BP)前首席执行官唐熙华(Tony Hayward)发出了令人不安的警告。In an interview with the FT, Mr Hayward, who these days runs an oil company in Iraqi Kurdistan, worries that international sanctions against Russia’s oil sector are storing up trouble for the west. They risk cutting investment and damaging supplies from the world’s third-largest producer. The threat may have been masked by increases in American liquid petroleum production, which has surged above its 1970 zenith. But the US may not go on rising for ever, Mr Hayward notes. And when that happens, where will the world find its next new source of supply?唐熙华目前管理着伊拉克库尔德斯坦的一家石油公司。在接受英国《金融时报》采访时,他表示,国际社会针对俄罗斯石油行业的制裁正在给西方埋下越来越多隐患。这些制裁可能会削减这个全球第三大产油国的得到的投资并破坏其供应。这一威胁可能已被美国液态石油产量增加所掩盖——美国的液态石油产量已飙升至超过上世纪70年代峰值的水平,但唐熙华指出,美国的产量可能不会永远增长下去。到那时,全球将在哪里找到下一个新的供应源?It is a good question. Producing oil has become harder both for reasons of geology and politics; a crude price stuck around 0 per barrel is evidence enough. It may become harder still. Talk about an “age of abundance” is justified only from a North American perspective. Elsewhere it is a different story: one of decline in fading regions such as the North Sea, and political and security threats in countries from Iraq to Iran and Venezuela. Since 2005, all of the increase in the world’s crude production has come from the US.这是一个好问题。由于地质和政治原因,石油生产变得更加困难;原油价格徘徊在每桶100美元左右就足以说明问题。未来难度可能会变得更大。有一种我们身处“富足时代”的说法,但其合理性只是从北美的角度而言。在其他地区则是另一番情景:北海等地区产量日益衰落,从伊拉克到伊朗和委内瑞拉等多国面临政治和安全威胁。自2005年以来,全球原油产量的增量都来自美国。Looking ahead a few years, nothing is likely to change. Global oil demand will continue to go up over the long term as the emerging economies become steadily wealthier. Supply, however, will not rise in lockstep. The IEA predicted last year that over 2012-18 the largest contributors of new supplies to world markets, after the US and Canada, would be Iraq and Brazil. But companies in Brazil are struggling with the technical challenges of its deepwater fields and political interference. Iraq is in chaos. Neither country can be relied upon.未来几年,一切可能都不会改变。长期而言,随着新兴市场的不断富有,全球石油需求将继续上涨。然而,供应不会随之增加。国际能源署去年预测,2012年至2018年,除美国和加拿大以外,全球市场新供应的最大贡献者将是伊拉克和巴西。但巴西企业正艰难应对深水油田的技术挑战和政治干预。伊拉克仍身陷混乱。这两个国家都没法依赖。Mr Hayward is right to worry about security of supply. Fortunately, however, the developed world need not panic quite yet. The new sanctions on Russia will take time to bite. They do not yank existing barrels off the market. Rather, they make it harder for Russia to develop shale or push out the frontiers of exploration into the Arctic – activity that will only drive production some years in the future. The risk that Mr Hayward identifies is more akin to a slow-moving ratchet than a 1973-style sudden price spike. The west has time to plot its response.唐熙华对供应安全的担忧是正确的。然而,幸运的是,发达国家现在还不需要那么恐慌。针对俄罗斯的新制裁将需要时间产生影响。这些制裁不会将现有的石油从市场撤走,而是将令俄罗斯更难开发页岩资源,或者将勘探前沿推进至北极地区,而俄罗斯页岩开发和北极勘探都只是提升未来石油产量的活动。唐熙华眼中的风险更类似于一种缓慢的恶化,而非1973年那种突然的价格飙升。西方有时间计划其应对措施。For consuming countries, that means doing what they can to strengthen their own production and infrastructure. The US, for example, should approve the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada, and help its oil industry by allowing exports of crude. Governments must ensure they do not throttle their industries with excessive taxation.对于石油消费国而言,这意味着尽其所能增强本国的产量和基础设施。例如,美国应批准加拿大Keystone XL石油管道的建设,并允许原油出口,助力其石油业。政府必须确保他们不会通过过高的税收遏制本国石油行业。Abroad, the US should do more to help the development of alternative sources of supply – including the shale reserves of countries such as China and Argentina. Diplomatically, the answer is clearly not to appease Russia’s leader, Vladimir Putin, and thus leave his conduct in Ukraine unchallenged. But Washington and its allies should try harder to stabilise failing producing states, such as Libya and Iraq.在海外,美国应采取更多措施帮助开发替代供应来源,包括中国和阿根廷等国的页岩储备。从外交上来说,安抚俄罗斯领导人弗拉基米尔#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin),对其在乌克兰的行为睁一眼闭一眼,显然不是正确的做法。但美国及其盟友应更努力地稳定利比亚和伊拉克等产量正在衰退的产油国。Consumers must be encouraged to use oil more thriftily – either through higher taxes or regulations enforcing fuel efficiency. Fuel subsidies must be cut – especially in the Middle East and Asia. Lastly, governments should continue the search for alternatives, whether biofuels or electric vehicles.我们必须鼓励消费者在使用石油方面更为节俭,要么通过提高税收,要么执行燃油效率方面的监管要求。必须削减燃油补贴,特别是在中东和亚洲。最后,政府应继续寻找替代能源方案,不管是生物燃料还是电动汽车。We have been living through a period of calm in oil markets, in spite of the Arab uprisings and the turmoil in Ukraine. This will not last for ever. A wise world would plan ahead.尽管阿拉伯爆发暴动,乌克兰也出现动荡,但我们一直生活在石油市场的平静期。这种状况不会永远持续下去。明智的世界会未雨绸缪。 /201409/329396阿拉尔市激光除斑多少钱China is becoming an ageing society. But, unlike other ageing societies such as Japan and Germany, it is getting old when its income is still relatively low. In terms of the share of old people in the population, China today looks like Japan at the end of 1980s, but in terms of per-capita gross domestic product, it has just reached the level of Japan in the early 1970s. Japan started more than 20 years of stagnation in the early 1990s, and many people fear that China will follow its footsteps in the next 10 to 20 years.中国正步入老龄化社会。但和日本和德国等其他老龄化社会不同,中国在收入还相对较低的时候就开始老龄化了。就老年人占总人口比例而言,当下的中国就像是上世纪80年代末的日本,但就人均国内生产总值(GDP)而言,中国才刚刚达到日本在上世纪70年代初的水平。日本在上世纪90年代初开始了持续20多年的停滞,许多人担忧中国将在接下来的10到20年里重蹈日本的覆辙。China’s demographic structure was almost the same as India’s until late 1970s when China started to enforce a stringent family planning policy. Since then its demographic transition has been very abrupt. The proportion of people over 60 years old is now more than 12 per cent of the population and those of working-age, between 16 and 65 years old, has begun to decline by 2.5m a year. Furthermore, labour movement from the countryside to the city, which used to be a major source of growth in China, is drying up. According to the official numbers, agriculture still employs 30 per cent of China’s total labour force. But most economists, such as Cai Fang, one of the most prominent economists on labour issues, believe that the real number is much smaller. The average farm is tiny — only about one hectare — so most farmers have to take additional jobs outside the farming sector to sustain a decent living.过去中国的人口结构几乎和印度相同——直到中国在上世纪70年代后期开始推行严格的计划生育政策。其后中国的人口结构转变非常剧烈。现在60岁以上人口已经超过了总人口的12%,而劳动年龄人口,也就是16到65岁之间的人口每年下降250万人。此外,曾经推动中国经济增长的从农村到城市的劳动力流动,正在逐渐枯竭。根据官方数据,农业依然雇佣了中国30%的劳动力。但大多数经济学家(包括劳动力问题研究方面最知名的经济学家之一蔡昉)相信真正的比例要小得多。一般的农地很小,大概一公顷左右,因此大多数农民不得不在务农以外从事额外的工作,才能维持像样的生活。The official data on urbanisation are also problematic. These figures only count people living in government-designated cities as urban dwellers. So, while many villages in coastal provinces have become industrial towns, their inhabitants are still counted as rural dwellers. In recent years, employment growth in coastal provinces has been stagnant. The number of migrant workers has even declined in 2015. Although rural-to-urban labour movement will continue in inland provinces, thanks to the government’s policy aim to move 100m people into the city, it is unlikely to be a major driver for China’s overall growth.官方的城镇化数据也问题重重。这些数据只将在政府指定城市居住的人算作城市居民。因此,尽管许多沿海省份的村子已变成工业城镇,但那里的居民依然被算作农村居民。近年来,沿海省份的就业增长陷入停滞。农民工的数量在2015年甚至还下降了。尽管受政府促进约1亿农业转移人口落户城镇的政策目标推动,内陆省份从农村到城市的劳动力流动将会持续,但这种流动不太可能成为中国总体增长的主要驱动力。The first is to postpone retirement. The current retirement ages were set in the early 1950s. They allow blue-collar female workers to retire at 50, and blue-collar male workers at 55. This means that most women can enjoy a pension for 30 years, probably longer than they have worked for. The sixth National Census (these happen every ten years) conducted in 2010 shows that women’s labour-force participation rate dropped by 20 percentage points at 50. A sensible policy is gradually to raise the retirement ages until they uniformly reach 60.中国能够采取的第一项措施是延迟退休。目前的退休年龄是在上世纪50年代初设定的,允许蓝领女性劳动者在50岁时退休,蓝领男性劳动者在55岁时退休。这意味着大多数女性可以领取30年的养老金,很可能比她们的工作时间还长。2010年的第六次全国人口普查(每十年一次)表明,到50岁时,女性的劳动力参与率会下降20个百分点。明智的政策是逐步提高退休年龄,直到将男女退休年龄统一为60岁。The second thing China can do is continue to raise the educational level of its young people. Currently, less than 40 per cent of young people go to college. While an average young adult in the city can almost always finish high school (having had 12 years of education), his rural counterpart — including migrant workers in the city — barely finishes middle school (nine years of education). The return on education is quite high; one more year of formal education can raise a person’s wage by 10 per cent. On average, people in their 20s have had 4.3 more years of education than people in their 50s.第二项措施是继续提高年轻人的教育水平。目前只有不到40%的年轻人上大学。尽管城市的一般年轻人几乎都能完成高中学业(12年教育),但农村年轻人(包括进城务工的农民工)能完成初中学业(9年教育)就算不错了。教育的回报很高:一个人每多接受一年的正规教育,薪资就能提高10%。平均而言,20多岁的人比50多岁的人多接受4.3年的教育。The third thing is to strengthen research and development. Both Japan and South Korea became world technology leaders after they reached China’s per-capita income of today. This, of course, does not guarantee that China can do the same, but the signs are that it is on the right track. Thanks to its miraculous growth, China has accumulated a huge amount of wealth. As a result, it can afford to increase its Ramp;D spending -and fast. Last year, Ramp;D spending reached 2.1 per cent of GDP; by 2020, it will certainly reach 2.5 per cent, higher than in many advanced countries.第三项措施是加强研究和开发。日本和韩国在人均收入达到当今中国的水平后成为了世界技术领袖。当然,这并不能保中国也能做到同样的事情,但有迹象表明,中国已经走上了正确的轨道。得益于奇迹般的增长,中国积累了大量财富。因此,中国能够快速提高研发出。去年,中国的研发出达到了GDP的2.1%;到2020年,中国的研发出肯定能达到GDP的2.5%,高于许多发达国家。The reforms initiated by Premier Li Keqiang have created a vibrant financial sector that channels money to support innovation; private equity and venture capital companies are flourishing. As a result, private Ramp;D spending is now higher than that by the government.中国总理李克强发起的改革,已建立了一个富有活力的金融业,引导资金持创新;私人股本和风险投资公司正在蓬勃发展。其结果是,私人部门的研发出如今高于政府投入。So, while ageing is taking a toll on China’s growth, it will be balanced in the next 10-15 years by improvements in education and technological capacity as well as policy adjustment on retirement ages. China’s real demographic challenge will only come between 2025 and 2030, when there will be little room left for improvement in education, Ramp;D spending will be likely to plateau, and the baby boomers of the 1960s will have all left the labour force — even if retirement ages are pushed back.因此,尽管老龄化正在损害中国的增长,但在接下来的10到15年,教育程度和技术能力的提高,以及退休年龄的政策调整,将平衡老龄化带来的影响。中国真正的人口结构挑战将在2025到2030年间来临,到那个时候,教育已没有多少改善空间,研发出已进入平台期,上世纪60年代婴儿潮时期出生的人已全部离开劳动力队伍——即使退休年龄推后也是如此。To better prepare for that period, it is probably time for China to give up its family planning policy. The one-child policy was introduced in 1979: the birth rate in the country was 25m in 1987, 20m in 1997 – and 16m last year.要更好地为那个时期做准备,现在很可能是时候放弃计划生育政策了。一胎化政策1979年出台:1987年中国的出生人口为2500万,1997年为2000万,而去年已降至1600万。 /201506/378736新疆省整形美容医院做隆胸手术多少钱Amazon, the US ecommerce group, plans to ramp up its business in China by setting up operations in Shanghai’s new free-trade zone, allowing it to sell more imports, more cheaply to better compete with domestic rivals Alibaba and JD.com.美国电商集团亚马逊(Amazon)计划入驻上海自由贸易区(FTZ),从而能以更低价格销售更多进口产品,提高面对阿里巴巴(Alibaba)和京东(JD.com)等本地对手时的竞争力。The retailer follows software company Microsoft and a string of banks into the 28 sq km free-trade zone, set up a year ago as a test bed for economic reforms. Amazon hopes that by setting up a logistics warehouse within the zone, thus enjoying lower shipping costs and freight times, it will boost its wafer-thin 2 per cent slice of the online shopping market.一年前,中国在上海设立了28平方公里的自贸区,把它作为经济改革的一块试验田,已吸引到微软(Microsoft)和多家入驻。亚马逊希望在区内设立一个物流仓库,以降低运费、减少货运时间,扩大中国市场份额。目前亚马逊只占有2%的中国电商市场。“We’re going to have lower shipping charges, faster delivery coming into the free-trade zone, so there are going to be many benefits,” said Diego Piacentini , vice-president of international consumer business, speaking to Chinese television on Wednesday.“进驻自贸区后,我们的运费会更低,交货速度会更快,所以将带来很多好处,”亚马逊国际消费业务副总裁迭戈#8226;皮亚琴蒂尼(Diego Piacentini)周三在中国电视节目中说。 /201408/322968库尔勒小腿减肥多少钱

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